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re: more Black and Democratic voters in the first two days speaks volumes to me.”
Posted on 10/20/20 at 9:21 am to Weekend Warrior79
Posted on 10/20/20 at 9:21 am to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
If, it's less than 15%, then it's status quo but the AA population wanted to make sure they were able to get out to get OMB out of office.
If Trump were to go from 8% black support to even just 14% black support it could be the difference maker in a close state like PA. I ultimately think the election is decided by PA so a 6% swing in a state with a medium sized black population could be big.
0
Posted on 10/20/20 at 9:39 am to bod312
quote:not so sure Jefferson will go red... nor St Bernard. Pretty soon St Tammany will be the only red parish in the NOLA area
You forgot the 2 biggest parishes that will go red: Jefferson (#2 in population) and St. Tammany (#4 in population) and those ranks were the same in voters in 2016. Jefferson basically cancels out EBR and ST doesn't cancel Orleans but cancels the majority of it
Posted on 10/20/20 at 9:43 am to Jimmy2shoes
Anecdotal, but I am hearing many people are early voting this year due to covid and the hopes to not be in long lines. Of course they end up in a line anyway.
I am early voting and never have in the past.
I am early voting and never have in the past.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 9:47 am to chalmetteowl
quote:
not so sure Jefferson will go red... nor St Bernard. Pretty soon St Tammany will be the only red parish in the NOLA area
2016:
Jefferson was 55.3% for Trump and 40.6% for Hillary.
St. Bernard was 64.7% for Trump and 31.4% for Hillary.
EBR was 43% for Trump and 52.3% for Hillary, so Jefferson was more red than EBR was blue.
OP of course is the big outlier with 14.7% for Trump and 80.9% for Hillary.
JP % for GOP by year (Only did JP bc SB is much smaller):
2000 58.6% for GWB
2004 61.5% for GWB
2008 62.5% for McCain
2012 58.2% for Romney
2016 55.3% for Trump
It will be interesting for 2020 to see if 2016 is a trend or just a slight dip. I predict JP to be >55.3% for Trump in 2020 but that is not based on any known data or facts just my guess.
This post was edited on 10/20/20 at 9:49 am
Posted on 10/20/20 at 9:58 am to jmarto1
quote:
more Black and Democratic voters in the first two days speaks volumes to me.” I'll admit that the almost 200k women voters has me concerned. Bored, white women cause a lot of problems
Particularly when those women love "The View".......
Posted on 10/20/20 at 9:59 am to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
If Trump ends up with a larger than 15% of the AA vote
He ain't getting more than 10%
Posted on 10/20/20 at 10:03 am to Jimmy2shoes
I think It shows people are enthusiastic to vote but it may just mean the people who cares enough to vote normally are really excited.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 10:04 am to Jimmy2shoes
quote:
more Black and Democratic voters in the first two days speaks volumes to me.
That more people are voting early. The overall number of votes will not dramatically increase compared with previous cycles.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 10:11 am to ROPO
quote:
He ain't getting more than 10%
I agree it will be around 10%. Which is odd considering how much liberals dislike blacks. Biden sponsors laws to throw them in jail and Kamala made a living doing it. Trumps actually did criminal justice reform and released more blacks than anytime in history.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 10:11 am to chalmetteowl
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/18/21 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 10/20/20 at 10:16 am to Jimmy2shoes
So how did they vote?
Posted on 10/20/20 at 10:35 am to Jimmy2shoes
Maybe these are people impacted by the lockdowns and have a lot of free time?
Posted on 10/20/20 at 11:29 am to bod312
I was looking at how they did in the governors race
Posted on 10/20/20 at 11:33 am to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
larger than 15% of the AA vote
Why did you set the mark at 15%
Posted on 10/20/20 at 11:33 am to Jimmy2shoes
quote:
What do you think this means?
Nothing....just someone else with a "hey look at me, I'm important"
Posted on 10/20/20 at 11:35 am to Mid Iowa Tiger
I’m doing an initiative with my team at work to Get OUt and Vote and I’ve been surprised at the number that have early votes or indicated they plan to early vote, team wide and broadly diverse.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 11:38 am to elit4ce05
Hispanic and black voters for Trump have absolutely surged.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 11:38 am to Jimmy2shoes
It means that Trump won't win in Louisiana by as big a margin that he did in 2016. Everyone, both black and white are "woke".
Posted on 10/20/20 at 11:41 am to Mid Iowa Tiger
If they are simply voting early instead of on Election Day, then OK, no difference.
But if a large number of Ds still show up on Election Day in addition to all who've already voted early, then R's are in trouble.
But if a large number of Ds still show up on Election Day in addition to all who've already voted early, then R's are in trouble.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 4:38 pm to AnyonebutSteelers
quote:
But if a large number of Ds still show up on Election Day in addition to all who've already voted early, then R's are in trouble.
Not if the Rs show up too. Everyone gets one vote it is about making sure the right people use that one vote...
Turnout.
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