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re: Mind-blowing 2020 election math.....

Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:30 pm to
Posted by deathvalleytiger10
Member since Sep 2009
7535 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:30 pm to
Damn, put out stats like this and the China bots come roaring in don’t they...
Posted by TerryDawg03
The Deep South
Member since Dec 2012
15582 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:35 pm to
One of our local state legislators has been appointed as chair of an election oversight committee to address the issues in Georgia from the 2020 election.

This level of analysis, county by county, should be able to provide some evidence. I'm working on a county by county correlation analysis between mail-in ballot trends and overall trends. Basically, how many MAGA counties had major blue swings in their mail-in votes.

My county is MAGA AF and our mail-in ballots still went 80% democrat. I do not believe that for a second.

It sucks that we have these two candidates in Georgia for now, but hopefully we can get some granular analyses like these to the people that matter and show where it doesn't add up at the county level. It'll be hard for them to ignore it at the local level.

quote:

BIDEN:
81,000,000 votes (supposedly)
477 counties carried

TRUMP:
75,000,000 votes
2,497 counties carried

For comparison (2008)
OBAMA:
69,000,000 votes
873 counties carried

I am not Albert Einstein, but that shite don't add up!

TRUMP carried 84% of all counties in the USA, and lost.
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
9273 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:36 pm to
quote:

Look what the odds were around 10:00pm election night. Biden’s win was a statistical miracle


Source: Odds Shark

ETA:
9:00 ET: Biden -135 (57% implied win probability)
10:00 ET: Biden -115 (53% implied)
11:00 ET: Biden +210 (32% implied)
12:00 ET: Biden +170 (37% implied)
01:00 ET: Biden +130 (43% implied)
02:00 ET: Biden +150 (40% implied)

For reference, Trump was +550 at one point during election night in 2016.
This post was edited on 1/21/21 at 8:57 pm
Posted by TerryDawg03
The Deep South
Member since Dec 2012
15582 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:38 pm to
It's like Biden had Don King on payroll...

quote:




Posted by oldskule
Down South
Member since Mar 2016
15476 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:41 pm to
quote:

It's like Biden had Don King on payroll.


Yes sir! There are so many indicators that you cannot ignore them. Thanks for the info on Georgia and good luck.
Posted by davyjones
NELA
Member since Feb 2019
29846 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:42 pm to
quote:

One of our local state legislators has been appointed as chair of an election oversight committee to address the issues in Georgia from the 2020 election.

Amongst other things they, as well as most other states I'm sure, need to revise the poll observer law/rule to add specific distance up to an exact point the observers are able to get into better viewing distances of the nitty gritty action. Seems as if currently it only provides that the observer be allowed in the same "room" but as written now they can put you a hundred or two feet away where you can't keenly observe a damn thing. They set up on one end of a rather large building, and put the observer on the far opposite end.
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
45894 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:43 pm to
quote:

So those Biden counties account for 60% of the US population, yet Biden only won 51.3% of the popular vote.


I’m supposed to believe Biden got 75-85% of the urban vote?
Posted by tiggerfan02 2021
HSV
Member since Jan 2021
2841 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:47 pm to
quote:

6 crooked swing states and there you have it....election corruption at its finest.


It actually was 6 crooked counties in those swing states. That was the plan, and that is what they did. I heard a guy explain it shortly after the election, and he had done his homework, and had facts, quotes from Dem operatives, and other publicly available evidence to back up his claims. Concentrated on the 6 largest swing state counties in known corrupt areas which influenced enough electoral votes to flip the election.
Anyone who says this election wasn't rigged is a damn fool, or a damn liar.
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
9273 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:49 pm to
quote:

I’m supposed to believe Biden got 75-85% of the urban vote?

Only if you believe that he won less than 16% of the rural vote.
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
162175 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:49 pm to
quote:


TRUMP carried 84% of all counties in the USA, and lost.

McCain carried a very healthy majority of counties as well and got blown out

Some counties are much smaller than others

You don't need to be Einstein to know that
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
25482 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:52 pm to
quote:

It's like Biden had Don King on payroll...


I find it odd that on a sports-based forum people make arguments in a way that makes them appear not to understand odds making. Outside of the initial line books don't adjust odds based on what they think the outcome will be but what actual people betting money think. The book adjusts odds to balance the wagers. What you see in that graph is the dumb money that poured in when it looked like Trump might well win. They bet on the red wave, not the red mirage.

A lot of these discussions aren't germane to the OP since they have zero to do with the popular vote.
Posted by Crimson1st
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2010
20183 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:52 pm to
quote:

BIDEN:
81,000,000 votes (supposedly)
477 counties carried

TRUMP:
75,000,000 votes
2,497 counties carried

For comparison (2008)
OBAMA:
69,000,000 votes
873 counties carried


Yeah yeah but where is your evidence? Lol
Posted by HeadSlash
TEAM LIVE BADASS - St. GEORGE
Member since Aug 2006
49438 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 8:55 pm to
quote:


I loathed Obama - but can admit he was at least popular.


There was excitement about Obama and I understand how he won. Biden had nothing going for him, except the media.
Posted by Little Trump
Florida
Member since Nov 2017
5817 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 9:05 pm to
Obama cheated to win too
Posted by Wednesday
Member since Aug 2017
15370 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 9:20 pm to
Sure he did. He won a greater proportion of the “vote” (with no fraud at all in mail in voting bc that’s never been demonstrated with mail in votes) in populated counties than Obama, but won fewer number of counties than Obama. That’s completely believable
This post was edited on 1/21/21 at 9:24 pm
Posted by DevilDogTiger
RTWFY!
Member since Nov 2007
6359 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 9:28 pm to
Has anyone brought up the impossible adjudication rate in swing states yet? Asking for a friend
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
25482 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 9:32 pm to
quote:

Sure he did. He won a greater proportion of the “vote” (with no fraud at all in mail in voting bc that’s never been demonstrated with mail in votes) in populated counties than Obama, but won fewer number of counties than Obama. That’s completely believable


I expected you to take a closer look than a 30,000 ft view. How does one negate Biden outperforming Hillary/Obama in most of the deep-red counties in red states. What unbelievable force was at work in those?

Again I am just discussing the OPs contentions about the popular vote, the EV vote requires a much more granular discussion.
Posted by EA6B
TX
Member since Dec 2012
14754 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 9:48 pm to
quote:

Those billion dollar casinos and books weren’t built by people that get it wrong very often. Look what the odds were around 10:00pm election night. Biden’s win was a statistical miracle


Vegas got it totally wrong in 2016.
Posted by sumtimeitbeslikedat
Vidalia, La
Member since Nov 2013
4416 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 9:54 pm to
quote:

I am not Albert Einstein, but that shite don't add up!


Every single person in the USA (and the world) knows what happened. The problem is that a large, large portion of Americans (ALL dims and some reps) are completely cool with it... THATS THE MUCH BIGGER PROBLEM HERE. Most of the US are immoral reprobates.
Posted by CrabInMyShoeMouth
Member since Jul 2016
2479 posts
Posted on 1/21/21 at 9:56 pm to
I'm a bit of math nerd so I did what I do about 230 AM election morning. Based on the state of Wisconsin's population, the number of counted votes, and tally for Trump and Biden at that point time, I could reasonably conclude that it was nearly mathematically impossible for Biden to win the state.

Wake up, see the numbers after a "dump" and I'm thinking WTF just happened because it was a highly material statistical anomaly.
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