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Started By
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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 1:02 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/19/26 at 1:02 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Old maids in Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey will get married fast.
quote:
Russians lined up at the Georgian border amid rumors of mobilization after State Duma elections. Russian Federal Customs Service reported "record passenger traffic" at Verkhniy Lars border crossing. More than 19,000 people crossed the border into Georgia daily on August 15 and 16, and over 20,000 on August 18.
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Posted on 8/19/26 at 4:31 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The idea that Ukraine is going to give up the rest of the Donbas in exchange for peace is absurd. That was the "Spirit of Anchorage"— what Putin wanted a year ago.
I'm starting to think it's not as absurd as it was a six months or a year ago.
Ukraine has always been willing to give up the Donbass if it meant an actual end to the war. The problem has been that the Russians couldn't be trusted to honor the agreement and the West couldn't be trusted to back their own security guarantees, and since the Ukrainians weren't sure that they could defend themselves that mean that they had to start moving the goalposts in the negotiations just like the Russians do so as to not be taken advantage of.
Well, things change and now the Ukrainians can defend themselves and they are getting more and more hard backing, especially economically, and especially from the Europeans. So they can go into negotiations on a much sounder footing than they could previously.
The questions isn't whether ot not they would give up the Donbass - they will, in an instant, if they have real reasons to believe it will end this stupid war. The question is what they can get in exchange for it and whether or not they can defend themselves if and when the Russians renege on the deal and try this shite again.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 4:38 pm to Leopold
I have always thought Ukraine might give up the Donbas at the right price.
The right price had to include ironclad guarantees.
The right price had to include ironclad guarantees.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 5:11 pm to doubleb
quote:
The right price had to include ironclad guarantees.
Heh. They've been through that rodeo.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 5:23 pm to Tigris
quote:
Heh. They've been through that rodeo.
They never had boots on the ground.
Think Korea.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 5:29 pm to doubleb
quote:
The right price had to include ironclad guarantees.
Not anymore. That ship has sailed.
A mistake multiple people keep making is the idea that there is some sort of 'ironclad' guarantee - there isn't anymore, not when it comes to the West and certainly not when it comes to the U.S. Not when the current attitude is pride at cutting the support for the Ukrainians. We were the ones who were to guarantee the Ukrainians independence and we've flaked out, so no one trusts us to do it in the future.
So the Ukrianians have figured out that they are going to have to do it themselves - they are their own security guarantees.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 5:45 pm to Leopold
quote:
A mistake multiple people keep making is the idea that there is some sort of 'ironclad' guarantee - there isn't anymore, not when it comes to the West and certainly not when it comes to the U.S.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 6:04 pm to Leopold
If Ukraine were to be offered a peace deal that had them surrender the Donbas in exchange for EU and NATO membership with nothing other than that (No reparations, etc...) would they take that deal...I think they would jump at it.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 6:51 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
If Ukraine were to be offered a peace deal that had them surrender the Donbas in exchange for EU and NATO membership with nothing other than that (No reparations, etc...) would they take that deal...I think they would jump at it.
If the EU pledged troops to man a DMZ, perhaps.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 6:57 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Russians lined up at the Georgian border amid rumors of mobilization after State Duma elections. Russian Federal Customs Service reported "record passenger traffic" at Verkhniy Lars border crossing. More than 19,000 people crossed the border into Georgia daily on August 15 and 16, and over 20,000 on August 18.
That border is not secure at all. I've been offered an entire refinery on the
Russian side with a Georgian owner. It was never re-assembled, It was shippd to there viA GEORGIA IN 2016
Posted on 8/19/26 at 7:03 pm to doubleb
I think peace could probably be had for full Russian control of the Donbas, Crimea, Kherson east of the Dnieper, and the portions of Zapo under current Russian military control (which will continue to increase in size the longer Ukraine holds out).
Posted on 8/19/26 at 7:27 pm to T1gerNate
Power outages in Kyiv after deadly Russian attack
August 19, 2026, 06:51 PM
Just after midnight on Aug. 20, Russia launched another missile attack at the Ukrainian capital, targeting infrastructure facilities and killing at least three people.
The initial salvo of ballistic missiles and hypersonic Zircons was followed by a handful of sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles. A barrage of air-launched Kh-101 cruise missiles followed several hours later.
According to Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, a school and a children’s hospital were damaged in the Solomyanskyi district, along with several residential buildings. As of 3:00 a.m. local time, authorities reported three fatalities and 20 people injured in the missile strike.
NV
UPDATE:
Woman's body recovered from under rubble in Kyiv, death toll rises to 15 –
Ukrainska Pravda
August 19, 2026, 06:51 PM
Just after midnight on Aug. 20, Russia launched another missile attack at the Ukrainian capital, targeting infrastructure facilities and killing at least three people.
The initial salvo of ballistic missiles and hypersonic Zircons was followed by a handful of sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles. A barrage of air-launched Kh-101 cruise missiles followed several hours later.
According to Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, a school and a children’s hospital were damaged in the Solomyanskyi district, along with several residential buildings. As of 3:00 a.m. local time, authorities reported three fatalities and 20 people injured in the missile strike.
NV
UPDATE:
Woman's body recovered from under rubble in Kyiv, death toll rises to 15 –
Ukrainska Pravda
This post was edited on 8/20/26 at 7:10 am
Posted on 8/20/26 at 1:21 am to cypher
Tatarstan, again. Waiting for more definitive video.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 8/20/26 at 1:59 am
Posted on 8/20/26 at 1:35 am to Coeur du Tigre
Asset stripping continues. Six Borsch Burger fast food restaurants near his home have declared bankruptcy.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 8/20/26 at 3:40 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/20/26 at 5:12 am to Coeur du Tigre
This is it in one paragraph. Whether or not this production continues will determine how this war ends. From last night's attacks on Kyiv, it is clear that the campaign against the Russian launch sites is failing. This has to be corrected quickly and followed by a successful campaign against the production centers. If both of these actions fail, Kyiv will lose this war.
quote:
Ukraine's military intelligence estimates Russia can produce more than 200 cruise and ballistic missiles per month. Its stocks include 600+ Oniks, 450+ Kalibr, 400 S-400 missiles, around 130 Iskander-M, 120+ Zircon and up to 100 Kh-101 missiles. As of July, Russia also held around 50 Kinzhal missiles and roughly 50 North Korean KN-23, KN-24 and KN-30 missiles. In July alone, Russia produced 65 Iskander-M and 87 Kh-101 missiles.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/20/26 at 7:22 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/20/26 at 9:16 am to Chromdome35
quote:
NATO membership with nothing other than that
Ukraine will never be in NATO
Posted on 8/20/26 at 10:21 am to Leopold
quote:
A mistake multiple people keep making is the idea that there is some sort of 'ironclad' guarantee
A mistake multiple people keep making is pretending like there were any ironclad guarantees given to Ukriane in the first place.
They should have kept their nukes based on what they got in writing. It was meaningless word salad with no requirements.
Ukraine should ask for specific deliverables next time, if there is one. I don't want the US to give them that and have said so numerous times, but Europe should if they feel that's in their interest and it probably is.
Posted on 8/20/26 at 10:46 am to VolSquatch
quote:
A mistake multiple people keep making is pretending like there were any ironclad guarantees given to Ukriane in the first place.
Correct, if there were any secret handshakes, etc. they were never put in writing.
quote:
They should have kept their nukes based on what they got in writing. It was meaningless word salad with no requirements.
Yes, they gained nothing by giving up their nukes.
quote:
Ukraine should ask for specific deliverables next time, if there is one. I don't want the US to give them that and have said so numerous times, but Europe should if they feel that's in their interest and it probably is.
I suspect they have, but Trump isn’t going to do anything, and if Europe wanted to do something major, Putin wouldn’t let them.
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