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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 8/17/26 at 5:57 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/17/26 at 5:57 am to Coeur du Tigre
Molin has a complete explanation on what the Russian newly-mobilized troops will face.
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People will inevitably ask me about Ukrainian manpower. I'll answer using the example of the Donbas in 2022–2023. Back then, Ukrainians didn't need to maintain a massive force along the 2014 front line because everything was heavily mined and offensives were easily spotted. A smaller defensive force could hold a larger territory.
In the case of these new defense lines, there is roughly 1 road every 5 to 10 km along the line, meaning that over a 100 km stretch, only 10 to 20 points require active monitoring while keeping an eye on the rest. These lines don't solve the manpower shortage, but they fit perfectly into Ukraine's new strategy: fewer men directly on the front line, more men operating drones and robots from the rear while remotely monitoring a vast area.
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Is a breach via heavy firepower possible? Yes, and it's already visible! About 25 airstrikes have hit the line between Huliaipole and Orikhiv, but they are fairly imprecise and the blast radius isn't wide enough to create genuine breaches.
A strategy like this will obviously be central to Russian efforts to break through these lines in the long run, which will demand time and massive resources, all while 3, 4, 5, or even 6 additional lines sit right behind the first one.
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I believe Putin will not stop his war and that it will drag on for years. Therefore, it's clear that making Russian forces pay a human price isn't enough; every territorial advance must be made so costly that it's no longer worth the expense. Fortifications, drones, artillery, and mid-range strike capabilities are all part of this equation.
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To sum up, these defense lines form a grid behind the front line (the foremost ones sit 5, 10, or 15 km back). They currently serve no immediate active purpose other than preventing deep breakthroughs. Their actual use will come as Russian infiltrations draw closer. These lines do not replace soldiers, but they require far less manpower to man, allowing firepower to be focused on a few key routes.
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Posted on 8/17/26 at 6:31 am to Coeur du Tigre
Interesting analysis. Seems to confirm that Ukraine is planning to concede the Donbas.
Posted on 8/17/26 at 7:02 am to T1gerNate
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Developed by DG Industry, it carries a 250 kg warhead, has a range of 10–130 km and costs nearly three times less than a US JDAM.
Posted on 8/17/26 at 10:22 am to cypher
deeper and deeper...
It’s exactly what’s needed to hit strategic targets deep enough that Russia assumed they were out of reach.
What sets it apart from comparable systems:
Ultra-low radar signature — built to slip past enemy radar coverage
High-performance engine with electronic fuel injection
Strong resistance to electronic warfare
Configurable for multiple missions:
Deep reconnaissance
Fire correction
Precision strikes — either bomb-drop delivery or kamikaze impact
This is the same class of platform behind strikes on Omsk (3,000 km), Tobolsk (2,000+ km), and now — with an officially certified 2,000+ km range — Ukraine has a domestically built, mass-producible system matched to exactly the depth its Deep Strike campaign has already been operating at.
Certification means production scaling starts now.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. It’s exactly what’s needed to hit strategic targets deep enough that Russia assumed they were out of reach.
What sets it apart from comparable systems:
Ultra-low radar signature — built to slip past enemy radar coverage
High-performance engine with electronic fuel injection
Strong resistance to electronic warfare
Configurable for multiple missions:
Deep reconnaissance
Fire correction
Precision strikes — either bomb-drop delivery or kamikaze impact
This is the same class of platform behind strikes on Omsk (3,000 km), Tobolsk (2,000+ km), and now — with an officially certified 2,000+ km range — Ukraine has a domestically built, mass-producible system matched to exactly the depth its Deep Strike campaign has already been operating at.
Certification means production scaling starts now.
This post was edited on 8/17/26 at 10:26 am
Posted on 8/17/26 at 1:43 pm to cypher
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Another spectacular hit by the 475th Assault Regiment’s CODE 9. 2 operators.
Three MiG-31s destroyed, five more damaged, plus two oil-engine depots partially wiped out at Savasleyka air base in Nizhny Novgorod region. Retired Ukrainian pilot Colonel Leonid Tsekhanovskyi called it a very good result.
Confirmed by both the President and the General Staff. This base houses the MiG-31K, the only carrier of Russia’s vaunted Kinzhal ballistic missiles.
Getting those aircraft out of the line of fire is mandatory, yet they still got hammered on the night of August 15. Moscow’s “invincible” strategic aviation is burning on the ground while their pilots sit in shelters for one and a half, two, or two and a half hours at a time.
Russian territory far behind the front lines has grown dangerous. Every MiG-31 destroyed means one fewer Kinzhal missile can hit our cities. Ukrainian long-range strike capability keeps growing. Russian air assets keep shrinking. Simple math the enemy still refuses to understand.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/18/26 at 2:26 am to Coeur du Tigre
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Moscow faced its largest drone attack in two years, according to Russian sources. Mayor Sergei Sobyanin claimed 627 UAVs headed toward the capital, with around 180 downed over the Moscow region. Local reports cited a fire near the Kapotnya refinery, a strike on a Wildberries warehouse [Bogorodsky], damage to homes, vehicles and a transformer substation, while all four Moscow airports faced restrictions. The attack is still ongoing.
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Ukrainian drones damaged power equipment in Moscow region’s Pavlovsky Posad district, cutting electricity to more than 10,000 consumers and 46 socially important facilities, Mosoblenergo says. Agentstvo reports this is the first such incident in Moscow region since the start of 2026.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/18/26 at 2:29 am to Coeur du Tigre
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A Greek-operated Suezmax tanker, Skiros, was attacked in the Black Sea after loading Russian-origin oil at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiysk, Bloomberg reports. The vessel can carry about 1 million barrels of oil. It was the first reported attack on a ship that had called at the CPC terminal after a nearly three-week pause. The CPC declined to comment, while Ukraine’s General Staff said it had no data to comment on the incident.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/18/26 at 2:54 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/18/26 at 6:30 am to Coeur du Tigre
An interesting development. Is Kyiv getting a satellite feed of Russian TELs? There were written rumors that a number of these launchers were hit last week, but with no evidence it died down. Maybe the evidence is indirect -
Ratcliff is one of Trump's regular golf partners and has worked hard to modify the anti-Ukraine advice he is getting from Elbridge Colby and others.
LINK
LINK
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Defense News reports that U.S.-Ukraine intelligence cooperation has returned to a high level after the relationship was disrupted in early 2025.
Sen. Mark Warner said the intelligence relationship has “improved,” while other lawmakers cited a connection between Ukraine’s recent battlefield successes and renewed access to U.S. intelligence.
The cooperation is particularly significant for Ukraine’s expanding long range strike campaign. U.S. intelligence reportedly contributes to targeting packages for strikes against Russian forces in Ukraine and energy infrastructure inside Russia, while Ukraine continues to provide intelligence to Washington.
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‘Everybody loves a winner’: US-Ukraine intel sharing surges as Kyiv racks up wins
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The CIA has worked closely with Ukraine’s intelligence services since Russia’s 2014 invasion, growing a partnership built on assistance and training into a two-way exchange of intelligence, according to Forbes.
However, the relationship nearly collapsed in February 2025, when a contentious Oval Office meeting between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ended with Washington temporarily cutting off the flow of intelligence and weapons to Kyiv.
But Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., the Senate Intelligence Committee’s ranking member, said this month that the two countries have moved past previous hurdles and returned to a strong intelligence partnership.
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The senator said the current arrangement has helped Kyiv gain an edge, with long-range drones and missiles now hitting targets far inside Russia.
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Those sources called intelligence “the one thing the United States still provides free of charge,” crediting CIA Director John Ratcliffe with keeping it that way.
Ratcliff is one of Trump's regular golf partners and has worked hard to modify the anti-Ukraine advice he is getting from Elbridge Colby and others.
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 8/18/26 at 6:38 am
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:23 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:26 am to cypher
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If tweet fails to load, click here. On the night of August 15, the Ukrainian Defence Forces struck the Progress Rocket and Space Centre in Samara, the only enterprise in Russia that serially assembles «Soyuz-2» launch vehicles.
Two strikes hit Building 106A, where onboard electrical equipment, control systems, cable networks and rocket instrumentation compartments are installed. Building 106B, used for final assembly, is located nearby.
The strategic importance of Progress lies in its unique role. «Soyuz-2» is used by Russia to launch military reconnaissance and targeting satellites, as well as Rassvet satellites operated by Bureau 1440. Russia has no full-scale alternative to this production
Posted on 8/18/26 at 11:14 am to cypher
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A drone attack hit the Liberian-flagged, Greek-operated bulk carrier ANNA S about 20 nautical miles from Novorossiysk, outside territorial waters, Reuters reports. The ship was heading to load Russian grain and was reportedly attacked by five drones, sparking a fire and causing significant damage. All 21 crew members, including 20 Filipinos and the Romanian captain, were evacuated safely. It was the second Greek-operated vessel attacked in 24 hours.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/18/26 at 11:23 am to Coeur du Tigre
The only surprise here is that there was still $3.4 billion left in accounts by this month. What were they waiting for?
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“Nearly $3.4 billion (286.4 billion rubles) was withdrawn in the first two weeks of August, on top of the $7.3 billion withdrawn in July and more than $4.5 billion in June, according to Russian Central Bank data. Total withdrawals this year could nearly double the amount taken out in the first year of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
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Posted on 8/18/26 at 1:09 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Wonder how long this thread would be now if adminstration hadn't cut a lot of it out. I think they probably cut off at least 2000 pages.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 1:57 pm to jeffsdad
quote:5046 pages.
Wonder how long this thread would be now if administration hadn't cut a lot of it out. I think they probably cut off at least 2000 pages.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 4:18 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/18/26 at 5:13 pm to T1gerNate
quote:
Interesting analysis. Seems to confirm that Ukraine is planning to concede the Donbas.
Do they have a choice?
Posted on 8/18/26 at 5:20 pm to VolSquatch
Of course they have a choice, Russia hasn't demonstrated the ability to take it. Ukraine is probably going to offer to relinquish it to end the war.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 5:46 pm to Chromdome35
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Of course they have a choice, Russia hasn't demonstrated the ability to take it. Ukraine is probably going to offer to relinquish it to end the war.
I get that, but Ukraine wouldn't offer to give up land that they believed they had a decent shot of defending.
If Ukriane is actually open to conceding land that contradicts the narrative that they've turned any kind of corner because they've walked back their negotiating position. You don't start "winning" and then suggest worse terms for yourself.
So yes, if they are open to giving up land IMO they do not have a choice.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 6:33 pm to Chromdome35
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Of course they have a choice, Russia hasn't demonstrated the ability to take it. Ukraine is probably going to offer to relinquish it to end the war.
Where are you seeing that?
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