re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

quote:

---

Ukraine is fully capable of retaliating in kind and almost has to. It's been a pretty damn ugly war.

---

Ukraine is smart enough to go after strategic targets. Putin's old KGB hand book calls for state terror.

quote:

---

Putin is desperate now with a cratering economy. As a politician and autocrat he'll likely double down on more civilian strikes. How will Russians react when it's returned in kind?

---

They'll do absolutely nothing. Here's a native Russian to explain -

quote:

---

Those who say that due to the escalating Ukrainian strikes, Russian society is now soooooo mobilized and activated, simply don't understand a damn thing about Russian society.

If tomorrow NATO seizes Kaliningrad Oblast, if China from the other end of the country takes Blagoveshchensk, if a dozen missiles fly into the Kremlin—Russian society won't do A-SIN-GLE THING.

No, there'll be plenty of talk on social media and in cafes. But no collective action, no societal mobilization will follow. And there won't be lines at the draft offices either—that's all the ravings of a senile old Komsomolka. There's a solid reason for this, and it's called the atomization of society.

Atomization has been going on for several decades now, since the late Soviet era. In the '90s it intensified, and the Putin regime has actively encouraged it to boot. No grassroots activities, no informal groups, no collective actions. You don't need any of that. Just keep quiet and mind your own private business.

That's one of the main messages of the last quarter-century.

Literally everyone in Russia under 40-45 years old grew up and has lived their whole lives in conditions of total societal atomization.

People simply lack the skill for independent collective action. Collective activities only happen under direct orders from the authorities—for example, the mandatory turnout for state employees at "elections." Non-political volunteering covers at most a few hundred thousand people. Even going to war is mostly for the money—cancel the million-ruble payouts, and the flow of new contractors will shrink several times over; everyone knows that.

No single event can create the skill of collective action in society. For that, you need time, decades of living in freedom, an end to the usurpation of power by a tiny clique of people.

In other words, societal mobilization in Russia is impossible in the foreseeable future.

You can't wake the "Russian bear," because today, no "Russian bear" exists.

---

LINK

And coincidentally, also in Samara Oblast, Wildberries competitor Ozon was hit.

quote:

---

Ukrainian strike drones hit an Ozon logistics hub in Chapayevsk, Samara region, with a fire reported across 135,000 square meters. The moment one drone hit the facility was captured on video. The strike comes as Ukraine shifts from Wildberries to Ozon, Russia's second-largest e-commerce player, which controls about 30% of the market.

---

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

He's there to try to meet Musk. As his last meeting with Musk went very well - Musk shut Starlink access for the Russians - there is hope that some arrangement may be made to get Ukrainian Starlink access to Russian territory. This is of critical importance to stopping the current ballistic missile campaign against Ukrainian cities.

If not 'official' access, possibly an announced 'limited' access. This would only be a cover for the ICEYE feed bleeding over into Russian territory, which seems to be happening already, although in a limited range. The 'people's satellite'

In any case, Musk will want to meet with Federov to get updated on events since their last meeting. Getting the meeting is a major accomplishment by itself.

As an arrested development, classic Dunning-Kruger case who gets his opinions from Russian feeds, Musk will resist Federov's proposals. But it's a start. Exposing Musk to adult, emotionally mature behavior can only be good. Especially for the long term.

quote:

---

Former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov says his planned US trip is primarily tied to work with the Eastern Europe Foundation and new projects. He also plans meetings in Europe and the US to attract funding and investment for defense. Fedorov denied reports that he intends to seek US political support, saying Ukraine's internal questions should be decided at home. He said no one outside Ukraine should impose decisions on domestic issues

---

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

shite like this is why Musk is the person Federov is meeting with, not Trump.

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.