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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 6/9/26 at 1:59 am to CitizenK
Posted on 6/9/26 at 1:59 am to CitizenK
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If tweet fails to load, click here. If this level of accuracy was accomplished by Neptunes, the Ukrainians have improved their targeting functions greatly.
2
Posted on 6/9/26 at 2:03 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 6/9/26 at 2:11 am to Coeur du Tigre
Car bombs in Moscow... at least they have gasoline there.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 6/9/26 at 8:49 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
If Russia doesn't soon figure out a counter to the dominance of Ukrainian mid-range drones controlling their supply routes, this war will soon enter a very different stage.
We have already entered a different stage. The war shifted in late Jan or early Feb when Ukraine shifted to the offensive and started making territorial gains. Russian has been on the defensive ever since then. With that being said I do not think Ukraine attacking Russian supply lines will be the trigger that moves this war to the negotiating table. Ukraine's attacks on Russia's homeland will be what does it. Putin's legitimacy with the people has always come from him being seen as a strong leader who would protect their interests. Now that he cannot stop drones from attacking Russia and they are cutting oil exports when prices are high. He is proving that he cannot protect their physical interests or their financial interests.
Posted on 6/9/26 at 10:09 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
quote:
Russian forces have withdrawn from the Kinburn Spit in Ukraine's Mykolaiv region after Ukrainian actions severed all supply routes, according to the Atesh partisan group. The 337th Regiment, already depleted by redeployments, was left without reinforcements, ammunition, or fuel, and suffered mounting losses from Ukrainian drone strikes.
As I wrote on May 9:
quote:
we don't talk nearly enough about the increasing dominance of Ukrainian mid-range drones. If smaller Ukrainian drones can consistently interdict Russian logistics at the 100-mile range, and if Ukraine is similarly able to maintain its recent progress in destroying Russian air defense systems using these drones at that range ... well, there are a number of implications, but the biggest is that Russia will struggle to supply and defend troops in Crimea and the "land bridge" across southern Ukraine.
If Russia doesn't soon figure out a counter to the dominance of Ukrainian mid-range drones controlling their supply routes, this war will soon enter a very different stage.
Yep. And as some of is have said for years... Ukraine doesn't need to offensively drive Russia out of their territory at the cost of bodies; it just has to make it impossible for Russia to stay. They have not been fighting the same war since the second year, at least... and Ukraine was fighting the much smarter war.
As Russia withdraws and officially loses, after its tantrum missile launches that aim to destroy as much of Ukraine as it can... we'll get to its last stand: the great nuclear sabre rattle: "Our doctrine says if our military is defeated, we must use our nukes to 'protect ourselves.'" The Biden administration already backed down and essentially sabotaged Ukraine's first counteroffensive at this threat. It will be made again. Ukraine, Europe and most of NATO will not want to be manipulated by it. How will the U.S. react?
Posted on 6/9/26 at 10:13 am to WeeWee
quote:
We have already entered a different stage. The war shifted in late Jan or early Feb when Ukraine shifted to the offensive and started making territorial gains. Russian has been on the defensive ever since then. With that being said I do not think Ukraine attacking Russian supply lines will be the trigger that moves this war to the negotiating table. Ukraine's attacks on Russia's homeland will be what does it. Putin's legitimacy with the people has always come from him being seen as a strong leader who would protect their interests. Now that he cannot stop drones from attacking Russia and they are cutting oil exports when prices are high. He is proving that he cannot protect their physical interests or their financial interests.
Putin's return on investment in his insane military adventure is over a million casualties and a broken economy.
Posted on 6/9/26 at 10:20 am to Auburn1968
quote:
Putin's return on investment in his insane military adventure is over a million casualties and a broken economy.
No that is Russia's ROI. Putin has stolen tens of billions from the Russian military over the years so Putin's ROI is good.
Posted on 6/9/26 at 11:07 am to Lee B
quote:
Ukraine doesn't need to offensively drive Russia out of their territory at the cost of bodies; it just has to make it impossible for Russia to stay.
This, of course, is what happened with the liberation of the city of Kherson in November 2022. The cost of controlling the territory became too great.
And the problems that Russia is facing are escalating quickly in southern Ukraine. There are new reports that the Russian military has ordered troops not to use the major R-280 highway, because too much is getting blown up.
Ukraine just took out the Chonhar bridge for the 2nd time in a week, meaning that vehicles have to take a two-hour detour to get into Crimea. And the lines of cars waiting to buy gasoline are already miles long in Crimea.
What's happening is that Ukraine has taken out much of the Russian air defense systems in southern Ukraine, and now Ukraine can keep very large recon drones up without risk. Ukraine uses other large, fixed-wing drones as mothers to fly FPVs deep behind enemy lines, and then the mother drone acts as a signal repeater while the FPVs attack.
Ukraine is very slowly retaking territory in this area now, but I expect the pace to escalate. Crimea has always been the key to a successful outcome of the war for Ukraine.
Posted on 6/9/26 at 11:32 am to Auburn1968
quote:
Putin's return on investment in his insane military adventure is over a million casualties and a broken economy.
I have said it for over a year. Russia has already lost. Both sides are losers.
Putin’s war has become a total disaster for both sides.
Posted on 6/9/26 at 11:38 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 6/9/26 at 11:45 am to Coeur du Tigre
Ukrainian drones hit Chonhar Bridge once again
Andrii Konyk — 9 June, 18:38
The consequences of the attack on the Chonhar Bridge on the night of 8-9 June
Photo: 1st Separate Assault Regiment
The 1st Separate Assault Regiment reported that its fighters are monitoring movements and repair work in the area of the bridge and are "prepared to make long-range adjustments at any moment".
"This operation is just the beginning. With this operation, we make it clear to the enemy that assault troops can now and will conduct operations not only on the ground, but also at medium-range distances," said Profi, spokesman for the 1st Separate Assault Regiment.
Background: The Ukrainian military has attacked a bridge near Chonhar for the second time in three days. On 7 June, fighters from the 475th and 1st Special Forces Regiments struck it using Behemot drones and UAVs manufactured by Fire Point. They said they had created holes in the bridge with a diameter of about one metre.
Ukrainska Pravda
Andrii Konyk — 9 June, 18:38
The consequences of the attack on the Chonhar Bridge on the night of 8-9 June
Photo: 1st Separate Assault Regiment
The 1st Separate Assault Regiment reported that its fighters are monitoring movements and repair work in the area of the bridge and are "prepared to make long-range adjustments at any moment".
"This operation is just the beginning. With this operation, we make it clear to the enemy that assault troops can now and will conduct operations not only on the ground, but also at medium-range distances," said Profi, spokesman for the 1st Separate Assault Regiment.
Background: The Ukrainian military has attacked a bridge near Chonhar for the second time in three days. On 7 June, fighters from the 475th and 1st Special Forces Regiments struck it using Behemot drones and UAVs manufactured by Fire Point. They said they had created holes in the bridge with a diameter of about one metre.
Ukrainska Pravda
Posted on 6/9/26 at 12:06 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Another crooked real estate developer trying to play diplomat.
I'm no fan of Abramovich, but unless the UK Court can prove collusion with Russia in this war or any other felony, he will eventually get his money back. Less attorney and judge's fees. Yes, judge's fees.. It is after all the UK legal system, which is totally addicted to Russian money.
I'm no fan of Abramovich, but unless the UK Court can prove collusion with Russia in this war or any other felony, he will eventually get his money back. Less attorney and judge's fees. Yes, judge's fees.. It is after all the UK legal system, which is totally addicted to Russian money.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 6/9/26 at 12:11 pm to Coeur du Tigre
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If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
Nearly half a day after the car bombing in Balashikha, Moscow Oblast, the identity of the person killed in the explosion remains unconfirmed.
Different major Russian sources continue to circulate conflicting claims. One version identifies the victim as Lieutenant General Aleksandr Maksimtsev, Chief of the Main Staff and First Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces. (Photo-1)
Another claims it was Colonel Damir Davydov, head of a department responsible for missile and artillery ammunition procurement within Russia's Main Missile and Artillery Directorate. (Photo-2)
As of now, no reliable confirmation has emerged for either claim, and no firm conclusions can be drawn.
Posted on 6/9/26 at 12:18 pm to Coeur du Tigre
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If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
Couldn't figure out why there were more donations for the drones. Turns out, Margarita Simonyan's husband advertised my podcast with Misha Pravilny, and he even shared the QR code for the Rusoriz [Ukrainian] fundraiser across all of Russia!
Thanks, Evgeny Popov
Posted on 6/9/26 at 12:39 pm to Coeur du Tigre
A good read - the shot that brought down the first Russian helicopter at the start of the Battle of Hostomel, thus setting the tone that remains today. The bigger they are...
LINK, translate.
Second timeline / history of the battle.
LINK, translate.
Second timeline / history of the battle.
Posted on 6/9/26 at 1:01 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 6/9/26 at 3:50 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 6/9/26 at 7:06 pm to cypher
This war has taught me that bridges are harder to knock down they I appreciated.
I need to go rewatch Bridge over River Kwai.
I need to go rewatch Bridge over River Kwai.
Posted on 6/9/26 at 7:37 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
This war has taught me that bridges are harder to knock down they I appreciated.
I talked a good bit about bridges from a combat engineer's perspective in tOT thread.
They are both incredibly vulnerable and resilient at the same time. When hitting them with drones, bombs, or missiles, they tend to be able to absorb a ton of damage because the explosions are not surgical. On the other hand, a couple of sappers can drop a span with a remarkably small amount of explosives when they can pick the exact spot and direction of the blast. Pre-stressed concrete can be a nightmare because you have to remove so much "insulation" to get to the stressed members.
If you look at, say, the Huey P. Long Bridge, it could survive a lot of bombing damage unless you got lucky, but it is a cantilevered through-truss, so placing properly designed charges on the main bottom chords (they are in tension) would be very effective.
Posted on 6/9/26 at 7:44 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
When hitting them with drones, bombs, or missiles, they tend to be able to absorb a ton of damage because the explosions are not surgical.
Question-Do drones and bombs and missiles have large enough warheads to destroy a bridge if the can hit a so called sweet spot?
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