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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 4:35 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 6/16/26 at 4:35 am to Coeur du Tigre
2
Posted on 6/16/26 at 6:03 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 6/16/26 at 6:11 am to No Colors
quote:
Ukraine is building the largest arms manufacturing industry in Europe. Russia is losing their legacy petroleum business.
Ukraine will recover from this. It's highly doubtful that Russia will.
The first is a good point; the second is way off base. Russia is suffering temporary damage to its oil and gas business. This will be 100% restored within two years of the war ending.
quote:
Russia has a Muslim population of about 12%
Ukraine has a Muslim population of about 2%
I’d rather be at Ukraine’s 2% than Russia’s 12%, but the problem isn’t just their internal population; it’s what surrounds them. Russia and Ukraine will share the same fate vis-a-vis the Muslim takeover. Look at the map and who is having babies.
Russia’s and Ukraine’s economies are in shambles. When the war ends the Europeans and Americans will abandon Ukraine. Look at The Republic of Georgia. They were at 5.5 million people before their war with Russia. Now they are at 3.8 million and with a birth rate slightly below replacement level.
quote:
The Ukraine birthrate exceeds the Russian.
Not from what I’m reading. From AI:
quote:
Russia is experiencing a severe demographic crisis, with its total fertility rate dropping to approximately 1.37 to 1.4 children per woman
quote:
Ukraine is currently experiencing one of the lowest birth rates and most severe demographic crises in the world, with the national fertility rate plunging to an estimated 0.8 to 1.0 children per woman.
I’m not sure how reliable those numbers are and how much of Ukraine’s low rate is just due to being a war zone, but both are terrible.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 6:24 am to Penrod
quote:
the second is way off base. Russia is suffering temporary damage to its oil and gas business. This will be 100% restored within two years of the war ending.
You are displaying a startling lack of understanding of the Russian oil and gas industry.
Their main customer used to be Europe. Because obviously they're literally right next door to Europe. And most of their pipelines ran to Europe. Now their only customers are essentially India and Asia.
So let's talk about Nat Gas. All of the production that was going to Europe via pipelines is essentially shut in. They can't just reroute that gas to LNG terminals. Most of fhe pipelines don't go that way. That's trillions of cubic meters of gas that is stranded forever that will never make its way to market. Never get turned into hard currency. Russia already spent the money drilling the wells and building the pipelines. And now that gas has nowhere to go.
They only have two outlets. LNG terminals and a pipeline to Siberia (Power of Siberia 2). But look at a map. Russia has almost no warm water ports. And the ones they have are not close to their gas fields. Plus they're under sanctions so the international LNG tanker fleet won't carry their product. So they have very limited options here.
Then there's the pipeline to China. Obviously China is literally the only customer for this pipeline. So the price theyre offering is so low that Putin hasn't even moved forward with the deal. 90% of China's population and it's gas needs are along the coast. Not in far northwestern China where the pipeline would run. So LNG from Australia or the US is actually a better fit for China than Sinerian gas.
Essentially Russia's oil and gas export infrastructure waa all aimed and geared towards the EU. Which is the second largest economy in the world. And now they are shut out of that market essentially forever.
And you think they will recover from that in two years?
It will literally be the end of Russia as a modern geopolitical force. Two years will just be the beginning of their decline.
This post was edited on 6/16/26 at 6:29 am
Posted on 6/16/26 at 6:30 am to No Colors
quote:
So let's talk about Nat Gas. All of the production that was going to Europe via pipelines is essentially shut in. They can't just reroute that gas to LNG terminals. Most of fhe pipelines don't go that way. That's trillions of cubic meters of gas that is stranded forever that will never make its way to market. Never get turned into hard currency. Russia already spent the money drilling the wells and building the pipelines. And now that gas has nowhere to go.
The bold part is where we are miscommunicating. I agree with your entire paragraph, except for the “forever” part. Russia will be selling to Europe shortly after the war ends. I have zero percent chance of being wrong on this.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 6:32 am to Penrod
quote:
Russia will be selling to Europe shortly after the war ends. I have zero percent chance of being wrong on this.
The only way Russia ever sells to Europe is to give back the land they took by force. If they don't give the land back, they don't get their markets back. And I have a 0% chance of being wrong on this.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 6:52 am to No Colors
quote:
The only way Russia ever sells to Europe is to give back the land they took by force. If they don't give the land back, they don't get their markets back. And I have a 0% chance of being wrong on this.
I don’t know what world you are living in. You are ALREADY wrong on this.
quote:
Yes, Russia has continuously sold oil and gas to European countries throughout the Ukraine war, though the volume and methods of delivery have shifted significantly.The dynamics of this trade include:Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): While the European Union banned direct seaborne crude oil imports and drastically reduced pipeline gas, several member states have continued to import Russian LNG. In fact, EU imports of Russian LNG have actually increased in some periods to help member states maintain energy security.Pipeline Oil: Certain landlocked European countries, notably Slovakia and Hungary, have continued to receive Russian crude oil via the Druzhba pipeline, as their refineries are specifically engineered to process the Russian Urals blend.The Refining Loophole: Substantial amounts of Russian crude are processed in third-party countries (such as India and Turkey) into refined products like diesel, which are then legally sold to European nations.
You’re only out on this is if Russia gets kicked out of Ukraine. If they negotiate a peace it will include resumption of interrupted oil and gas sales.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 7:09 am to No Colors
quote:
It will literally be the end of Russia as a modern geopolitical force. Two years will just be the beginning of their decline.
Russia isn't shut out of Europe forever by any means.
The end of them being a modern geopolitical force is because they have a declining population, no innovation, and they manufacture crap that is decades out of date by the time it's in use.
Europe locking them out wont be a necessity because Russia is screwed anyway, in a traditional sense.
That's why they are going to at least attempt to become an arms manufacturer post-war and then we will have to deal with them again sometime in the 2040s or 2050s.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 7:19 am to Coeur du Tigre
Russian Oil Giant Limits Fuel Sales Nationwide After Ukrainian Strikes
June 16, 2026, 2:40 pm
Tatneft, one of Russia’s largest oil companies, introduced fuel purchase limits at gas stations nationwide on Tuesday.
Russian media reported that Tatneft has temporarily restricted gasoline and diesel sales nationwide, following similar measures introduced at its gas stations in Moscow and St. Petersburg over the weekend.
Drivers at Tatneft stations in the Russian city of Chelyabinsk were informed that gasoline purchases for passenger vehicles would be limited to 30 liters (8 gallons) per transaction, while diesel sales would be capped at 60 liters (16 gallons).
Truck drivers can purchase no more than 300 liters (79 gallons) of diesel fuel at a time.
Some stations have also reportedly stopped accepting bank cards and are requiring cash payments instead.
Kyiv Post
June 16, 2026, 2:40 pm
Tatneft, one of Russia’s largest oil companies, introduced fuel purchase limits at gas stations nationwide on Tuesday.
Russian media reported that Tatneft has temporarily restricted gasoline and diesel sales nationwide, following similar measures introduced at its gas stations in Moscow and St. Petersburg over the weekend.
Drivers at Tatneft stations in the Russian city of Chelyabinsk were informed that gasoline purchases for passenger vehicles would be limited to 30 liters (8 gallons) per transaction, while diesel sales would be capped at 60 liters (16 gallons).
Truck drivers can purchase no more than 300 liters (79 gallons) of diesel fuel at a time.
Some stations have also reportedly stopped accepting bank cards and are requiring cash payments instead.
Kyiv Post
Posted on 6/16/26 at 7:24 am to cypher
Posted on 6/16/26 at 8:32 am to Penrod
quote:
The bold part is where we are miscommunicating. I agree with your entire paragraph, except for the “forever” part. Russia will be selling to Europe shortly after the war ends. I have zero percent chance of being wrong on this.
Considering that one of the Nordstream pipes is not damaged and that the other three are repairable, it might take a bit of doing. However, Germany alone is a whore and will get back to importing from the cheapest source. Delivery of the barrel compressors rotors should be about the same time the pipes are repaired.
A biz friend very well connected in Moscow via his parents who are not impacted financially by any of this, The Russian economy is screwed just from 2022, it's even worse now going to a war economy. His education was at U of Moscow in Political Economics. His parents were both Soviet scientists. He spent most of 2022 setting up biz in one of the Stans for capital fleeing Russia. In 2023 he did the same in SE Asia. He came to the US in 2007 after being a director in Gazprom. He went to work for an oligarch who left Russia in 2014 for Switzerland. His view of this war is let's stop all of this crap so eeryone can make money.
As older folks remember transitioning back to a peacetime economy, with price controls removed put the US in rough shape for a few years immediately following WWII. Especially food prices soared.
This post was edited on 6/16/26 at 8:40 am
Posted on 6/16/26 at 8:44 am to CitizenK
quote:
Germany alone is a whore
Aren’t we all?
Posted on 6/16/26 at 8:49 am to cypher
Posted on 6/16/26 at 8:53 am to Penrod
quote:
Aren’t we all?
Good point but Germany will go for it first along with several others. It won't help Germany's manufacturing economy to be restored. The flight was on pre 2022.
In the early 2000's France would have gone from Nuke power plants to combined cycle because the later for less expensive. However, it would've had to be dependent on Russia so didn't replace any power plant with gas.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 8:56 am to cypher
Posted on 6/16/26 at 10:48 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
quote:
A Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber crashed during a scheduled flight in Russia’s Irkutsk region due to 'engine problems'.
One of the interesting things in the OT thread here, to me, was you guys with military experience/knowledge discussing the points where Russian gear simply wore out... artillery tubes, aircraft, etc.
We don't hear much about Russian artillery on the front, anymore... their M.O. was simply shelling villages and cities to rubble to the point that the Ukes had nowhere left for cover and retreated. I wonder if they did exhaust their tubes?
We know that Russia seems to be able to crank out the Gerun drones, but what about the larger missiles they fire into Ukraine almost every night? How are those supplies doing?
Posted on 6/16/26 at 10:59 am to No Colors
quote:
Russia will be selling to Europe shortly after the war ends.
I agree but not in the way you think -
- Russia will resume selling oil and gas to Europe after the war; BUT
- Russia will only get paid 10 to 15% of the delivered price. Just enough to keep the pumps running but more than the offered Asian margins. The remaining revenue will go to Ukraine to settle claims.
The remaining revenue will go to Ukraine to settle claims.
So in reality, Ukraine will be selling Russian O&G to Europe shortly after the war ends. Not Russia.
Not quite the Morgenthau Plan, but as there will be no Schacht Plan nor Marshall Plan to bail them out, Russia will effectively be kept as an extractive colony to the world for many decades.
Some populations must have a boot kept permanently on their throats in order to exist in harmony with civilized nations. Russia is at the top of this list. And there is no bigger, cheaper and more effective boot than a foreign-controlled GNP.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 11:21 am to Coeur du Tigre
You are a caricature of yourself. When Putin tells the Russian people that the West has plans to dismantle Russia into a hundred independent states it can isolate, pit against one another, and ultimately dominate and extract their resource wealth, he is telling them the truth.
Posted on 6/16/26 at 11:45 am to T1gerNate
quote:
When Putin tells the Russian people that the West has plans to dismantle Russia into a hundred independent states it can isolate, pit against one another, and ultimately dominate and extract their resource wealth, he is telling them the truth.
And whose fault would that be?
Posted on 6/16/26 at 12:21 pm to Penrod
quote:
. If they negotiate a peace it will include resumption of interrupted oil and gas sales.
There is no scenario where Russia just goes back to selling oil and gas to Europe like nothing ever happened.
Any settlement will include aubstantial reparations. The idea that Europe will fund the war machine that threatens to destroy them is ludicrous. Best case scenario for Russia would be to turn the pumps back on and 80% of the revenue goes to Ukraine.
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