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Started By
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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 5/2/26 at 12:48 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 5/2/26 at 12:48 am to Coeur du Tigre
1
Posted on 5/2/26 at 7:10 am to Coeur du Tigre
At some point, Putin will run out of other people's money....
Posted on 5/2/26 at 7:43 am to TigersnJeeps
Posted on 5/2/26 at 8:33 am to CitizenK
quote:
but how they are hitting refineries, repairs can be made in week. if not day. For the low pressure units it is like sewing a patch over a worn out pants knee tear
No. No it isn't.
Every hit and every repair job impacts the units and lower and lower throughput is a result. Russian refined product exports are down 60% compared to 2023 and down 30% compared to 2025.
Posted on 5/2/26 at 8:55 am to LSU0358
quote:
Russian refined product exports are down 60% compared to 2023 and down 30% compared to 2025.
Honest question...Exports are down but is production actually down?
Posted on 5/2/26 at 9:06 am to DMAN1968
This thread is dead. I think a lot of posters have come to the reality Ukraine isn’t getting any land back.
Posted on 5/2/26 at 9:27 am to texag7
quote:
This thread is dead. I think a lot of posters have come to the reality Ukraine isn’t getting any land back.
I think the reality is that the stalemate continues.
Russia is hardly making progress and both sides keep bombing the other from distance. Ukraine is being very strategic in their bombing; while Russia is lobbing missiles at cities and population.
The predicted breakthroughs never materialized instead Russian casualties climbed.
Rusdia is winning the same way the US won in Vietnam. It’s only a matter of time before they realize they can’t win any further.
Posted on 5/2/26 at 9:57 am to doubleb
My, how the worm turns. You just can't make this stuff up.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
In effort to further prevent Russians from accessing outside information, Russia has banned the import of satellite terminals, including Starlink.
The Russian government has imposed a six-month ban on the import of foreign devices for receiving and transmitting signals from communication satellites.
The official reason is "protecting national security"
Posted on 5/2/26 at 10:07 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 5/2/26 at 10:59 am to DMAN1968
quote:
Honest question...Exports are down but is production actually down?
Russia had to import fuel from Iran last year for farming and the harvest. Production would necessarily be down. I doubt that Russia has ever seen a need for massive storage of crude oil as a reserve.
Posted on 5/2/26 at 11:22 am to CitizenK
Posted on 5/2/26 at 11:33 am to LSU0358
quote:
No. No it isn't.
Every hit and every repair job impacts the units and lower and lower throughput is a result. Russian refined product exports are down 60% compared to 2023 and down 30% compared to 2025.
Part of that is sanctions so lack of buyers. My comment was about knocking OUT refining capacity, not lessening it per unit. A crude unit runs at just above atmospheric pressure. Steam for heating not high pressure. A crude column still in operation with 30 PSIG maximum allowable working pressure after being derated from 50 PSIG, isn't that big a deal here in the US after 50 years of wear. Due permitting and bureaucratic cost to replace, old pressure vessels in US refineries have sections cut out and patched as being cheaper than a new pressure vessel. This is routine and part of what reliability mechanical engineers do for companies like Exxon.
From videos, what is usually hit is initial crude oil processing in what they are calling AVU's, They will not be exporting raw gasoline, diesel or jet fuel. So, the unit can be patched and back online in weeks to a month.
What Russia had been doing is quietly JV'ing with Indian and Chinese refineries to make products for elsewhere from Russian crude to get around sanctions on products. Chinese "Teapot" refineries are privately owned and basically a crude unit only, what we would call a topping plant in the US. Their products are sent to other refineries for further processing. The former Enjet Refinery at St. Rose, LA was a topping plant which made bank on No.6 oil sales fur oil fired power plants. It was 50,000 BPD capacity. Shell Chemical bought it in late 1990's to take the naphtha cut to feed its Norco ethylene cracker, instead of making gasoline with it.
Russia made a lot of conversions via expansions between 2001 and 2014 to sell motor fuels to Europe with lower sulfur and higher octane than previously made. They mostly sent the bottoms of crude units to oil fueled power plants as No.6 Oil instead of cracking it into higher value products.
Posted on 5/2/26 at 11:37 am to CitizenK
BTW, some of what is being called refineries are NGL fractionation plants with a tail of pentanes plus. Some NGL frac plants in the US are erroneous called refineries by locals. All they see are the fractionation and stabilization columns so think it is a refinery.
Posted on 5/2/26 at 12:29 pm to texag7
What’s the updated death toll? Several months ago the CSIS reported that Russia had at least 300,000 deaths and over a million total casualties.
Posted on 5/3/26 at 3:10 am to JasonDBlaha
Must be a lot of tankers on the hook off Tuapse now, forcing them to Novorossiysk. Easy targets. Note how this drone manuevers to hit the engine spaces.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 5/3/26 at 3:16 am to Coeur du Tigre
Again with Primorsk. The AD shell game continues.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 5/3/26 at 3:18 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Ukraine’s head of the presidential office @Kyrylo_Budanov says Ukraine doesn’t believe Putin really wants a ceasefire:
“We completely understand the real purpose of Putin's call to President Trump on April 29 - they want the May 9 parade in Moscow to proceedpeacefully for a few hours and then they will resumethe attacks.”
“We do not want any truce to become a tactical deception by the Russian Federation. At the same time, we always respond positively to proposals for a real truce with the Russian Federation, if there are any.”
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This post was edited on 5/3/26 at 3:26 am
Posted on 5/3/26 at 3:41 am to Coeur du Tigre
Speaking of Tuapse and Novorossiysk, both in the Krasnodor Krai region, what is with the life expectancy rates? Below 71, males at 66.
Also, Rostov and Sevastopal rates are below 70 now. These graphs do not include war deaths. More Russian frickery with the data or what?
Regional rates falling as well -
LINK
Also, Rostov and Sevastopal rates are below 70 now. These graphs do not include war deaths. More Russian frickery with the data or what?
Regional rates falling as well -
LINK
Posted on 5/3/26 at 3:58 am to Coeur du Tigre
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Air defense in Crimea is almost non-existant now.
Posted on 5/3/26 at 4:03 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Zelensky said Slovakia supports Ukraine’s EU membership after a call with Prime Minister Robert Fico, who also offered to share Bratislava’s accession experience. The two leaders exchanged invitations to Kyiv and Bratislava and discussed the possibility of meeting in person soon.
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