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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 4/30/26 at 3:02 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 4/30/26 at 3:02 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Trump will follow Biden's lead and pardon everyone.
Again with the Fox News thinking. This is the big miscalculation of the current White House supporters: How is Trump going to pardon everyone?
This post was edited on 4/30/26 at 3:42 pm
1
Posted on 4/30/26 at 3:33 pm to Coeur du Tigre
What do you mean, he'll issue preemptive pardons just like Biden did, or has your TDS-rotted brain forgotten what Biden did?
Posted on 4/30/26 at 3:45 pm to doubleb
Exactly. I know I’m coming off as brash but I’ve supported and still support Ukraine but there comes a time where you have to be real about the situation and act accordingly to preserve as much of the country as possible and right now might be the best leverage they ever can get on the Russians. The Donbas is gone but what, 10% give or take? That isn’t coming back to Ukraine. I don’t want to see Ukraine stubbornly hold out past their leverage point and have something terrible happen like one of the main lines in the North, East or Southern sectors breaks snd the Russians push deep into the rear of their lines to where you could put Kharkiv or Odesa or another large city within Russia’s reach. Its also no secret morale has been a big issue for Ukraine and this bullshite about rotating units out now every 2 months will never happen because Ukraine has no real trained reserves which is why units haven’t already rotated. I say make peace with the Donbas as Russian now. Hell a huge part of Luhansk is pro Russia anyway and that's 1/2 of Donbas right there. Make Russia spend the money to fix what they destroyed since its their problem now and Ukraine focus on the land it saved which is still a very large area and they save their port city of Odesa as well. Enough Ukrainian blood has been shed and lord knows they fought valiantly but unless they get actual NATO boots on the ground and planes in the air, which they never will, then they have no prayer of pushing Russia off their land.
This post was edited on 4/30/26 at 3:48 pm
Posted on 4/30/26 at 4:04 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
What do you mean, he'll issue preemptive pardons just like Biden did,
These pardons issued by Biden were wrong and in many opinions only stand due to the fact that they have not been tested. They covered no specific illegal acts, just the possibility of arrest and conviction. Pardon law requires an established conviction, so how can they be pardons? Once tested in court, they will likely be found to have no basis in law.
On the other hand, what Trump is suggesting is pardoning known, specific criminal acts. Mostly involving corruption, some involving treason. Crimes that a future DoJ would be very motivated to prosecute. So this idea of preemtive pardoning is likely to fail. With a different President, it will certainly be tested.
Posted on 4/30/26 at 4:16 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 4/30/26 at 4:19 pm to cypher
Posted on 4/30/26 at 4:23 pm to cypher
Posted on 4/30/26 at 4:33 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Exactly. I know I’m coming off as brash but I’ve supported and still support Ukraine but there comes a time where you have to be real about the situation and act accordingly to preserve as much of the country as possible and right now might be the best leverage they ever can get on the Russians.
Without an ironclad guarantee from the US or from NATO, I can’t see Ukrsine agreeing to any deals.
Russia will regroup and attack again when they are ready.
Posted on 4/30/26 at 5:31 pm to doubleb
I agree fully but without Zelensky willing to seriously talk about giving up the Donbas Putin will never engage in talks and NATO isn’t going to guarantee security without Putin himself and not his cronies in the negotiations. Its almost a catch-22 but Ukraine is going to have to be the ones to bend more when it comes to land in order to secure that ironclad guarantee. Also Europe will not agree to any kind of security deal for Ukraine without our military involved because, despite their tough talk of late, they know good and well they can’t enforce it without the U.S. Poland is the new European superpower and I’d love if we made an air base in Poland to take the place of Ramstein in Germany. The French talk out both sides of their arse, the UK’s military is an absolute complete laughing stock and German politicians are all over the place. The Poles will be the new true power of mainland Europe and we should plan accordingly.
This post was edited on 4/30/26 at 5:34 pm
Posted on 4/30/26 at 5:59 pm to LSUPilot07
highly recommend this article that describes the importance of the Donetsk fortress belt.
The Importance of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt: Geospatial Intelligence Terrain Analysis
April 14, 2026
Ukraine’s Fortress Belt is the cornerstone of a militarily defensible frontline in eastern Ukraine. The Fortress Belt is optimized for defense across nearly every possible topographical and geographical characteristic relevant for military terrain analysis. The Fortress Belt’s terrain is well-suited for a strong defensive line, whereas the terrain further west of the Fortress Belt – the land that would serve as the new front line if Ukraine lost the Fortress Belt – is poorly suited to serve as a defensive line.
The remaining 19 percent of Ukrainian-held Donetsk Oblast is critical for Ukraine’s defense. Ukraine’s Fortress Belt is a concentration of four large cities in Donetsk Oblast and their satellite settlements running north to south along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway. The belt is 50 kilometers long (roughly 31 miles, about the distance between Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland) and had a pre-invasion population of over 380,000 people. Ukraine has spent the last 11 years pouring time, money, and effort into reinforcing the Fortress Belt and establishing significant defensive infrastructure in and around these cities.
Conclusion
The Fortress Belt is optimized for defense across nearly every topographical and geographical characteristic relevant for military terrain analysis. The human geography and natural terrain present a unique confluence of factors favoring defense, which is why Ukraine has picked this land to build elaborate fortifications for a pitched battle. If Russia were to gain control over the Fortress Belt, Moscow would occupy favorable lines for launching drives into vulnerable terrain that significantly favors attacking forces over defenders. It is for these reasons that the Kremlin’s negotiation strategy seeks to secure a political settlement in which Ukraine would surrender the Fortress Belt’s critical terrain without a fight.
ISW
The Importance of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt: Geospatial Intelligence Terrain Analysis
April 14, 2026
Ukraine’s Fortress Belt is the cornerstone of a militarily defensible frontline in eastern Ukraine. The Fortress Belt is optimized for defense across nearly every possible topographical and geographical characteristic relevant for military terrain analysis. The Fortress Belt’s terrain is well-suited for a strong defensive line, whereas the terrain further west of the Fortress Belt – the land that would serve as the new front line if Ukraine lost the Fortress Belt – is poorly suited to serve as a defensive line.
The remaining 19 percent of Ukrainian-held Donetsk Oblast is critical for Ukraine’s defense. Ukraine’s Fortress Belt is a concentration of four large cities in Donetsk Oblast and their satellite settlements running north to south along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway. The belt is 50 kilometers long (roughly 31 miles, about the distance between Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland) and had a pre-invasion population of over 380,000 people. Ukraine has spent the last 11 years pouring time, money, and effort into reinforcing the Fortress Belt and establishing significant defensive infrastructure in and around these cities.
Conclusion
The Fortress Belt is optimized for defense across nearly every topographical and geographical characteristic relevant for military terrain analysis. The human geography and natural terrain present a unique confluence of factors favoring defense, which is why Ukraine has picked this land to build elaborate fortifications for a pitched battle. If Russia were to gain control over the Fortress Belt, Moscow would occupy favorable lines for launching drives into vulnerable terrain that significantly favors attacking forces over defenders. It is for these reasons that the Kremlin’s negotiation strategy seeks to secure a political settlement in which Ukraine would surrender the Fortress Belt’s critical terrain without a fight.
ISW
Posted on 4/30/26 at 7:18 pm to cypher
Oh I know all about the fortress belt and how important it is to Ukraine but my point is they are having hell recruiting new men, that isn’t really up for debate anymore. Unfortunately they are going to have to give up parts they don’t want to if they want to stop the killing. Zelensky hasn’t moved the draft age down to 18 like it is here in the U.S. yet he badly needs at least 100,000 fresh troops just to hold the line. Their drones are keeping them on their feet but these are two punched out boxers leaning on each other. Unfortunately one guy is 150 lbs heavier than the other one. If giving up the remaining Donbas secures Ukraine an ironclad security agreement then it is Zelensky’s duty to end the killing in my humble opinion. That wouldn't be a loss either, I would say 50 months into a war with Russia if all they got was the Donbas thats a win for Ukraine.
Posted on 4/30/26 at 7:28 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Unfortunately they are going to have to give up parts they don’t want to if they want to stop the killing.
Unfortunately that won’t stop the killing, it just will delay it.
quote:
If giving up the remaining Donbas secures Ukraine an ironclad security agreement then it is Zelensky’s duty to end the killing in my humble opinion
Ttump isn’t agreeing to that so we know that isn’t going to happen so the war will go on.
Posted on 4/30/26 at 7:44 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
I agree fully but without Zelensky willing to seriously talk about giving up the Donbas Putin will never engage in talks
Again, this has already happened, multiple times. The Trump administration offered has offered up half a dozen peace proposals, all of which the Ukrainians said they were open to - it was the Russian's who said 'no.'
Ya'll are acting like the Russians are negotiating in good faith, and it's clear they aren't. So it doesn't matter what Z offers up, it will never be enough, so Putin and his cronies aren't getting anything. This war is going to go on until one state collapses, that's it and that's all.
quote:
I’d love if we made an air base in Poland
We've already got multiple, and with Germany's geographic position, the change to drone technology, and the fact that Poland could be Russian's next target only a fool would decide to build a brand-new air base in Poland.
Posted on 4/30/26 at 8:00 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Just how long do you think Europe is going to pay the bill for Ukraine to keep fighting now w that we have done our part and stepped back? A year? 2 maybe?
Well, let's do the math.
They are financing a new 90B Euro loan, so that's around the next year and a half already. And you know who's positioned to pay that loan back?
The Russians: Reuters: How the EU's 90 billion euro loan works
Yep, the Russians are going to pay to keep Ukraine in the fight.
And since the Ukrainians are now positioning themselves as Europe's answer to Silicon Valley, one where they become world-wide leaders in a technology that is going to go global and attract billions upon billions in international investment and completely upend the old order of military technology, I don't see any reason as to why the Europeans would stop backing them, do you? Especially since the Russians have openly stated over the years on multiple occasions that they were going to attack mainland Europe at some point.
So since it's the Russians footing the bill, and it's going to keep the war in Ukraine and not, say, Poland, Germany, or the Baltic States, then, yeeeaah, I see the Europeans keeping this up for possibly decades.
Wouldn't you if you were them?
Posted on 4/30/26 at 8:06 pm to DMAN1968
quote:
Bookmarked for January when the Democratic majority in both House and Senate are sworn in.
You will be lucky if this thread is around by then with the way it's been ruined.
This war will still be going on come January 1st, 2027.
If anybody wants to make an avatar bet, I'm down. I'll bet my school's logo vs. your school's logo for a year, through till Jan. 1, 2028.
And if I'm willing to bet, right now, double or nothing, that it's going on come May 1st, 2027 when I win the first one.
This war isn't ending any time soon boys. The only way it will is if the Russian government collapses before those dates.
Let me know if anyone is interested and we'll talk terms.
Posted on 4/30/26 at 8:11 pm to Coeur du Tigre
This is a genuinely interesting map. Is there a link somewhere to it?
Posted on 4/30/26 at 8:11 pm to cypher
Tuapse has been struck for fourth time... previous attacks on April 16, 20, and 28.
May 1, 2026, 2:41 AM
A fire broke out at a sea terminal in Tuapse following a drone attack.
A fire broke out at the Tuapse sea terminal following a drone attack, the Krasnodar Krai task force reported .
There were no injuries. 128 firefighters are working at the scene. 41 pieces of equipment were deployed to extinguish the fire. The task force did not provide any further details.
A drone attack warning has been in effect in the Tuapse District of Krasnodar Krai since approximately 7:00 PM Moscow time on April 30.
Kommersant
May 1, 2026, 2:41 AM
A fire broke out at a sea terminal in Tuapse following a drone attack.
A fire broke out at the Tuapse sea terminal following a drone attack, the Krasnodar Krai task force reported .
There were no injuries. 128 firefighters are working at the scene. 41 pieces of equipment were deployed to extinguish the fire. The task force did not provide any further details.
A drone attack warning has been in effect in the Tuapse District of Krasnodar Krai since approximately 7:00 PM Moscow time on April 30.
Kommersant
This post was edited on 4/30/26 at 8:17 pm
Posted on 4/30/26 at 9:47 pm to LSUPilot07
I think there is another avenue open to Ukraine. IF (big IF) Ukraine can continue to stalemate Russia on the ground by relying on both air and ground based drone systems, then all they have to do is sit back and wait for Russia to throw in the towel. Can they wait out Russia? I don't know, but Ukraine's drone strikes deep into Russia are having an impact on the russian economy. In that case, what matters is Russia's willingness to continue to absorb increasingly painful attacks.
1st - Russia is much closer to its tipping point today than they were 4 years ago. I don't think anyone could reasonably argue otherwise.
2nd - Even while Ukraine has been slowly bleeding out, they have been able to stop and stalemate Russia. Russia appears to be incapable of making any gains, even with Ukraine losing the attrition battle. This is due to Ukraine's dominance in the drone warfare space. I think a reasonable person would agree with this as well.
So I think Ukraine has a path to victory, but in no way is it certain that they can achieve it.
1st - Russia is much closer to its tipping point today than they were 4 years ago. I don't think anyone could reasonably argue otherwise.
2nd - Even while Ukraine has been slowly bleeding out, they have been able to stop and stalemate Russia. Russia appears to be incapable of making any gains, even with Ukraine losing the attrition battle. This is due to Ukraine's dominance in the drone warfare space. I think a reasonable person would agree with this as well.
So I think Ukraine has a path to victory, but in no way is it certain that they can achieve it.
Posted on 5/1/26 at 3:38 am to cypher
quote:
Tuapse has been struck for fourth time... previous attacks on April 16, 20, and 28.
May 1, 2026, 2:41 AM
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. 
They Can't Fricking Stop Us!
This post was edited on 5/1/26 at 4:37 am
Posted on 5/1/26 at 4:23 am to Leopold
quote:
This is a genuinely interesting map. Is there a link somewhere to it?
There's a lot of these maps that are put together almost as memes and can be found on such sites as Imgur, etc. However this Quora thread has a lot of discussion about demographics, ethnography, religion, politics and resources in regards to various future maps possible.
There's a lot of disagreement as to what a "Russian" population is and where it is found but one thing most agree on is that the unitary country of Russia as we know it today will not survive this war. All non-Muscovy areas will not withdraw as in the map I posted, but there will be significant changes.
Here are some fun ideas:
No Russia, No Problems.
This post was edited on 5/1/26 at 4:34 am
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