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Posted on 1/7/26 at 1:28 pm to T1gerNate
quote:
I think Russia would’ve satisfied with securing a land bridge to Crimea and the remaining territory in Donbas currently under Ukrainian control. I think Russia has a large enough population and sufficient natural resources to sustain itself economically and continue the war effort long enough to secure these limited objectives militarily and I think it will do so. Maybe I am wrong.
Maybe I am misreading what you typed, but hasn't Russia had a land bridge to Crimea since early in the war?
I think that if Ukraine gets out of this only losing the Donbas, then that's a significant win for Ukraine and an unmitigated disaster for Russia.
Posted on 1/7/26 at 1:33 pm to T1gerNate
quote:
the remaining territory in Donbas currently under Ukrainian control.
quote:
sufficient natural resources to sustain itself economically and continue the war effort long enough to secure these limited objectives militarily
I believe that this is not the case.
The last corner of the Donbas is very important to Ukraine. And it is an absolute fortress with terrain that strongly favors the defense. Russia cannot make progress against it. And it has limited time and resources to figure something out. That is why Putin has been basically begging Trump to make Ukraine give it to him. And even Trump has said No. Because "why would they give it up if you can't take it?"
It really has Russia in a bind. And the clock is ticking. They can't keep this up forever. They're slowly bleeding out.
Posted on 1/7/26 at 1:35 pm to T1gerNate
quote:
one of the most heavily fortified places on earth
LOL
Posted on 1/7/26 at 1:35 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I think that if Ukraine gets out of this only losing the Donbas, then that's a significant win for Ukraine and an unmitigated disaster for Russia.
I am not sure that the people who matter in Russia would not consider it a victory and many in Ukraine would not consider it a defeat which is why they continue to fight.
Posted on 1/7/26 at 1:37 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
I posted something a while back where someone was saying Zaporizhzhia is far more important. Losing it would be catastrophic, Kostiantynivka isn't nearly on that level.
And we're not talking about lightning-fast blitzkriegs here... A "major supply hub/important ground communication link" is threatened, and it takes a year or several for it to be taken, so all of that just gets rerouted by the time anything happens...
Posted on 1/7/26 at 1:38 pm to doubleb
quote:
Fifth grade teacher?
You already guessed lawyer in the old thread, you don't get to guess twice
Posted on 1/7/26 at 1:39 pm to T1gerNate
quote:
The pace is slow but it’s very heavily fortified areas we are talking about.
Yes, but also "The pace is slow but it’s very heavily fortified areas we are talking about." Think about that...
Posted on 1/7/26 at 1:39 pm to Lee B
quote:
all of that just gets rerouted by the time anything happens...
Not exactly. There are only so many road and rail routes in the country.
Posted on 1/7/26 at 1:40 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
The Cajun Navy probably has comparable naval power to Russia at this point
The Cajun Navy is better trained, has more firepower and better command structure... not to mention the gumbo and boudin rations.
Posted on 1/7/26 at 1:48 pm to T1gerNate
quote:
I don’t buy the idea that Ukraine is intentionally bleeding Russia as a matter of overarching strategy. If they are, then it means intentionally conceding cities (Pokrovsk, Mirnohrad, Siversk, Hulyaipole just in the past couple of months) for that purpose. Don’t buy that. Maybe I’m wrong.
Ukraine has fought to keep these cities. They have fought hard. Nothing wad conceded without a fight. And Russia is paying a stiff price for each city.
Pokrovsk- has yet to fall. Fought over for two years. Population prewar about 60,000.
Myrnohrad is still being contested. Involved in the Pokrovsk offense. Prewar population about 46,000.
Siversk- Fell around Christmas. It is situated on high ground and was a formidable place of defense. Population prewar about 11,000
Hulyaipole- Russia occupied slightly over half at Christmas. That is under dispute. Population prewar about 13,000.
Posted on 1/7/26 at 1:49 pm to T1gerNate
quote:
I am not sure that the people who matter in Russia would not consider it a victory and many in Ukraine would not consider it a defeat which is why they continue to fight.
Russia has barely pretended to be interested in peace. Ukraine either has genuine interest and unrealistic expectations of what Russia will accept, or also is putting up a front (just a better one than Russia has) by proposing conditions they know Russia will never accept and then being able to tell Trump "see, they don't want peace!".
Simple as. Both sides are fighting different wars and both think they are winning for various reasons. Either Russia won't be able to wage war any longer because of their economy, or Ukraine starts having personnel issues that cause operational failures. We've seen cracks in both to this point.
Posted on 1/7/26 at 1:51 pm to No Colors
quote:
That is why Putin has been basically begging Trump to make Ukraine give it to him. And even Trump has said No. Because "why would they give it up if you can't take it?"
It really has Russia in a bind. And the clock is ticking. They can't keep this up forever. They're slowly bleeding out.
It's very clear that Trump prefers Putin to Ukraine... and to Europe...
But the reason why is that he has this belief in Putin being "stronger" than Ukraine and Europe... if that is very evidently NOT true, he will let what happens happen,
Posted on 1/7/26 at 1:57 pm to T1gerNate
quote:
I am not sure that the people who matter in Russia would not consider it a victory and many in Ukraine would not consider it a defeat which is why they continue to fight.
If that’s all they were after, why did they drive towards Kiev and Odessa instead of just concentrating on building the land bridge and taking the Donbas?
Posted on 1/7/26 at 1:57 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
You already guessed lawyer in the old thread, you don't get to guess twice
You are falling in the polls.
Posted on 1/7/26 at 1:58 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Either Russia won't be able to wage war any longer because of their economy, or Ukraine starts having personnel issues that cause operational failures. We've seen cracks in both to this point.
Yes
Posted on 1/7/26 at 2:05 pm to T1gerNate
quote:
Big city, critically important to Ukraine’s defense of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Russia continues to advance. Nothing to talk about.
Before the war the population was 70k and now it's less than 10k. Does anybody think that, say, Kalamazoo, MI or Gainesville, GA is a 'Big city'?
But seriously, they've been fighting over this hole for years now and it's going to continue to go back and forth because the Russians are that stupid and useless.
In the meantime....
In the time it takes me to take a nap the US removed the leader of a country with a population of 26,000,000, has the largest oil reserves in the world, has ties to drug cartels and was given tens of billions of dollars in aid from Russia and China, including military hardware and advice. That, and another Russian ally is about to descend into chaos and revolution. (Anybody think Belarus might be next?)
So why would we focus on on a city that nobody has heard of, cares about, and is only going to continue to be a meaningless dot on this stupid and failing war for global supremacy?
Posted on 1/7/26 at 2:30 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Russian bloggers are in absolute meltdown mode over the capturing of Russian tankers. It is not only some obscure TG accounts, but some very large and infamous ones like „Two Majors“, calling for military means against the US. I would even pay them to try that. Others are even suggesting the murder of Trump. You have really everything. It’s total seething.
But they are just barking dogs. Russia has nowhere near the capacities to conduct a naval war, or any other kind of war. Their ships are even partially bottled up in the Black Sea, unable to even leave port without being blown out of the water. It is pathetic.
It fits to everything we have observed the last 4 years and we should finally admit that Russian boasting is rampant, without any real possibility to back that up. There are just empty threats. We have seen this in Syria, we have seen this in Venezuela, we are seeing it in Iran and we see it every day in Ukraine.
Russia is losing on a strategic level. It has been reduced to a political and military playball for the US, and an economic vassal state for China. Russia cannot even take a small-sized city like Pokrovsk for almost 2 years, while using its entire economy for warfare. Again, it’s pathetic.
As I previously said, I don’t see any need to negotiate with Russia anything. They are losing this (global) war and the full liberation of Ukraine is the only way to establish lasting peace. It must be made clear that despite all the might-is-right talk we have to bolster that borders cannot be shifted by force. No country has done that since 1945 except Russia. This is unacceptable untenable and - most importantly - unnecessary.
We can fix it by helping Ukrainians with everything they need. Furthermore, we can help other nations and peoples who are currently fighting Russian terror with money and arms. Seeing Russian allies failing left and right is the best proof that it works. Eventually, the Russian war machine will run out of capacity and everything inside Russia will collapse.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 1/7/26 at 2:32 pm to CitizenK
Someone needs to dub this to be talking about Putin instead of Sadam
Posted on 1/7/26 at 2:45 pm to doubleb
quote:
You are falling in the polls.
What is with some of you Ukraine first crowd and disparaging respectable careers?
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