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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 1:27 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 7/11/25 at 1:27 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
The proof is in the fact that most nations don't go to war with each other
... Then why aren't Argentina and Paupa New Guinea going to war?
In April 2025, Argentina exported $0 and imported $919 from Papua New Guinea, resulting in a negative trade balance of $919.
quote:
I think the online discourse on asking for proof is getting insane. It's always people who, like you, give maybe 2 (usually highly flawed) examples, then ask for a lengthy peer reviewed study in response. Do people now have zero awareness about what they are asking others online for?
It is because people (like you) state things that they expect others to accept as fact.
It's one thing to say "I believe X is true"
But when people say
quote:
but its been highly accurate for the most part.
That easily begs the question of ok when?
What you call "flawed examples" are counterpoints.
Like how you challenged K about his claim of overall increases in peace with a set of counterpoints.
Is not the major point of a forum to discuss?
Discussion involves trading point and counterpoint.
If your response is really well it seems right to me, but I don't want to look into it, that's a valid response.
1
Posted on 7/11/25 at 1:27 pm to Narax
quote:
None of that is correct...
He didn't even spell rocket right.
Patriot was initially for air defense against strategic bombers but the secret sauce is the superior radar it uses for missile defense and plenty of upgrades since the 1970's.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 1:30 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
And you think that is because of the Neocons?
I do not.
Number one reason MAD.
Number two NATO
Number 3 the dominance of the US
Number 4 luck
Posted on 7/11/25 at 1:35 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Patriot was initially for air defense against strategic bombers but the secret sauce is the superior radar it uses for missile defense and plenty of upgrades since the 1970's.
Fully agreed, it's been shooting down ballistic missiles since Gulf I.
Like most US systems it's been massively updated to take on new missions.
It was most recently used to my knowledge in Qatar to defend our base against Iranian retaliation strikes.
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/iranian-ballistic-missile-hit-al-udeid-air-base-qatar/
Like you said later, each of the US defense systems fills a niche in capability, mobility, and cost that the others don't.
More THAAD does not mean less of a need for Patriot.
They have different jobs.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 1:37 pm to CitizenK
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
According to UNIAN, citing sources in Ukraine’s HUR, a gas pipeline exploded in Russia’s Khanty-Mansi region on July 10, sparking a major fire and cutting supply to defense plants in Chelyabinsk, Orenburg and Sverdlovsk. Estimated losses exceed $76M. Repairs may take up to a month.
LINK
Posted on 7/11/25 at 2:01 pm to Coeur du Tigre
And we think US airports are bad...
LINK
quote:
A widespread 'collapse' of Russian airports triggered by Ukrainian drones resulted from a cascading series of disruptions. Airports lacked stairs to disembark passengers, aircrew exceeded their regulation hours, and planes ran out of space to park.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
A Ukrainian drone attack on targets in the Moscow region on 5 July triggered Russia's 'Carpet' plan – when aircraft are grounded until the alert is over. On this occasion, however, it triggered chaos across 10 timezones, costing an estimated 20 billion rubles ($256 million).
3/ Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport was among the worst affected. It was effectively shut down between 5 to 7 July, with thousands of passengers delayed by many hours. The incident shows how Ukraine's attacks can cause huge economic damage even without physically impacting targets.
4/ The Baza Telegram channel has provided a detailed explanation of what went wrong:
5/ "According to Baza's sources, during the aviation collapse that lasted from July 5 to 7, Sheremetyevo Airport faced a major shortage of boarding stairs and maintenance personnel: there simply wasn't enough special equipment and people involved.
6/ "The thing is that during the pandemic and the Special Military Operation, the number of flights decreased significantly.
7/ "According to sources, in order to avoid unnecessary costs for servicing unused equipment, such as boarding stairs, the airport simply took them out of service.
8/ "At the same time, it is impossible to quickly put the stairs back into operation: they must undergo special maintenance. As a result, due to their shortage, people had to wait for several hours for the stairs
9/ "In addition, the lack of parking spaces added to the problems. Airplanes maneuvered on taxiways, waiting for space to become available, and then waited for the ramps to be delivered. Some flights had to be sent to neighbouring terminals.
10/ "In turn, due to delays, pilots and flight attendants used up their working hours. At the same time, due to the fact that the delayed flights were sent first, those flights that were supposed to depart on schedule were also delayed.
11/ "Because of this, it turned out that pilots and flight attendants of all flights worked more hours and quickly used up their working hours. Working in excess of the fixed norm is prohibited, and in connection with this, there was a shortage of employees.
12/ "At the same time, many ran out of working hours in other cities. As a result, they could no longer return back as employees; a new crew had to be assigned to their places. The previous workers got to the departure point of the next flight as passengers.
13/ "According to sources, Sheremetyevo also had a shortage of towing vehicle drivers. Similar difficulties affected the provision of in-flight meals. Suppliers could not cope with the workload due to a shortage of cars and employees to deliver new food and clean up used dishes.
14/ "As a result, some planes had to wait for several hours to be loaded with food. Thus, many of today's flights were not provided with food.
15/ "According to Rosaviatsia [the Federal Air Transport Agency], from 5 to 7 July, airlines cancelled 485 flights, 88 were redirected to alternate airfields. Also, 1,900 departure and arrival flights were delayed.
16/ "Passengers were issued 43,000 ticket refunds, 94,000 people were accommodated in hotels. At the same time, 199,000 vouchers for drinks and 155,000 for food were issued.
17/ "UPD. The Sheremetyevo press service claims that, in fact, Sheremetyevo and its subsidiaries have enough equipment and personnel, passengers were understanding of the situation (and even sang songs), and "work carried out at a high level" and the additional resources of…
18/ …personnel and equipment brought in allowed the schedule to be met in a relatively short time." /end
LINK
Posted on 7/11/25 at 2:11 pm to doubleb
Trump's office announced today that POTUS is going to make a "major" announcement about the Ukraine/Russia war on Monday.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 2:48 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
That is Ukraine's path to a decent peace deal. But we haven't seen that Ukraine can sustain those types of victories.
We haven't seen that Russia can sustain anything, either, though... that's why it's a war that's continuing.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 2:53 pm to LSURussian
This man, the Czech Republic President, just promised further F-16 training support for the Ukrainian Air Force. Great stuff but hopefully he leaves the flying to the air force.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 3:02 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 7/11/25 at 3:10 pm to doubleb
quote:
Number 4 luck
A number of police actions by our military. We damned sure occupied Haiti, Dominican Republic among a few. Pre WWII we occupied several Central American nations. The US was once a non soy boy nation.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 3:12 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
According to UNIAN, citing sources in Ukraine’s HUR, a gas pipeline exploded in Russia’s Khanty-Mansi region on July 10, sparking a major fire and cutting supply to defense plants in Chelyabinsk, Orenburg and Sverdlovsk. Estimated losses exceed $76M. Repairs may take up to a month.
How much lost production and cash flow at those defense plants is the big question or additional cost to reroute other sources.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 3:18 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Trump's office announced today that POTUS is going to make a "major" announcement about the Ukraine/Russia war on Monday.
I saw that. I don’t know what Trump is going to say, but I’m guessing that Putin won’t like it.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 3:47 pm to Narax
quote:
In 2010, Ukraine's largest trade Partner was Russia.
In 1939, Germany was Poland's largest trade partner.
in 1930, China (along with the US) was a major trading partner with Japan.
In 2005, Georgia's main trade partner was Russia
Any general rule will be broken when, instead of ordinary governments, you're dealing with sociopathic dictators (or Emperors) whose motivations don't even really make much practical sense.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 4:32 pm to Lee B
quote:
Any general rule will be broken when, instead of ordinary governments, you're dealing with sociopathic dictators (or Emperors) whose motivations don't even really make much practical sense.
Now that I think is a strong indication of why peace is much more common post WWII.
Once you have a people who elect their own government, War becomes a political risk.
The British voted Churchill out before WWII ended.
Lincoln had to win an election during the Civil War.
Vietnam ended Johnson.
Eisenhower won during Korea.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 4:40 pm to Lee B
Well, the "Checkists"
have finished their investigation of the ammonia tanker that sank earlier this week. As expected, large holes with inward-bent edges were found in the bottom of the engine spaces. That's the seventh ship in Russian service mined during the Special Operation. But it could be worse. They could be the demurrage analysts on this one. I'm very sure the insurer has already found numerous violations of their contract, so any calls to them get transferred straight to their attorneys. And neither the Belgian charterer nor the Greek owner will budge a freaking inch and the Russians...
They will probably claim the vessel as salvage and cut it up for scrap after they get it re-floated. And then send a claim to the owners for damages in recovery. No thanks. In the immortal words of a client in Houston, "F. this. I'd rather whittle a beak and go peck shite with the chickens." quote:
"During the inspection of the vessel with the help of a marine drone, specialists found two holes on it (their size is one and a half meters) in the area of the engine room at a depth of 6 and 7 meters. According to sources, previously, the metal was bent inward, which may indicate that the explosion occurred from the outside of the tanker. However, this information has not yet been officially confirmed," Baza [Telegram] wrote.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 7/11/25 at 4:46 pm to Lee B
Based on what we know it's safe to assume that they think they can. They are certainly operating that way
Posted on 7/11/25 at 4:54 pm to Narax
quote:
What you call "flawed examples" are counterpoints.
You have a handful of counterpoints with hundreds of years of data to pull from.
quote:
Is not the major point of a forum to discuss?
Discussion involves trading point and counterpoint.
I agree! And that's the problem. It's often not a trade, it's a one way demand of some kind of "proof" with no buy in or effort required of the one "challenging" a claim.
quote:
If your response is really well it seems right to me, but I don't want to look into it, that's a valid response.
Well originally you said it was incorrect based on like 3 examples so forgive me if I don't believe any kind of "proof" (that you'll almost assuredly have some issue with anyway) is going to actually sway you
Posted on 7/11/25 at 5:03 pm to Narax
quote:
Now that I think is a strong indication of why peace is much more common post WWII.
Once you have a people who elect their own government, War becomes a political risk.
The British voted Churchill out before WWII ended.
Lincoln had to win an election during the Civil War.
Vietnam ended Johnson.
Eisenhower won during Korea.
Yes. And that's why a condition of being admitted into NATO and the EU is representational Democracy (though once in, some have kind of backpedaled... namely Orban in Hungary as far as the EU, and in NATO Orban plus Erdogan in Turkey are causing headaches)...
But yes, aggression is tamed in Democracies. Probably half of the population will instantly oppose unjustified military actions. Even Israel has an opposition trying to reign in Netanyahu.
Posted on 7/11/25 at 5:23 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
You have a handful of counterpoints with hundreds of years of data to pull from.
So you want me to write a paper on the rest of them?
Those capture the major non civil wars of the 20th century that involved crossing a border.
I covered WWI, WW2
(Israel, India/Pakistan, Korea and Vietnam were civil wars between sides in the same recently split colonial economic system.
Those would be free points, for example in 1935, the major trading partners with British Mandate Palestine were Egypt, Syria and Iraq.
Another point is Russia being most of Afghanistan's trade pre Soviet invasion.
US vs Iraq I was due to Iraq invading what was basically an oil well owned by the US. But The US was Iraq's second largest trading partner prior to Gulf I
Iraq II and Afghanistan did not have significant trade due to previous issues.
Ukraine and Georgia. Covered earlier.
I'm struggling to find any cross border other invasion where one of the counties was not a top 2 trading partner of the other. (again discounting civil wars who naturally are domestic economically rather than trade)
quote:
I agree! And that's the problem. It's often not a trade, it's a one way demand of some kind of "proof" with no buy in or effort required of the one "challenging" a claim.
I think I've put in some reasonable effort looking through trade balances of number of countries in the years before they went to war.
quote:
Well originally you said it was incorrect based on like 3 examples so forgive me if I don't believe any kind of "proof" (that you'll almost assuredly have some issue with anyway) is going to actually sway you
I don't think that's quite fair, I've been looking though the data honestly: in 2 cases I see so far, (Gulf II, Afghanistan), a lack of trade in general in Afghanistan, and the UN Oil for Food Program in Iraq complicates things.
In the Iraq/Iran case, they had a border issue dating back since pre independence of Iraq, so that might be a case where no trade made war easier, but it still took 50 years to break out.
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