re: It's all about the Strait of Hormuz and Iran selling oil

No he needs to do exactly what he's doing. Consequences that are as predictable as the sun coming up and going down. You hit anyone, we smash your arse. We've left the bridges and power plants for next to last. Last is the oilfields. I doubt we get there. I hope CIA and Mossad are running guns into there by the mile of trucks.

I hate this is happening just like everyone else, but it's long overdue. They can't be allowed to become another North Korea. Those people are fricked bigtime. A whole section of the species held back from contributing or advancing in any way. Iran would be even a bigger tragedy.

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Last is the oilfields. I doubt we get there.

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If we get there it won't be for any good reason.

And I also doubt it comes to that.

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But that requires not believing Netanyahu

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I'm hoping Trump has learned his lesson not to trust him without significant other intelligence corroborating anything he says.

You have to admit, Trump has done everything possible to avoid what's about to happen. Considering you accept this is about the nuke of course which I do. He's trying pretty damn hard not to put boots on sand. I appreciate that, even if they don't. The man is now holding off the Hawks in his own circle. That's leadership. That's Kennedy in the Cuban Crisis stuff.

They had the chance to avoid this, over, and over, and over, and over.

It was a mistake on his part and for what its worth, some of his instincts with regards to the Middle East have been spot on. I think his willingness to dangle money and investments to the Gulf that he did from his first term should have continued into his second by even including the Iranians. It's clear that they care about sanctions relief far more than they care about religion or ideology, as their justifications when faced with the bombing campaign are all about that, in opposition to the justifications they used when they were in Syria, where they would invoke the protection of Muslim minorities pretty often. They are just the Shia version of the KSA.

I think the conflict is foolish but Trump has certainly shown restraint instead of just going the scorched earth approach which wouldn't really yield any results anyway

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And so y’all seriously think there wasn’t any American intelligence input on the subject?

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With respect to Iran's actual progress towards the bomb? Well, I don't think it matters, because one, regardless, Netanyahu will always say that Iran is close to the bomb. In the 1990's, it was less than 5. In the early 2000's, it was less than 2. In 2012, I believe he said they were months away. It's in what he thinks is Israel's security interest to repeat that.

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I hate this is happening just like everyone else, but it's long overdue. They can't be allowed to become another North Korea.

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North Korea is the greater nuclear danger, but Iran is the harder and more dangerous country for us to fight in a conventional regional war.

We have prepared for war on the Korean Peninsula since 1953. The theater is geographically concentrated, South Korea has a powerful military, and we have permanent commands, established logistics and long-developed contingency plans through South Korea, Japan, Guam and Hawaii. North Korea could cause horrific damage, but much of its conventional force is old and its ability to sustain a long war is a major weakness.

Iran is a much messier problem. It is larger, has strategic depth, dispersed missile and drone forces, regional militias and leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. Our Gulf bases are inside its strike range, and our access depends on governments that fear Iranian retaliation. Fighting Iran means defending bases, cities, shipping lanes and energy infrastructure across an entire region while burning through expensive interceptors and precision weapons.

North Korea could make the opening of a war catastrophically bloody, especially because of its nuclear arsenal. But treating Iran as the easier alternative to “another North Korea” seems backward to me.

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The man is now holding off the Hawks in his own circle. That's leadership. That's Kennedy in the Cuban Crisis stuff.

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Good God, are you serious??

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Every silly idea about this conflict is based on the naive idea that the Iranians are incapable of retaliating.

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Because they believe the lie that we have destroyed Irans military infrastructure. I can remember we were told on here that this wasn’t even a ‘war’ and it would only last “two weeks”. Then it was “two months”. I think Trump has actually declared victory a few times in Tweets despite Iran still being able to attack its neighbors and ships in the strait. This week marks five months of a war that was supposed to last “two weeks” which is ironic because Trump also told us during Covid it was going to be “two weeks” to slow the spread which turned into many many months of tyrannical draconian lockdowns, policies, and measures that didn’t work. It’s almost if Trump is very bad at this kind of stuff.