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re: It's all about the Strait of Hormuz and Iran selling oil

Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:20 pm to
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
175512 posts
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:20 pm to
quote:


It's also naive to think the regime isn't more robust and resilient than they actually are.

Correct. Their structure is certainly not typical. And that very structure makes them more difficult to defeat. They have been preparing for this fight for decades. There is a reason why other presidents haven't started conflicts with Iran. Trump isn't brave or brilliant for bucking that trend. He's a sucker.
Posted by Captain Rumbeard
Member since Jan 2014
7370 posts
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:22 pm to
No he needs to do exactly what he's doing. Consequences that are as predictable as the sun coming up and going down. You hit anyone, we smash your arse. We've left the bridges and power plants for next to last. Last is the oilfields. I doubt we get there. I hope CIA and Mossad are running guns into there by the mile of trucks.

I hate this is happening just like everyone else, but it's long overdue. They can't be allowed to become another North Korea. Those people are fricked bigtime. A whole section of the species held back from contributing or advancing in any way. Iran would be even a bigger tragedy.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39942 posts
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:27 pm to
Given how much attention sanctions relief gets from the Iranians in negotiations, there is a possible avenue to isolate Iran from Russia in order to incentivize them to leave one another, and then you could conceivably work on regime change in a long-term sense. But that requires not believing Netanyahu, who has insisted that Iran is 2 months from the bomb since 1995.
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
175512 posts
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:27 pm to
quote:

Last is the oilfields. I doubt we get there.

If we get there it won't be for any good reason.

And I also doubt it comes to that.
Posted by Skee
Fayetteville
Member since Dec 2025
36 posts
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:28 pm to
quote:

But if missiles rain down on ME capitals and Saudi oil infrastructure in response where do we go from there?


To hell
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
175512 posts
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:29 pm to
quote:

But that requires not believing Netanyahu

I'm hoping Trump has learned his lesson not to trust him without significant other intelligence corroborating anything he says.
Posted by northshorebamaman
Mackinac Island
Member since Jul 2009
38504 posts
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:30 pm to
quote:

His ego is holding his common sense back.
Posted by Captain Rumbeard
Member since Jan 2014
7370 posts
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:33 pm to
You have to admit, Trump has done everything possible to avoid what's about to happen. Considering you accept this is about the nuke of course which I do. He's trying pretty damn hard not to put boots on sand. I appreciate that, even if they don't. The man is now holding off the Hawks in his own circle. That's leadership. That's Kennedy in the Cuban Crisis stuff.

They had the chance to avoid this, over, and over, and over, and over.
Posted by davyjones
NELA
Member since Feb 2019
37327 posts
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:35 pm to
And so y’all seriously think there wasn’t any American intelligence input on the subject? That’s pretty much impossible for me to buy. For starters, we’d have heard leaks from within currently, as well as some of those formers. That would seem to be a rather huge blowup, zero corroboration and moreover independent intelligence.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39942 posts
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:35 pm to
It was a mistake on his part and for what its worth, some of his instincts with regards to the Middle East have been spot on. I think his willingness to dangle money and investments to the Gulf that he did from his first term should have continued into his second by even including the Iranians. It's clear that they care about sanctions relief far more than they care about religion or ideology, as their justifications when faced with the bombing campaign are all about that, in opposition to the justifications they used when they were in Syria, where they would invoke the protection of Muslim minorities pretty often. They are just the Shia version of the KSA.
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
175512 posts
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:35 pm to
I think the conflict is foolish but Trump has certainly shown restraint instead of just going the scorched earth approach which wouldn't really yield any results anyway
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
175512 posts
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:38 pm to
quote:

It was a mistake on his part and for what its worth, some of his instincts with regards to the Middle East have been spot on. I think his willingness to dangle money and investments to the Gulf that he did from his first term should have continued into his second by even including the Iranians.

Correct. That would have been the most likely path to stability in the region.

Even the crazy Iranians are willing to cooperate and be decent neighbors if you can make it a mutually beneficial partnership.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39942 posts
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:38 pm to
quote:

And so y’all seriously think there wasn’t any American intelligence input on the subject?


With respect to Iran's actual progress towards the bomb? Well, I don't think it matters, because one, regardless, Netanyahu will always say that Iran is close to the bomb. In the 1990's, it was less than 5. In the early 2000's, it was less than 2. In 2012, I believe he said they were months away. It's in what he thinks is Israel's security interest to repeat that.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
41710 posts
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:39 pm to
quote:

How about, I just don't care about the Straight of Hormuz. We have a ton of oil here. Sounds like a much bigger problem for Europe and the Arabs. Let them deal with it.


We aren’t sending our best and brightest, folks.
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