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re: It's all about the Strait of Hormuz and Iran selling oil
Posted on 7/31/26 at 7:01 am to Diego Ricardo
Posted on 7/31/26 at 7:01 am to Diego Ricardo
quote:
However it has not happened either because they cannot (lack capabilities) or will not (understand it is a ruinous strategic blunder).
I do not know how that changes any if they had a nuclear warhead
I vacillate between your views expressed here and Trump’s view that Iranian hegemony over the Middle East - established with a nuclear weapon - would be extremely impactful to the world economy.
Iran has a mission. It is to establish a worldwide caliphate. It is easiest to kill these ideologies in their crib than to wait. However, most will die of self-inflicted wounds if you wait. We have waited 47 years. This is a tough call, in my opinion.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 7:14 am to Penrod
quote:
I vacillate between your views expressed here and Trump’s view that Iranian hegemony over the Middle East - established with a nuclear weapon - would be extremely impactful to the world economy.
Right but I think we're seeing that Iran can accomplish most of their economic warfare with drones now. The nuke is a scary proposition for the Saudis and Israelis.
I don't care what the spin says - because the US making secret deals with the Saudis is a well established historical trend - I think we're in the process of facilitating the Saudi's access to nuclear material and will backdoor the science and engineering needs to make some of that material weapons-grade and affixed to a Saudi-made delivery system so the US can play the fool to the exercise. Why would a country sitting on enough oil to power the world need nuclear power facilities. Let's get real.
I think this is setting the stage for the Saudis to apply the Iranian kill shot(s) in the future (again not on Trump presidency timelines), so Israel can maintain their tenuous relationship with other Muslim regional powers.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 9:21 am to Diego Ricardo
quote:
Iran can accomplish most of their economic warfare with drones now.
I don’t think that’s even close to true. They can accomplish some of it for a short while, but eventually we would use ground troops and force regime change - UNLESS they had nuclear weapons.
quote:
we're in the process of facilitating the Saudi's access to nuclear material and will backdoor the science and engineering needs to make some of that material weapons-grade and affixed to a Saudi-made delivery system so the US can play the fool to the exercise
I agree with this, and I think it’s partly because the Saudis are bribing the living shite out of the Trumps.
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 9:23 am
Posted on 7/31/26 at 9:39 am to PeteRose
quote:
This would be bad for Israel also. Iran is 80x bigger than Israel’s with 90+ million people scattered. If Israel nukes Iran, Iran would retaliate with their larger ballistic missles(over 1000 kg)which they in the thousands. The amount of dead civilians resulting would be depressing and scary just to think about it.
So the theory you're going with is that the Iranians have been getting pounded to sand this whole time and NOT using what they've got while they still have it?
That's delusion.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 10:03 am to crazy4lsu
Iran wants that money to rearm.
The right move was leaving them in a box, but that box has been blown up so here we are with an escaped renegade state holding the global oil supply chain hostage because a gambler on a hot streak thought he couldn’t lose and ignored the potential consequences of what would happen if he did because the Israelis and the former senator from SC convinced him it would work.
The right move was leaving them in a box, but that box has been blown up so here we are with an escaped renegade state holding the global oil supply chain hostage because a gambler on a hot streak thought he couldn’t lose and ignored the potential consequences of what would happen if he did because the Israelis and the former senator from SC convinced him it would work.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 11:02 am to Captain Rumbeard
quote:
So the theory you're going with is that the Iranians have been getting pounded to sand this whole time and NOT using what they've got while they still have it?
Iran is taking some hits but US bases in Persian Gulf are also getting lit up during this escalation ladder. I think you should stop underestimating them.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 11:05 am to PeteRose
I think you should take your meds.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 4:32 pm to tide06
quote:
Iran wants that money to rearm.
If you set it up as mutually beneficial investments with the Gulf Arabs and the Iranians working together, it could have worked. Since 2017, I believe there have been several rapprochement attempts between the Saudi's and Iranians, which mimicked earlier rapprochement efforts in the 90's and 2000's. The KSA will promise funding for some infrastructure effort in a third nation, tensions rise between the USA and the Iranians, and then after those subside, they do this again.
Iran will always spend a significant amount of money to rearm, but regional infrastructure where both parties share in the returns is the only real choice both parties have. Part of why Iran spends what it does on regional proxies is that, given its population and economy as well as its ideology, is that there will be an extremist segment that will arise regardless. Thus, part of its proxy efforts are to have places where eager men can go fight if they want. The same is true of the KSA, which is in many ways is just the Sunni Iran, a theocratic state (though that supposedly has been limited in its influence) where extremist tendencies will arise by virtue of the state's ideology with respect to religion. The KSA, even though they are much wealthier than Iran, exports a lot of young men to various foreign theaters and has done for as long as the Iranians have been in power. Both countries can unwind that, as those trends are post-1979, but it will take a generation. And it requires some kind of avenue which obviates the competition. Previous deals that Trump made in the ME followed that trend, of the promise of windfall returns if the parties worked together. And inviting the Iranians in has to be the best way of tying any potential monies to any deal.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 4:39 pm to Penrod
quote:
They can’t deal with it. And the reason we are dealing with it is because our leaders know what you don’t, that oil shortages would hit the American consumer just as they would hit the rest of the world.
Just to be clear you believe all of these things:
A) We should go to war if it helps the American consumer
B) The war has helped the American consumer.
C) Printing more money to do this doesn't hurt the American consumer.
???
Posted on 7/31/26 at 8:01 pm to tigrewoulds21
quote:
Just to be clear you believe all of these things: A) We should go to war if it helps the American consumer B) The war has helped the American consumer. C) Printing more money to do this doesn't hurt the American consumer.
I believe A) sometimes; B) remains to be seen; and C) sometimes.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 8:03 pm to udtiger
I’m sure that will solve everything.
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