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re: It's all about the Strait of Hormuz and Iran selling oil
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:44 pm to davyjones
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:44 pm to davyjones
quote:
“MAGA” = a handful of posters on an anonymous internet message board.
Fair enough. I'm being hyperbolic. Consider this one of those "if the shoe fits" situations.
Obviously not all of MAGA is this crazy. Over the last few weeks I've seen numerous posters here talk about nuking the Iranians and then there are threads like these. It is more commonplace than we would like to admit.
1
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:45 pm to Powerman
I’d guess it wouldn’t be as simple a scenario as some amongst us would question, for whatever reason, and look similar to how the intelligence community has approached it several times in our country’s history.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:46 pm to Powerman
quote:
Fair enough. I'm being hyperbolic. Consider this one of those "if the shoe fits" situations.
Obviously not all of MAGA is this crazy. Over the last few weeks I've seen numerous posters here talk about nuking the Iranians and then there are threads like these. It is more commonplace than we would like to admit.
Fair enough, back at you.
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 10:48 pm
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:47 pm to davyjones
quote:
I’d guess it wouldn’t be as simple a scenario as some amongst us would question, for whatever reason, and look similar to how the intelligence community has approached it several times in our country’s history.
Can you elucidate on this a little bit?
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:48 pm to tigrewoulds21
quote:
How about, I just don't care about the Straight of Hormuz. We have a ton of oil here. Sounds like a much bigger problem for Europe and the Arabs. Let them deal with it.
"You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality"
- Ayn Rand
It seems lost on so many people that oil prices are based on the worldwide market. A disruption in supply in the Straight of Hormuz will directly impact energy prices in America because of that fact, even if we import zero oil from the Straight.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:50 pm to crazy4lsu
Are you not aware of our arming “guerrillas” against their nation’s government in more than one instance, we’ll say since WWII?
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:50 pm to tigrewoulds21
quote:
How about, I just don't care about the Straight of Hormuz. We have a ton of oil here.
And yet our prices increase anyway. Funny how commodities work isn't it?
quote:
Sounds like a much bigger problem for Europe and the Arabs. Let them deal with it.
It's also a problem of our creation. We're not going to make many friends in the world by breaking shite and leaving it for others to fix.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:50 pm to tigrewoulds21
quote:
How about, I just don't care about the Straight of Hormuz. We have a ton of oil here. Sounds like a much bigger problem for Europe and the Arabs. Let them deal with it.
Their lack of oil causes our oil to cost more
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:51 pm to Rekrul
If DJT doesn’t start targeting the individual leaders and actually killing as many as possible he will lose. The JEWS are more than willing to help but it’s up to him to ask. The leaders don’t give two shites about the people or even the rank and file soldiers. Rockets and drones can easily and quickly be built back up. They know with the help of the MSM and Dems that the GOP will lose control of Congress if oil prices remain high. If that happens and the Dems win they will call off all the dogs and let the IRGC build EVERYTHING back up. They are playing the long game. Cutting off the head is the only way to victory, THE ONLY WAY!
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:51 pm to davyjones
quote:
Are you not aware of our arming “guerrillas” against their nation’s government in more than one instance, we’ll say since WWII?
Yes I am aware, but for lots of reasons, I don't think this will work in the Iranian case.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:52 pm to Basshole7
quote:
If DJT doesn’t start targeting the individual leaders and actually killing as many as possible he will lose.
We have already done that. Obviously they don't have an infinite supply of leaders but it's not as simple as cutting the head off of a snake.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:55 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
I don't think this will work in the Iranian case.
We probably agree on that conclusion there, but likely get there for different reasons. I think there was a time when it could have been viable.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:55 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Yes I am aware, but for lots of reasons, I don't think this will work in the Iranian case.
And let's play devil's advocate and say that it did...it would be completely naive to think that a pro Western government would take root if they overthrew the regime.
What would be much more likely is something more akin to a civil war or sectarian violence springing up from all corners of the nation. A Balkanized Iran won't offer the region more stability.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:56 pm to Powerman
We quit targeting them after the first strkes. KILL THEM ALL. The Jews know where they all are. The Mullahs are a dime a dozen. Kill the IRGC leaders.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:57 pm to Basshole7
quote:
KILL THEM ALL. The Jews know where they all are.
Then let the Israelis do it
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:00 pm to Powerman
Trump is holding them back. He still thinks he can cut a deal with them but I believe he is totally off base this time. His ego is holding his common sense back.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:03 pm to Basshole7
quote:
Trump is holding them back.
I'm not convinced they listen to Trump
I think (and their own leaders have said things hinting as much) that the Israelis are more than happy to let us do the heavy lifting because if they're doing it then they're the one on the receiving end of the Iranian missiles. If it's the United States attacking then they retaliate by targeting our bases in the region and our partners in the region. If the Israelis attack them directly more of that firepower goes directly at the Israelis.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:14 pm to davyjones
quote:
We probably agree on that conclusion there, but likely get there for different reasons. I think there was a time when it could have been viable.
Possibly, but there are several reasons to think that the 'opposition' we have present in Iran doesn't automatically mean that you have fighting forces available. Firstly, Iran's ruling class is majoritarian in both ethnicity and religion, and that means that the discontent needed to change the ruling class has to come from that group itself. So arming Kurds, for example, is the quickest way to alienate both the majoritarian element as well as the other regional elements. The Iranian state as it stands subsumes some regional rivalries, such as between those between the Azerbaijani groups and Kurdish groups, and on and on. Secondly, given what we saw from Khamenei's funeral, I think support for the regime from the demographics that matter most is still pretty strong, or at least stronger than the recent protests indicate. The estimates range from 12 million to 40 million, and that is just a larger proportion of the population than the general popularity figures touted in the West might indicate. Lastly, there isn't an established opposition group in Iran itself which could potentially unite the country against the regime except for possibly Pahlavi, and I am skeptical he can generate supporters who are actually willing to be armed.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:15 pm to Powerman
quote:
And let's play devil's advocate and say that it did...it would be completely naive to think that a pro Western government would take root if they overthrew the regime.
It's also naive to think the regime isn't more robust and resilient than they actually are.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:15 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
Their lack of oil causes our oil to cost more
War in Iran also causes our oil to cost more.
It also costs American lives. It causes more hate and animosity towards us. It also costs us money.
Which would be more useful to Americans.
A) spend $100B a year on war in Iran
B) subsidize $20 a barrel of oil that is extracted in the US?
Both cost the same amount.
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