re: I Wonder why Crime is down in DC & Memphis? What could it be?

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Wouldn't this be a win for...Biden?

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Another key component of this proactive approach was implementing in April 2022, Project Safe Neighborhood - a daily review by the Office and our law enforcement partners of every firearms arrest in the District to determine, using objective criteria about the person arrested and the firearm recovered, whether the case should be charged in U.S. District Court or D.C. Superior Court. Since April 2022, the Office has accepted for prosecution in U.S. District Court more than 150 gun offenders under this initiative.

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TDSFP wants to give Biden the credit soooooooo bad!

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we can go with your confident answer.

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I can speak to the Memphis situation. See, what happened was people started talking to the citizens of Memphis and telling them they were going down a wrong path and making bad life decisions. They realized the error of their ways and started acting right. That's exactly what transpired.

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Americans tend to think that crime is rising, but the evidence we have right now points to sizable declines this year (even if there are always outliers). The quarterly data in particular suggests 2023 featured one of the lowest rates of violent crime in the United States in more than 50 years.

Murder is down 12.7 percent in our YTD murder dashboard as of this writing (December 7th) with a decline in 73 percent of the more than 175 cities with available data. The sample suggests either the largest or one of the largest national declines in murder on record occurred this year (both in terms of percent and absolute decline).

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Murder is down 13.4 percent in cities under 100,000 with data in the sample and it’s down 12.6 percent in cities with 250,000 or more.

Murder was almost certainly still higher in 2023 than in 2019 even with a record double-digit decline nationally this year, but not by much. Most of the surge in murder that occurred in 2020 and 2021 has abated across the country.

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The quarterly data shows violent crime down in big cities, small cities, suburban counties, and rural counties, pretty much across the board. The property crime trend is similar though surging auto theft in bigger cities is tamping down the overall decline.

The decline in crime shown in the quarterly data — if realized — would be historically large. To put some of this in perspective, a 4 percent decline in the nation’s violent crime rate relative to 2022’s reported rate would lead to the lowest violent crime rate nationally since 1969.

An 8 percent decline in the nation’s violent crime rate — as is suggested is possible by the quarterly data — would look something like this:

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TRUMP sent the National Guard into DC last August.

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The city issued preliminary data showing Detroit ended the year with 165 criminal homicides, down 19% from 2024 and 35% from 2023. Compared to 2024, nonfatal shootings fell 26% to 447, while carjackings dropped 46% to 77, which the city said is an 84% reduction since 2015.

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For the second year in a row, Gov. Gavin Newsom is celebrating California’s declining homicide rate while using it as a cudgel against his political foes.

“Your state’s homicide rate is 117% higher than California’s,” he told a Missouri congressman who needled Newsom on social media last summer.

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders caught his attention, too. “Your homicide rate is literally DOUBLE California’s,” he wrote on social media addressing her.

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“California cities are seeing record-low homicide rates,” Newsom said in his state of the state speech earlier this month. “Oakland, the lowest since 1967; LA, the lowest since 1966; and San Francisco, the lowest since 1954.”

After a spike during the early days of the pandemic, homicides are in fact down nationwide.

The reason why is far less clear. To put it in the language of crime researchers, the answer is “multifactorial.”

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The fact that DC implemented all of these only to do the same as everywhere else doesn't indicate these idiosyncratic policies did much. This is similar to the myth about Rudy and NYC, who implemented his policies at the right time when crime was already going down (and going down everywhere).

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The same as almost everywhere else following the post-Covid spike.

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