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re: death rates up 40 percent over pre-pandemic levels
Posted on 1/7/22 at 1:46 pm to Jbird
Posted on 1/7/22 at 1:46 pm to Jbird
quote:
As the pandemic enters its second year running, the number of deaths the virus has caused is likely much greater than official numbers indicate, setting a historic record.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) explains that excess deaths are associated with COVID-19 directly or indirectly, typically defined as the difference between the observed number of deaths in specific time periods and the expected number of deaths in the same time periods.
Currently, since Feb. 1, 2020, the CDC estimates there have been 942,431 excess deaths in the U.S.
That's a staggering amount, as J Scott Davidson, CEO of insurance company OneAmerica, explained during a healthcare conference organized by the Indiana Chamber of Commerce this week. Davidson said that his company is seeing the highest death rates now than he’s ever seen before since he started in the insurance business.
Even more alarming is where those death rates are hitting, with Davidson saying it’s primarily among working aged people, between the ages of 18 and 64.
Notably, Davidson said that even if COVID-19 is not listed on a person’s death certificate, that doesn’t mean the virus didn’t play a role. For example, Davidson said a person can contract COVID-19 and recover, but the virus could have triggered a separate illness that eventually leads to death.
“It may not all be Covid on their death certificates, but deaths are up in just huge, huge numbers,” Davidson said.
See, I see it as the opposite. I think that more deaths are attributed to the virus than are accurate. I think that those excess deaths are likely a combination of increased heart problems due to the covid vaccine, increased heart problems due to inactivity, increased diabetes due to inactivity, lives lost due to forgoing elective medical procedures and postponing preventative medicine, increased suicide rate due to isolation, increased drug use due to isolation, and possible immune system degradation caused by covid or the covid vaccine which results in other ailments killing the individual. These issues feed off of one another, so determining the one smoking gun isn't really possible.
However, until the end, I will be convinced that the side-effects of attempting to flatten the curve and social distance in order to combat Covid have resulted and will result in FAR more deaths and negative health outcomes than the virus itself.
This post was edited on 1/7/22 at 1:54 pm
1
Posted on 1/7/22 at 1:52 pm to Jbird
I suspect that there are a lot of reasons and it would be interesting to see it broken down into categories (although the CDC did a lot to muck up the data).
I wonder how much had to do with covid, fallout from lockdowns, neglected normal medical practices, cabin fever, drugs, depression and the usual spikes in deaths due to economic desperation and the like.
I wonder how much had to do with covid, fallout from lockdowns, neglected normal medical practices, cabin fever, drugs, depression and the usual spikes in deaths due to economic desperation and the like.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 2:01 pm to Auburn1968
There's already a burgeoning cottage industry of epidemiology & health services & social science research to sort all of that out. I think the international comparisons will be telling since there will be dozens of natural experiments going in OECD countries.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 2:02 pm to kingbob
quote:
However, until the end, I will be convinced that the side-effects of attempting to flatten the curve and social distance in order to combat Covid have resulted and will result in FAR more deaths and negative health outcomes than the virus itself.
The Amish at first followed the recommendations, but quickly decided to just go about their lives as usual. All of the politicians playing doctor didn't help anything and in some cases like NY actually killed thousands.
quote:
How Amish Communities Became The First To Achieve Covid "Herd Immunity" Without Higher Death Rate, Shutdown, Masks, Or Vaccines
LINK
Posted on 1/7/22 at 2:02 pm to Jbird
I already showed once before that the "increase in deaths" numbers are complete fabrications because if you had an actual increase in deaths, you'd have a corresponding increase in the funeral business. Unfortunately for that industry, the revenue numbers for the two major companies that control 90% of the coffin and funeral business in the US (and are publicly traded so the numbers are there to see) were flat. At 940k excess deaths, that would have netted those companies somewhere around $2.8 billion in new funeral revenue, but their annual revenues in 2020, combined, only increased about $10-$20 million.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 2:17 pm to HubbaBubba
That assumes funeral practices stay steady during the pandemic. Lots of places limiting sizes and families likely opting for more modest funerals given people avoiding gatherings.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 2:48 pm to the808bass
quote:
Really good summary.
I'd add to it -
We had relatively mild flu/cold season the 2 previous years. Remember going into 2020 the CDC was jumping up and down about a savage flu season because a) indications of a harsh flu, but also b) a lot of dry tinder that had not been burned the previous couple of years.
Also, demographics worked to pump up excess deaths. If I'm not mistaken, the CDC's algorithm for predicting deaths does not treat demographic changes in an accurate way, if at all. I don't know how they crunch the numbers myself, but I've read several reviews by people that have dug into it, and it's pretty consistent - the threshold for excess death is pretty lame, and it's biased towards too many excess deaths reported, not too little (which probably makes sense for a gov't health agency).
Posted on 1/7/22 at 2:51 pm to Jbird
quote:
That's a staggering amount, as J Scott Davidson, CEO of insurance company OneAmerica, explained during a healthcare conference organized by the Indiana Chamber of Commerce this week. Davidson said that his company is seeing the highest death rates now than he’s ever seen before since he started in the insurance business.
Here's where some of the pressure for a vaccine mandate is coming....INSURANCE COMPANIES! If their actuarial studies show a reduced exposure to insurance payouts to those who are vaccinated then they will want everyone vaccinated.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 3:02 pm to TigerDoc
quote:People still going to need caskets and plots to put them in. Take 900k+ number of ADDITIONAL new deaths. What's the average price of a casket? Here, I'll help:
That assumes funeral practices stay steady during the pandemic. Lots of places limiting sizes and families likely opting for more modest funerals given people avoiding gatherings.
quote:Federal Trade CommissionSo let's say you have 900k new deaths. half get cremated and half get caskets and buried. At just the average cost of $2000 for a casket, that's minimally $900 million in new revenue2. Even when you get cremated, law requires the body has to be in a combustible container. Most often, it's a coffin designed to burn up, with no metal parts. Those are around $500-$1500 each. Assuming at least 50% of cremations go this route instead of the $150 cardboard box route, at an average price of $1000 that's still another $225 million in new revenues.
A casket often is the single most expensive item you'll buy if you plan a "traditional" full-service funeral. Caskets vary widely in style and price and are sold primarily for their visual appeal. Typically, they're constructed of metal, wood, fiberboard, fiberglass or plastic. Although an average casket costs slightly more than $2,000, some mahogany, bronze or copper caskets sell for as much as $10,000.
So, put together, minimally, the funeral industry should have grown for those two companies, at a 90% market share, of $1.01 billion in new revenue, not $10-$20 million.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 3:40 pm to Jbird
quote:
As the pandemic enters its second year running, the number of deaths the virus has caused is likely much greater than official numbers indicate, setting a historic record.
Wow so now they are turning vaccine deaths and suicides into covid deaths.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 3:46 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
I think the international comparisons will be telling since there will be dozens of natural experiments going in OECD countries.
And a lot of those countries didn’t need to pump the virus to win an election.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 3:48 pm to HubbaBubba
Plus. There was free Covid money for funerals from FEMA. This is an odd data point that will be interesting to sort out.
Posted on 1/7/22 at 4:29 pm to Jbird
quote:
J Scott Davidson, CEO of insurance company
Posted on 1/7/22 at 6:01 pm to Jbird
quote:
death rates up 40 percent over pre-pandemic levels
If this is so, then the blood of these people is on Biden's hands, this is HIS pandemic. Did I do that right?
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