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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Posted on 3/20/20 at 5:02 pm to
Posted by McLemore
Member since Dec 2003
35485 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 5:02 pm to
quote:

OK so say a test for antibodies comes out and it shows the person had it .. or a positive test person is asymptomatic for 14 days ... when can they ever go back to say a healthcare type field of work?


I haven't seen a consistent answer to this. It's definitely a challenge with respect to the "setting people free" aspect. The incubation and shedding/lingering contagion issues all make the timeline hard to peg accurately. This is actually next in my rabbit hole search of CV19 issues. Hopefully someone else can shed, as it were, more light.

But from an "increase the denominator" standpoint for death and morbidity rates, it will be immediately useful.
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 5:39 pm to
Growth rate could exceed but it’s probably slowed from yesterday. Yesterday’s spiked; I doubt we will see as much of an increase in %
Posted by GatorReb
Dallas GA
Member since Feb 2009
9426 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 6:06 pm to
I think the worldochart number now has gone up to +5300 today new cases.
Posted by Green Chili Tiger
Lurking the Tin Foil Hat Board
Member since Jul 2009
50898 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 6:12 pm to
quote:

I think the worldochart number now has gone up to +5300 today new cases.


+5406
Posted by TigerFanatic99
South Bend, Indiana
Member since Jan 2007
36378 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:21 pm to
I hate those charts that have an inconsistent scale. It skews the visualization of the data
Posted by NorCali
Member since Feb 2015
1794 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:46 pm to
Very nice graphs, thank you for taking the time to do this.
Now that there is 15 days as data and maybe a hint of the total CV death rate starting to flatten compared to the curve of the total CV cases, any chance you could generate a graph of the US Total CV Deaths in log scale, like you have the cases? It might be interesting.
Posted by TigerCoon
Member since Nov 2005
22476 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:53 pm to
flattening the curve, straightening the hill.
One day the mountain life might get us,
but kung flu never will.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8285 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:18 pm to




NOTE: Updated as of 8:15 PM CST, These are not final numbers for the day, they will go up throughout the day.

NOTE: Until the end of the day, the growth rate numbers will not be correct.

Note: This may be my last update of the day, I'm really tired and need to crash. I will update the final numbers for today.
Posted by MorgusTheMagnificent
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2014
1965 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:27 pm to
Not promising
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8285 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:28 pm to
NorCali, I just caught up on the thread and saw this. Yes, I will add a logarithmic chart for total cv deaths...good idea! It will not be tonight, this week has been brutal, I am tired and going to crash.
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
31721 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:39 pm to
quote:

Growth rate could exceed but it’s probably slowed from yesterday. Yesterday’s spiked; I doubt we will see as much of an increase in %

Will see a spike in numbers as more are tested. We got test 4 weeks ago but had strict guidelines on who to test. Basically the patient had to have all the symptoms, high risk for exposure and sicker than shite. Literally, hospitalization sick. Now that the local hospital has test and making bank off of it, anyone can be tested after we flu, strep, RSV etc. So, I'm having to gown up, put my protected eyewear on, gloves etc...basically full HAZMAT and go see them in their cars to eliminate any chance of it entering our clinic (even though we've been seeing and treating this shite for months under "Viral Syndrome".) So, you'll see a spike, but you can bet your arse it would've been higher in November, December, and January. I think they crop dusted our asses in the fall (China).

Hell, I had all the classical symptoms in January after returning from Colorado. Seemed to be sensitive to Miller Lite and Jameson's.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129615 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:40 pm to
You’re doing the Lord’s work. Thanks for all the charts.
Posted by TideCPA
Member since Jan 2012
14300 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:55 pm to
Thank you for the updates from a data person.

I think we need to focus on deaths and serious cases at the moment to really get a feel for what’s going on, even though those are lagging indicators. It’s impossible to read anything into the increase in number of cases without knowing what portion of that is due to new infections vs. what is simply due to increased testing as it continues to ramp up.
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
31721 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:58 pm to
quote:

what is simply due to increased testing as it continues to ramp up.

90% +. Number pulled from my arse, but this shite is fading quick from what we were seeing months ago but had no testing.
Posted by TideCPA
Member since Jan 2012
14300 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:59 pm to
Also, if you break down deaths by country on a per capita basis, the US is doing much better than most of our first world counterparts in the northern hemisphere.
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:02 pm to
quote:

you can bet your arse it would've been higher in November, December, and January
and this is the point i have been making for several days. it's a bit misleading to take these numbers at face value. as a case is confirmed by testing, that person had already been sick for days. technically, that person could go on previous days' numbers. that pushes previous days up and the current day down.

of course, it all comes out in the wash but, the higher numbers are not unexpected at all. the question at this point is how long the rise in numbers will continue. hopefully, not long. maybe another week or 2 given that multiple asian countries seem to be leveling off a bit.

i know i sound like a broken record but, we just passed a quarter of a million cases worldwide after 3, possibly 4 months. even if china is grossly misreporting their numbers, this is a very mild outbreak, historically speaking. just trying to keep things in perspective
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8285 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:06 pm to
CPA, in my head I am visualizing the two data sets, cases & deaths, overlayed in the same bar chart, that should show the lag between positive and death. I will prob add that this weekend.
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
111555 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:06 pm to
quote:


i know i sound like a broken record but, we just passed a quarter of a million cases worldwide after 3, possibly 4 months. even if china is grossly misreporting their numbers, this is a very mild outbreak, historically speaking. just trying to keep things in perspective


Why isn’t this drum being beat?
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:13 pm to
quote:

Why isn’t this drum being beat?
that's part of the overall picture i have been puzzled by. now, multiple gov's saying they will ramp up and deploy national guard to disperse gatherings. first responder/critical services passes being distributed. multiple legislators dumping millions in stocks right before u.s. cases. it's hard to believe there aren't dotted lines between these things. i'm looking at the numbers and i'm not seeing the same picture that officials are portraying.
Posted by RBTiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2011
9253 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:20 pm to
I thought the 15 day social distancing started on Monday....WHY is it Friday and it's still 15 days??
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