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Started By
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65 months of CPI over 2%
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:04 am
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:04 am
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Only 3.4%? We should probably start another war or print 40% of all money supply ever again.
I dont see how the FED doesn't bump rates up
10
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:04 am to stout
FYI, the data is lagging from what I see daily in my business, but trust me when I say housing foreclosures are popping off at an accelerating rate.
This is from Q2, and it was a pretty average start of the year, but something shifted in June, and we are securing more vacant houses for lenders than we have in years. Also, fewer homes are selling at sheriff's sale, and we are getting a ton of good properties post-sale to convey to HUD.
I have been doing this since 2009 and went through the 2010 peak of activity, and honestly, the increase in activity this Summer, if it holds, has me thinking we will revert back to levels not seen since the mid 2010s
This is from Q2, and it was a pretty average start of the year, but something shifted in June, and we are securing more vacant houses for lenders than we have in years. Also, fewer homes are selling at sheriff's sale, and we are getting a ton of good properties post-sale to convey to HUD.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. I have been doing this since 2009 and went through the 2010 peak of activity, and honestly, the increase in activity this Summer, if it holds, has me thinking we will revert back to levels not seen since the mid 2010s
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:09 am to stout
Prices are definitely coming down in the housing market. We’ve seen inventory sitting much longer, with folks cutting $100,000 to $125,000 off their asking prices. Now, they may have started out overpriced, but it’s definitely not a seller’s market.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:11 am to Aguga
That will happen when you remove millions of illegal immigrants.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:13 am to stout
quote:
FYI, the data is lagging from what I see daily in my business, but trust me when I say housing foreclosures are popping off at an accelerating rate.
Somebody mentioned on the MSB that United Wholesale Mortgage is in big trouble, which I didn't realize as they are a behemoth around here.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:15 am to stout
I'm kind of shocked 2020/2021 didn't have more foreclosures. Now there are almost double in 2026 than during Covid.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:22 am to idlewatcher
quote:
I'm kind of shocked 2020/2021 didn't have more foreclosures.
Wut? They had a moratorium on any Gov backed mortgage. No foreclosures
What you see are foreclosures that were already in the pipeline and/or conventional mortgages.
ETA: Also, until Covid, you can see that foreclosures were already at all-time lows and had consistently decreased YoY
This post was edited on 8/12/26 at 10:24 am
Posted on 8/12/26 at 10:46 am to stout
Inflation cooled yet again
Lets 3mnths annualized we are under 2% despite all the BS
But yeah lets raise rates that will stop oild prices
Lets 3mnths annualized we are under 2% despite all the BS
But yeah lets raise rates that will stop oild prices
Posted on 8/12/26 at 12:34 pm to stout
Credit card and vehicle loan delinquencies are where I look.
Vehicle loans 90 days or more delinquent:
Late 2015 / early 2016: ~3.3–3.5%
2016: ~3.5–3.8% (+0.2 to +0.4)
2017: ~3.8–4.1% (+0.3)
2018: ~4.2–4.5% (+0.4)
2019: ~4.6–4.9% (+0.4 to +0.5)
2020: ~4.8–5.1% (mixed, near-flat to mild decline later in year amid pandemic supports)
2021: ~4.0–4.8% (notable decline, often –0.3 to –0.8)
2022: ~3.7–4.0% (further decline or stabilization, often negative YoY)
2023: ~3.8–4.2% (turning up, ~0 to +0.4)
2024: ~4.4–4.8% (+0.5 to +0.7)
2025: ~5.0–5.2% (+0.4 to +0.6)
Q1 2026: 5.6% (+0.6 from Q1 2025)
Fun fact: During the GFC the rate topped out at 5.3% (Q4 2010).
Fun fact #2: 84-month auto loans now make up ~22% of all auto loans.
Credit cards 90 days or more delinquent:
2015/early 2016: ~7.6–8.4%
2016–2017: ~7.5% (mild declines of roughly –0.1 to –0.8)
2018: ~8.0% (+0.6)
2019: ~8.3% (+0.3)
2020: ~9.1% (+0.8)
2021: ~10.0% (+0.9)
2022: ~8.4% (–1.6)
2023: ~8.2% (–0.2)
2024: ~10.7% (+2.5)
2025: ~12.3% (+1.6)
Q1 2026: 13.12% (+0.8 from Q1 2025)
Fun fact #3: During the GFC, this topped out at 11% (Q4 2009)
The consumer debt bubble:
Vehicle loans 90 days or more delinquent:
Late 2015 / early 2016: ~3.3–3.5%
2016: ~3.5–3.8% (+0.2 to +0.4)
2017: ~3.8–4.1% (+0.3)
2018: ~4.2–4.5% (+0.4)
2019: ~4.6–4.9% (+0.4 to +0.5)
2020: ~4.8–5.1% (mixed, near-flat to mild decline later in year amid pandemic supports)
2021: ~4.0–4.8% (notable decline, often –0.3 to –0.8)
2022: ~3.7–4.0% (further decline or stabilization, often negative YoY)
2023: ~3.8–4.2% (turning up, ~0 to +0.4)
2024: ~4.4–4.8% (+0.5 to +0.7)
2025: ~5.0–5.2% (+0.4 to +0.6)
Q1 2026: 5.6% (+0.6 from Q1 2025)
Fun fact: During the GFC the rate topped out at 5.3% (Q4 2010).
Fun fact #2: 84-month auto loans now make up ~22% of all auto loans.
Credit cards 90 days or more delinquent:
2015/early 2016: ~7.6–8.4%
2016–2017: ~7.5% (mild declines of roughly –0.1 to –0.8)
2018: ~8.0% (+0.6)
2019: ~8.3% (+0.3)
2020: ~9.1% (+0.8)
2021: ~10.0% (+0.9)
2022: ~8.4% (–1.6)
2023: ~8.2% (–0.2)
2024: ~10.7% (+2.5)
2025: ~12.3% (+1.6)
Q1 2026: 13.12% (+0.8 from Q1 2025)
Fun fact #3: During the GFC, this topped out at 11% (Q4 2009)
The consumer debt bubble:
Posted on 8/12/26 at 1:52 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
But yeah lets raise rates
Yea they are 100% going to do that
I will pour one out for you when they do
This post was edited on 8/12/26 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 8/12/26 at 1:53 pm to stout
They need to do it also
Posted on 8/12/26 at 2:00 pm to Bard
quote:
Credit cards 90 days or more delinquent:
Has anyone else noticed that women seem to have the biggest problem with credit cards?
Posted on 8/12/26 at 2:03 pm to stout
It’s crazy it hasn’t happened yet
Posted on 8/12/26 at 2:33 pm to Riverside
quote:
That will happen when you remove millions of illegal immigrants.
It just amazes me people with look at employment data, housing market, inflation.................and totally dismiss the impact of 20 million people being dumped in the market.
How many of these foreclosures are illegal, we know they were getting fanni mae, mac loans. How many were renting homes and now the owner cant afford the nut?
About 1.3 million homes are built in the US each year, throw in 20 million people and be amazed when prices skyrocket......now surprised when they drop like a rock as these people leave.
How many of these overdue car loans and credit cards are illegals. They can just go home and take their f150 and big screen with them, they dont care.
This post was edited on 8/12/26 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 8/12/26 at 2:44 pm to idlewatcher
quote:uhhhhh thats because there was a moratorium passed against it during covid.
I'm kind of shocked 2020/2021 didn't have more foreclosures.
quote:ah makes sense now
idlewatcher
Posted on 8/12/26 at 2:53 pm to stout
quote:
Only 3.4%? We should probably start another war or print 40% of all money supply ever again.
I dont see how the FED doesn't bump rates up
Fed needs to be mothballed. I honestly believe you could get some of the great thinkers in economics/finance together in one room and they could come to a consensus on set interest rates for key loans and various government securities. All the interest rate uncertainties we hear Wall Street bitch and moan about would be gone.
This post was edited on 8/12/26 at 2:54 pm
Posted on 8/12/26 at 3:15 pm to Bass Tiger
I have to chuckle my wife calls our bank "Jekyll", which could be a reference to Jekyll Island where the meeting took place to form the strawman of the Federal Reserve......or it could be the absurd policies of the bank, I guess both fit. 
Posted on 8/12/26 at 3:22 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
How many of these foreclosures are illegal, we know they were getting fanni mae, mac loans. How many were renting homes and now the owner cant afford the nut?
About 1.3 million homes are built in the US each year, throw in 20 million people and be amazed when prices skyrocket......now surprised when they drop like a rock as these people leave.
How many of these overdue car loans and credit cards are illegals. They can just go home and take their f150 and big screen with them, they dont care.
Some of it may be illegals but we have been seeing this trend since before Trump took office and deportations started. Money is no longer cheap to borrow, making what is happening inevitable. The belt always tightens when money is not cheap.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 3:28 pm to stout
Problem is BLS does lag behind.
Beef price pressure is not good right now. We just don't slaughter cows like we used to.
Beef price pressure is not good right now. We just don't slaughter cows like we used to.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 3:29 pm to stout
Hey genius, raising rates with a mediocre economy would do wonders for growth lol it never ceases to amaze
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