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re: 538 analysis: 'Herd immunity won't save us'
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:24 pm to idlewatcher
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:24 pm to idlewatcher
quote:
Good to see Nate Fake Gold is also a scientist.....
in addition to being incorrect.....again.
Nate has actually been pretty reasonable during all of this. He's consistently criticized media for irresponsible fear mongering and not reporting on good news.
The problem is basically everyone at 538 other than Nate is a stereotypical super soft, soy boy millennial type who can't maintain any objectivity in their writing. This specific article and model were some of these other 538 writers.
1
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:26 pm to MusclesofBrussels
Nate has also been beating the drum for a while now that both NYC and NOLA likely developed some level of herd immunity in their populations, which is why their decline has been so much sharper than everywhere else.
That seems to run contradictory to this article.
That seems to run contradictory to this article.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:29 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
14,959 out of 1.8 million is a death rate of 0.008%. These are the best real world numbers we have.
I think it's 0.8% (almost 1%).
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:48 pm to Zach
quote:
Ooh, 3 women get together and decide to write an article.
During commercials while binge watching The Bachelor and The Masked Singer.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:48 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
I think it's 0.8% (almost 1%).
To keep it simplest and in perspective, 1% of 1,800,000 is 180,000 which is over 12 times the number of NYC deaths as of yesterday.
0.8% would come in at about 9.6 times the actual number of deaths.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 4:01 pm to Auburn1968
1% of 1,800,000 is 18,000 not 180,000
Posted on 5/15/20 at 4:17 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
1% of 1,800,000 is 18,000 not 180,000
You're right. Brain fart on my side.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 4:26 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:Varies by virus, but 40% probably gets us there, FWIW
So let’s go back to that 70 percent herd immunity threshold
Posted on 5/15/20 at 4:30 pm to L.A.
quote:yeah, we can't keep spending 4 or 6 trillion for every 80K or 100K deaths anyways
I gotta be honest: I'm ok with a mass kill-off if the alternative is hiding in our houses until a vaccine is developed
rip the band aid off already
95% with underlying conditions and 80% over 65
average age is 79
leas than 1% mortality rate, probably closer to half a percent
I like my chances and I crave liberty more than I fear death
Posted on 5/15/20 at 4:32 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
So let’s go back to that 70 percent herd immunity threshold. If the fatality rate is around 0.5 percent and 70 percent of Americans have to get sick before their immunity starts protecting others, that means more than 1.1 million people would die.
“ Both papers indicate, among other things, that the infection rate required to reach herd immunity is much lower than the simple first-order model indicates ”
LINK
The papers:
Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought
LINK
Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold
LINK
Posted on 5/15/20 at 4:34 pm to Auburn1968
Edited for math correction which someone already had pointed out.
This post was edited on 5/15/20 at 4:39 pm
Posted on 5/15/20 at 4:41 pm to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
tinized.
Nursing home deaths are driving the death rate. Less than one half of one percent of the US population, but are making up nearly 50% or more of all deaths.
Remove the NY and NJ nursing home deaths and the US mortality rate from Covid19 is probably well below 1%
Posted on 5/15/20 at 4:55 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
NYC has about 8.5 million people so 21% is about 1.8 million who have had the virus. 14,959 out of 1.8 million is a death rate of 0.008%. These are the best real world numbers we have.
You didn’t move the decimal two places
Posted on 5/15/20 at 4:57 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Posted on 5/15/20 at 5:09 pm to RidiculousHype
According to this guy, Hillary Clinton should be president right now.
There's more to life than being alive y'all.
I'm not giving up hugs, parties, restaurants, or handshakes. Especially based on anything that nerd who fails to see the forest for the trees may say.
I'll wear a mask to be polite for a while, but I kind of resent the intrusion because this seems to be the result of FOS freakout, and I'm not really sure it will do any good. So my fuse is probably pretty short on that one. Plus, I obsessively washed my hands 400 times a day & Cloroxed my countertops if I walked past them anyway.
I also, because I am vain and weird and love any home remedy for beauty - enjoyed a good bleach bath for exfoliation and to keep my skin looking nice - even before the Covid. You Baws who deal with rosascea, excema, or skin allergies - check it out. Trust me. I'm a skin products amateur, vain, well kept woman of a certain age professional in this department.
I'm pretty much done with this shite. I've been researchign new hairstyles on Pinterest all day and I'm going full cut and color on Tuesday. You'll recognize me because I'm going to be the lunatic strutting around the grocery store in a cocktail dress, a full hair blow out and false eyelashes at 2:30 in the afternoon on a Wednesday. Because it's my day. And thank God hair salons are back in action.
There's more to life than being alive y'all.
I'm not giving up hugs, parties, restaurants, or handshakes. Especially based on anything that nerd who fails to see the forest for the trees may say.
I'll wear a mask to be polite for a while, but I kind of resent the intrusion because this seems to be the result of FOS freakout, and I'm not really sure it will do any good. So my fuse is probably pretty short on that one. Plus, I obsessively washed my hands 400 times a day & Cloroxed my countertops if I walked past them anyway.
I also, because I am vain and weird and love any home remedy for beauty - enjoyed a good bleach bath for exfoliation and to keep my skin looking nice - even before the Covid. You Baws who deal with rosascea, excema, or skin allergies - check it out. Trust me. I'm a skin products amateur, vain, well kept woman of a certain age professional in this department.
I'm pretty much done with this shite. I've been researchign new hairstyles on Pinterest all day and I'm going full cut and color on Tuesday. You'll recognize me because I'm going to be the lunatic strutting around the grocery store in a cocktail dress, a full hair blow out and false eyelashes at 2:30 in the afternoon on a Wednesday. Because it's my day. And thank God hair salons are back in action.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 5:18 pm to ChEgrad
quote:
Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold
Yep. Also consider what happens to the IFR once all of the nursing homes have been infected, which they probably have in NYC. Nowhere to go but down.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 5:21 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
What we do know so far
Do we really? What I “suspect” is a huge helping of liberal msm bullshite associated with this whole “disease.”
Posted on 5/15/20 at 5:22 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
If 1.1 million people die, and 1.05 million of those were going to die within a year anyway due to pre-existing conditions,
That’s a lot of savings in Medicare and Social Security.
Thanks COVID
Posted on 5/15/20 at 5:23 pm to WaWaWeeWa
The article assumes that a path to herd immunity post-infection is just mass infection of everyone; however, the IFR is not the same for every age group. Nearly 70% of the US population is under the age of 60, and the estimated IFR for those under 60 is significantly less than the 0.5% figure used in their analysis.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 5:34 pm to RidiculousHype
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