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Started By
Message
538 analysis: 'Herd immunity won't save us'
Posted on 5/15/20 at 2:50 pm
Posted on 5/15/20 at 2:50 pm
quote:
What we do know so far paints a stark picture: This disease is too deadly, too contagious and too new to depend on post-infection immunity (as opposed to immunity via vaccination) as a solution. Naturally acquired herd immunity is not the answer.
quote:
So let’s go back to that 70 percent herd immunity threshold. If the fatality rate is around 0.5 percent and 70 percent of Americans have to get sick before their immunity starts protecting others, that means more than 1.1 million people would die.
LINK
That's it. Get your asses back in the house until the vaccine is ready.
31
Posted on 5/15/20 at 2:52 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
too deadly, too contagious
ha
Posted on 5/15/20 at 2:52 pm to RidiculousHype
Apparently Earth isn’t safe anymore.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 2:53 pm to RidiculousHype
Good to see Nate Fake Gold is also a scientist.....
in addition to being incorrect.....again.
in addition to being incorrect.....again.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 2:53 pm to RidiculousHype
1.1 million deaths over a 5 year period or so is negligible
Posted on 5/15/20 at 2:53 pm to RidiculousHype
I gotta be honest: I'm ok with a mass kill-off if the alternative is hiding in our houses until a vaccine is developed.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 2:53 pm to RidiculousHype
Nothing can save us but Jesus
Posted on 5/15/20 at 2:54 pm to RidiculousHype
I'ma-needa see some evidence of this .5% fatality + wildly contagious. One of those isn't right as the hospitals would be littered with the bodies of a much wider range of society.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 2:54 pm to lsupride87
What’s that one comparison to China’s population alone? Less than 1%?
If so, we’re beating the supposed 2.5% fatality rate being touted.
If so, we’re beating the supposed 2.5% fatality rate being touted.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 2:59 pm to teke184
Another thing the study ignores:
If 1.1 million people die, and 1.05 million of those were going to die within a year anyway due to pre-existing conditions, that's different than 1.1 million young/healthy people dying.
If 1.1 million people die, and 1.05 million of those were going to die within a year anyway due to pre-existing conditions, that's different than 1.1 million young/healthy people dying.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:02 pm to RidiculousHype
NYC had 14,959 deaths attributed to Covid-19 as of yesterday.
A couple of weeks ago a large random sample study was done in NYC testing for antibodies. 21% of NYC residents had the coronavirus antibody.
NYC has about 8.5 million people so 21% is about 1.8 million who have had the virus. 14,959 out of 1.8 million is a death rate of 0.008%. These are the best real world numbers we have.
A couple of weeks ago a large random sample study was done in NYC testing for antibodies. 21% of NYC residents had the coronavirus antibody.
NYC has about 8.5 million people so 21% is about 1.8 million who have had the virus. 14,959 out of 1.8 million is a death rate of 0.008%. These are the best real world numbers we have.
This post was edited on 5/15/20 at 3:04 pm
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:02 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
By Kaleigh Rogers, Julia Wolfe and Laura Bronner
Ooh, 3 women get together and decide to write an article.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:03 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
This disease is too deadly, too contagious and too new to depend on post-infection immunity (as opposed to immunity via vaccination) as a solution.
Is he or am I confused as to how immunity via vaccination works? If being exposed to and beating a virus naturally doesn't grant you immunity, how will being exposed to a virus via vaccine grant you immunity?
quote:
So let’s go back to that 70 percent herd immunity threshold. If the fatality rate is around 0.5 percent and 70 percent of Americans have to get sick before their immunity starts protecting others, that means more than 1.1 million people would die.
Assumes herd immunity threshold doesn't change, and I believe this 70% number is based off of that shitty Imperial College model that's been getting scrutinized.
Nursing home deaths are driving the death rate. Less than one half of one percent of the US population, but are making up nearly 50% or more of all deaths.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:06 pm to RidiculousHype
Then just roll up the sidewalks and call it a day, because vaccinations work the same way.
Bill Maher is right. Stop trying to hide from this thing. Fight it and accept that there will be losses.
Bill Maher is right. Stop trying to hide from this thing. Fight it and accept that there will be losses.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:06 pm to RidiculousHype
This ignores the possibility that many people were exposed to CV and never got tested due to being asymptomatic
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:10 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
So let’s go back to that 70 percent herd immunity threshold. If the fatality rate is around 0.5 percent and 70 percent of Americans have to get sick before their immunity starts protecting others, that means more than 1.1 million people would die.
If the R0 is anywhere from 70-90% then the vast majority of people have already been exposed to it since I'm pretty sure it's been here since January (my wife came down with what the doctor described as "a viral/bacterial infection, but it's not the flu" back in early January, spent a day or two with massive chills and had lost a bit of her sense of taste and smell at that time). This belief is backed up by not just anecdotal evidence but studies showing antibodies present in surprising numbers of people, even in areas with low infection rates.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:11 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
RidiculousHype
quote:
too deadly, too contagious
Fitting
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:15 pm to Zach
quote:
Ooh, 3 women get together and decide to write an article.
What's shocking is none of them have 3 names.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:16 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
538 analysis
Who needs medical science when we can manipulate numbers?*
* Royalties paid to Climate Change industry.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 3:20 pm to RidiculousHype
My doctor just told me the exact opposite of this
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