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re: 538 analysis: 'Herd immunity won't save us'
Posted on 5/15/20 at 5:35 pm to RidiculousHype
Posted on 5/15/20 at 5:35 pm to RidiculousHype
Save us from what? I am not aware of any outbreaks of any serious disease going around? Has ebola made its way to the USA? Help please.
0
Posted on 5/15/20 at 5:36 pm to RidiculousHype
If you are at high risk of death, stay the frick home.
If you aren't at high risk of death, do what the frick you want.
Staying home and closing businesses for 18+ months is not an acceptable plan of action for the entire country.
If you aren't at high risk of death, do what the frick you want.
Staying home and closing businesses for 18+ months is not an acceptable plan of action for the entire country.
This post was edited on 5/15/20 at 5:37 pm
Posted on 5/15/20 at 6:05 pm to RidiculousHype
Your numbers are bogus. A majority of the people who are dying are near death already. Just waiting for a fall or the flu or maybe a 2 or 3 week case of diarrhea. And when those easy picking are thinned out and most of the available victims are healthy, etc. then it will basically be an uncomfortable bad cold or a no symptom matter for most folks. And we will learn to deal with it like the flu We didn't lose our country nor our ability to raise our children over the flu in 2018 with 60/70K deaths WITH a vaccine. We must learn to live with it and move on with life.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 6:20 pm to jimdog
538 has jumped the shark...again
Posted on 5/15/20 at 8:37 pm to RidiculousHype
Then we all die.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 8:39 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
1.1 million people would die.
Over how long a period? What other causes of death are displaced (and to what extent)?
And ultimately, soooo? What are we supposed to do about it?
Any piece that doesn't even bother analyzing the devastation of a collapsed economy, fear-frozen citizenry and dashed fundamental rights is fire kindling.
This post was edited on 5/15/20 at 8:45 pm
Posted on 5/15/20 at 8:40 pm to RTM4
As a species we either adapt or we go extinct and there is not a thing that you or I can do about it.
It is all bullchit however and the opened states are about to blow the lid on this shelter in place bullchit.
It is all bullchit however and the opened states are about to blow the lid on this shelter in place bullchit.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 8:41 pm to RidiculousHype
Posted on 5/15/20 at 8:57 pm to FlexDawg
Good to see you didn't get the ban hammer Dawg.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 9:48 pm to RidiculousHype
Commies kill more than COVID
Posted on 5/15/20 at 10:09 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
quote:
So let’s go back to that 70 percent herd immunity threshold
Varies by virus, but 40% probably gets us there, FWIW
Whatever the percentage ends up being, it's more important to note that herd immunity isn't a binary phenomenon.
Posted on 5/16/20 at 12:21 am to FlexDawg
Thanks for that link Flex.
Excellent article.
Excellent article.
Posted on 5/16/20 at 12:50 am to RidiculousHype
quote:
What we do know so far paints a stark picture: This disease is too deadly, too contagious and too new to depend on post-infection immunity (as opposed to immunity via vaccination) as a solution. Naturally acquired herd immunity is not the answer.
This contradicts biology 101. You contract the virus, you get ill, your immune system releases white blood cells to fight the infection, it creates an antibody so that you can fight it off more efficiently later. Why is it so suddenly not the case with this particular virus? What makes it so profoundly lethal? If that was the case, I would expect a mortality rate of 98%, not a survival rate of 98%.
Posted on 5/16/20 at 12:56 am to RidiculousHype
If you move the numbers to rational numbers like
IFR of 0.3
R0 of 2.3
And leave it at 1000 days for Immunity duration.
Herd immunity reached at 84 days.
IFR of 0.3
R0 of 2.3
And leave it at 1000 days for Immunity duration.
Herd immunity reached at 84 days.
Posted on 5/16/20 at 1:08 am to RidiculousHype
quote:
If the fatality rate is around 0.5 percent
Its not... its half of that
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