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re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
Posted on 10/26/20 at 6:51 pm to Duke
Posted on 10/26/20 at 6:51 pm to Duke
quote:
Just a 25 mb swing between runs. Seems real dialed in.
But also *curses in meteorologist*
Sure, why not? Nearly every storm this season has gone against conventional wisdom, why not Zeta? Sheesh!
1
Posted on 10/26/20 at 6:52 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
I wonder if my avatar will chase this one. Hopefully he ends up at the tip of Plaquemines Parish.
That fricker needs to be selling used cars after that stupid shite he pulled last time.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 6:53 pm to LegendInMyMind
You know he's gonna stream somewhere.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 6:53 pm to TigerNAtux
Yeah, you better believe in god praying then because Yucatan hardly weakens most hurricanes in that part especially one that's not just sitting on it.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 6:54 pm to ihometiger
quote:
New Orleans S&WB just announced that Turbine #4 is out of service for storm.
This thing will be moving about 25 mph at landfall so heavy rain won’t be a big issue.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 6:54 pm to deuce985
quote:
Yeah, you better believe in god praying then because Yucatan hardly weakens most hurricanes in that part especially one that's not just sitting on it.
It barely even fazed Delta. There just aren't many mountains or anything there to really work over a storm.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 6:57 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
You know he's gonna stream somewhere.
Oh yeah, I'm sure he will. I'd still take him over that jack leg Jeff.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 6:58 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Nearly every storm this season has gone against conventional wisdom, why not Zeta? Sheesh!
No shite. This year has been something extra.
Did a little digging and it seems the 18z gets Zeta in far enough in front of the big shortwave and the 12z does not. One has a pretty solid moisture envelope and the other is all east side.
I mean, the 18z HWRF is doing slow strengthening with this fricking upper air profile:
So it has to be getting opened up by this point but it'll be moving so fast it hardly will matter unless the hostility can get in sooner or the storm is slower.
The HMON and GFS are a little calmer.
That's some deep shear too on the GFS if not as dramatic as the HWRF.
So like 3-6 hours is the difference here between a mess of a storm and a minimal hurricane.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:00 pm to Cosmo
Also, this model run here fricking sucks but how the hell are you going to have a strengthening borderline cat 3 by the time it hits land with those conditions
Is it just going to middle finger all the dry air and cooler waters? Defy what we know and be the very definition of a doomcane?
Is it just going to middle finger all the dry air and cooler waters? Defy what we know and be the very definition of a doomcane?
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:01 pm to ihometiger
quote:
New Orleans S&WB just announced that Turbine #4 is out of service for storm
Gotta bump those water bills up to $3,000.00. On second thought, that will,only cover the overtime for the employees who were supposed to keep the turbines running.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:06 pm to rds dc
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:12 pm to deuce985
quote:
Is it just going to middle finger all the dry air and cooler waters? Defy what we know and be the very definition of a doomcane?
After watching what Epsilon did out in the Atlantic, nothing surprises me.
It just said, "frick dry air and everything!" and made it's own environment.
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 7:13 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:13 pm to DhanTigers212
Zeta giving Mexico the bird.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:19 pm to TigerNAtux
quote:
New Orleans S&WB just announced that Turbine #4 is out of service for storm.
Any updates on the ones that caught fire, from earlier this year? Or are they just leaving those out now?
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:23 pm to td1
10pm update will be the best update? Or waiting to see zeta hit the gulf will be the updates we will be waiting on?
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:29 pm to rds dc
Both the 18z HWRF and Euro have Zeta landfall near Cocodrie in the mid to low 960s.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:31 pm to rds dc
Is that east or west of last run? Stronger or weaker? That’s a strong cat 2 right?
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 7:35 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:36 pm to rds dc
quote:
Both the 18z HWRF and Euro have Zeta landfall near Cocodrie in the mid to low 960s
Not want I want to hear. That puts me in the right front quadrant. I hope the circulation is somewhat broad like Isaac was. I measured 970 mb on my home barometer and the winds were 'only' about 45-50 gusting to maybe 60.
If the circulation is tighter and the pressure is in the 960s or even low 970s, I could see true hurricane force winds - at least in gusts.
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 7:38 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:43 pm to Theboot32
Wait, cold water and shear and HMON says almost a cat 3 ? What in the 2020 backwards peej predictions....
Posted on 10/26/20 at 7:44 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Not want I want to hear. That puts me in the right front quadrant. I hope the circulation is somewhat broad like Isaac was. I measured 970 mb on my home barometer and the winds were 'only' about 45-50 gusting to maybe 60.
If the circulation is tighter and the pressure is in the 960s or even low 970s, I could see true hurricane force winds - at least in gusts.
They both show a pretty compact legit looking hurricane. Have to see what the NHC thinks, if this trend continues. Part of the problem appears to be that the cutoff low coming out of the SW is slowing down and that is allowing for the system to have better conditions on approach to landfall vs. earlier runs that had the bowling ball low grinding up the the storm on approach.
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