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LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
11705 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
quote:

Just a 25 mb swing between runs. Seems real dialed in.

But also *curses in meteorologist*



Sure, why not? Nearly every storm this season has gone against conventional wisdom, why not Zeta? Sheesh!


LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
11705 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
quote:

I wonder if my avatar will chase this one. Hopefully he ends up at the tip of Plaquemines Parish.

That fricker needs to be selling used cars after that stupid shite he pulled last time.


Oates Mustache
US Space Force Fan
Member since Oct 2011
7976 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins


You know he's gonna stream somewhere.


deuce985
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2008
19116 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
Yeah, you better believe in god praying then because Yucatan hardly weakens most hurricanes in that part especially one that's not just sitting on it.


The Boat
Duke Fan
Clearwater Beach, Florida
Member since Oct 2008
120107 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
quote:

New Orleans S&WB just announced that Turbine #4 is out of service for storm.

This thing will be moving about 25 mph at landfall so heavy rain won’t be a big issue.


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101
LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
11705 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
quote:

Yeah, you better believe in god praying then because Yucatan hardly weakens most hurricanes in that part especially one that's not just sitting on it.

It barely even fazed Delta. There just aren't many mountains or anything there to really work over a storm.


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LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
11705 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
quote:

You know he's gonna stream somewhere.

Oh yeah, I'm sure he will. I'd still take him over that jack leg Jeff.


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Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
29964 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
quote:

Nearly every storm this season has gone against conventional wisdom, why not Zeta? Sheesh!



No shite. This year has been something extra.

Did a little digging and it seems the 18z gets Zeta in far enough in front of the big shortwave and the 12z does not. One has a pretty solid moisture envelope and the other is all east side.

I mean, the 18z HWRF is doing slow strengthening with this fricking upper air profile:

Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/hwrf_2020102618_fh51_sounding_91.37W,90.35W,28.21N,29.17N.png


So it has to be getting opened up by this point but it'll be moving so fast it hardly will matter unless the hostility can get in sooner or the storm is slower.

The HMON and GFS are a little calmer.

Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020102618/gfs_vortex_sounding_28L_9.png


That's some deep shear too on the GFS if not as dramatic as the HWRF.

So like 3-6 hours is the difference here between a mess of a storm and a minimal hurricane.


deuce985
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2008
19116 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
Also, this model run here fricking sucks but how the hell are you going to have a strengthening borderline cat 3 by the time it hits land with those conditions


Is it just going to middle finger all the dry air and cooler waters? Defy what we know and be the very definition of a doomcane?


Demshoes
LSU Fan
Up in here
Member since Aug 2015
4891 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
quote:

New Orleans S&WB just announced that Turbine #4 is out of service for storm


Gotta bump those water bills up to $3,000.00. On second thought, that will,only cover the overtime for the employees who were supposed to keep the turbines running.


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50
LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
11705 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
quote:

Is it just going to middle finger all the dry air and cooler waters? Defy what we know and be the very definition of a doomcane?

After watching what Epsilon did out in the Atlantic, nothing surprises me.

Image: https://i.postimg.cc/V5yvdtzG/20201021_210829.jpg


It just said, "frick dry air and everything!" and made it's own environment.

This post was edited on 10/26 at 7:13 pm


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130
TigerNAtux
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
14441 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
Zeta giving Mexico the bird.


td1
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2015
1253 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
quote:

New Orleans S&WB just announced that Turbine #4 is out of service for storm.


Any updates on the ones that caught fire, from earlier this year? Or are they just leaving those out now?


longhorn22
North Carolina Fan
Nicholls St. Fan
Member since Jan 2007
39635 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
10pm update will be the best update? Or waiting to see zeta hit the gulf will be the updates we will be waiting on?


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rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
16930 posts
 Online 

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
Both the 18z HWRF and Euro have Zeta landfall near Cocodrie in the mid to low 960s.


Theboot32
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2016
2313 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
Is that east or west of last run? Stronger or weaker? That’s a strong cat 2 right?
This post was edited on 10/26 at 7:35 pm


NorthEndZone
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2008
7205 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
quote:

Both the 18z HWRF and Euro have Zeta landfall near Cocodrie in the mid to low 960s


Not want I want to hear. That puts me in the right front quadrant. I hope the circulation is somewhat broad like Isaac was. I measured 970 mb on my home barometer and the winds were 'only' about 45-50 gusting to maybe 60.

If the circulation is tighter and the pressure is in the 960s or even low 970s, I could see true hurricane force winds - at least in gusts.
This post was edited on 10/26 at 7:38 pm


Notasnitch
Member since Dec 2017
185 posts

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
Wait, cold water and shear and HMON says almost a cat 3 ? What in the 2020 backwards peej predictions....


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60
rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
16930 posts
 Online 

re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
quote:

Not want I want to hear. That puts me in the right front quadrant. I hope the circulation is somewhat broad like Isaac was. I measured 970 mb on my home barometer and the winds were 'only' about 45-50 gusting to maybe 60.

If the circulation is tighter and the pressure is in the 960s or even low 970s, I could see true hurricane force winds - at least in gusts.


They both show a pretty compact legit looking hurricane. Have to see what the NHC thinks, if this trend continues. Part of the problem appears to be that the cutoff low coming out of the SW is slowing down and that is allowing for the system to have better conditions on approach to landfall vs. earlier runs that had the bowling ball low grinding up the the storm on approach.

Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020102612/hwrf_satIR_28L_10.png


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