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Started By
Message
re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:10 pm to rds dc
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:10 pm to rds dc
quote:
The problem, these big cutoff lows are very tricky to forecast and it is common to get bust on a 6 - 12hr forecast.
It's why I was hesitant to discount the western Euro solutions early on, I've seen this delay game enough on the GFS. Late October and our kicker is a few hours late. Might the recent strength in the globals be them seeing the shear vector lining up more with the steering? That plus a little synoptic help on the lifty side of the upper low?
I remember a similar thing happening with Michael (not saying this is going to be a Cat 5 of course).
2
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:11 pm to Capt ST
quote:
If we get to Theta no worries, gonna be big, but with a good personality.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:15 pm to Duke
quote:Why do I feel like I just read the lyrics to a ‘50’s doo-wop song??
Late October and our kicker is a few hours late. Might the recent strength in the globals be them seeing the shear vector lining up more with the steering? That plus a little synoptic help on the lifty side of the upper low?
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:15 pm to GreatLakesTiger24
In
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:18 pm to Duke
quote:
Might the recent strength in the globals be them seeing the shear vector lining up more with the steering?
That's what I started thinking when we started to see a hurricane at landfall yesterday. Models could be picking up the slower low and equating that to less shear, particularly on approach.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:19 pm to LegendInMyMind
So if the low is slow or late to the party does that mean Zeta comes more west or no?
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:21 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
So if the low is slow or late to the party does that mean Zeta comes more west or no?
That shouldn't change much, since we're talking fine details of the UL arrival time in terms of shear and dry air. It's still going to be enough to start breaking down the ridge and get it going NE by Wednesday evening.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:31 pm to LSURussian
If we make it to Kappa Im posting nothing but Kappa rap
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:35 pm to Duke
quote:
shouldn't change much, since we're talking fine details of the UL arrival time in terms of shear and dry air. It's still going to be enough to start breaking down the ridge and get it going NE by Wednesday evening.
I gotcha. Thanks
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:52 pm to Duke
What god(s) do we pray and sacrifice to that this clips the mouth of the river and goes somewhere else or only ends up as a weak TS?
What volcano do we throw peej in?
What volcano do we throw peej in?
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:54 pm to Cosmo
quote:
If we make it to Kappa Im posting nothing but Kappa rap
Those girls are like 40 with 3 kids now
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:55 pm to Notasnitch
As of right now I'm in the clear. Someone burn peej's trailer down before he says the West is in the clear.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:56 pm to Notasnitch
quote:
What volcano do we throw peej in?
Well, something has to break the curse. I'm all for trying this.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:59 pm to The Boat
quote:
Those girls are like 40 with 3 kids now
Naw. Early 30s.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:00 pm to X123F45
Site of landfall has moved <50 miles in 48 hours. I think they are dialed in
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:00 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Those girls are like 40 with 3 kids now
quote:
Naw. Early 30s.
What's the difference
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 10:05 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:01 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Site of landfall has moved <50 miles in 48 hours. I think they are dialed in
Like I said for Delta. Fall steering patterns make this way easier than the doldrums of summer.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:02 pm to The Boat
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:02 pm to The Boat
More East
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:03 pm to fladohado
Not really.
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