re: Zeta - The cleanup begins

quote:

---

262
WTNT43 KNHC 262049
TCDAT3

Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

The cloud pattern of Zeta became better organized today, with deep
convection forming over and around the center and some banding
features developing. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
recently found surface winds to near 70 kt over the inner
northeastern quadrant of the circulation and a central pressure of
around 981 mb, signifying that the system had become a hurricane.
Given the increased organization over very warm waters, some
additional strengthening is possible before the center crosses the
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. Some weakening
should occur while Zeta interacts with land tonight and early
Tuesday. Once the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico
tomorrow, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive for some
re-strengthening. When Zeta moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico
later on Wednesday, cooler shelf waters and some increase in
southwesterly shear should halt the intensification process, with
some weakening possible by the time the center reaches the northern
Gulf Coast, but Zeta is still expected to be at or near hurricane
intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and is near or above the model consensus.

The hurricane continues to move on a generally northwestward track,
or at about 305/10 kt. There are basically no changes to the track
forecast reasoning, or to the forecast itself. For the next couple
of days, Zeta should move around the southwestern and western
periphery of a mid-level high pressure area centered just east of
Florida. Thereafter, a shortwave trough approaching from the west
is likely to cause the cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward to
northeastward and move over the southeastern and eastern United
States. The system should move off the northeast U.S. coast and
become an extratropical cyclone within the next 4 days. The
guidance has come into better agreement since yesterday, and the
official track forecast is very close to the corrected model
consensus, HCCA.

Storm Surge, Hurricane, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued
for a portion of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening
through early Tuesday. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall is expected
across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and central to
western Cuba, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are
possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and
Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the
watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected
from portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southern
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta.
This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor
river flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 19.5N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 20.5N 87.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.1N 89.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 24.2N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 26.8N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 30.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 35.0N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 42.0N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

---

quote:

---

So what are your plans for you and the Duchess for this one?

---

quote:

---

This could have been copy/pasted from several Delta discussions.

---