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re: Weather for Monday, May 20. Attention: N TX, Cen. OK, S KS High risk forecast

Posted on 5/19/19 at 9:18 am to
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24968 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 9:18 am to
N Texas is blue bird skies right now...yesterday was some terrible thunderstorms though.
Posted by FCP
Delta State Univ. - Fightin' Okra
Member since Sep 2010
5088 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 9:29 am to
Caught either a small vortex or some strong straight line winds up in NW Livingston Parish about 8:15 this morning. Trees across driveway and one fell on the chicken house

Not sure whether it was a twister, but we’ve got some pretty good size healthy oak trees laid down up here. Waiting on the rain to stop so we can fire up the chainsaws.

Whatever it was, we were fortunate/blessed/lucky that it didn’t touch our house. Y’all are especially lucky since I was taking a shower when it passed through. Y’all didn’t have to see my naked self standing there.
This post was edited on 5/19/19 at 7:25 pm
Posted by BayouBengals18
Fort Worth
Member since Jan 2009
9843 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 9:49 am to
quote:

I feel like it’s stormed every Saturday in DFW for a month.


My son’s soccer league was pushed back two weeks(would’ve been 3, but we played a makeup game Easter weekend), and they cancelled the championship games for the 10 and 12 year olds yesterday. The flooding was crazy out in my area yesterday (Alliance/Haslet). Both exits of my neighborhood were actually blocked for a little while.
Posted by jlc05
Member since Nov 2005
33368 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 10:20 am to
How many pumps are working in Orleans Parish?
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 10:27 am to
quote:

How many pumps are working in Orleans Parish?



110 out of 115
Posted by LSU Tigershark
10,000 posts
Member since Dec 2007
10568 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 10:33 am to
Ville Platte is under state of emergency. From what I have seen posted, a tornado hit near VPHS (Highschool Rd), crossed Main St, and hit toward Walmart and Herbert's Boudin on Tate Cove Rd
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10096 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 11:01 am to
We done in BR?
Posted by Bedhog
Denham Springs
Member since Apr 2019
3741 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 11:24 am to
Tornado tore up Bear creek western store in Montpelier
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66868 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 12:42 pm to
Update from SPC:
quote:

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains on Monday. ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY... ...Southern Plains... A complicated, yet potentially higher-end severe weather scenario will unfold across the southern Plains throughout the forecast period. Height falls associated with an approaching longwave trough centered over Arizona will overlie a strong surface dryline along the New Mexico/Texas border, resulting in a north-south oriented band of storms in that area around 12Z or so. These storms will migrate northeastward and contain a threat for hail and damaging wind gusts throughout the morning due to steep mid-level lapse rates and supercellular wind profiles. A tornado threat may also exist on the southern end of this activity - especially where convection can become surface-based and remain discrete amidst with slightly higher boundary layer moisture (i.e., upper 60s to 70s dewpoints). The evolution of this early morning complex will impact the severe risk in downstream areas of Oklahoma and northwest Texas through the afternoon and evening. A variety of operational models and CAMS suggest that some portions of this MCS will interact with the northward-moving surface warm front and possibly retard its movement into northern portions of the outlook area (near the OK/KS border area). Meanwhile, most model solutions suggest the development of isolated convection out ahead of any ongoing MCS activity - with this risk most evident across portions of southwestern Oklahoma and vicinity. These storms are expected to reside in a environmental parameter space supportive of all severe hazards, including significant hail and strong tornadoes, and this risk should be maximized as long as discrete, cellular convection can persist through the forecast period. This risk will become further enhanced by an increasingly strong low-level jet across the region during the early evening should storms maintain a relatively discrete mode.
Posted by Bedhog
Denham Springs
Member since Apr 2019
3741 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 1:39 pm to
Bear Creek.
Posted by Nicky Parrish
Member since Apr 2016
7098 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 3:21 pm to
100% of those that are working.
Posted by FCP
Delta State Univ. - Fightin' Okra
Member since Sep 2010
5088 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 7:24 pm to
quote:

Caught either a small vortex or some strong straight line winds up in NW Livingston Parish about 8:15 this morning.
Ended up having about ten total trees down. Had chainsaws, skid-steer, and front end loader working all day to get things cleared out. Had downed trees on all 4 sides but not a scratch on the house. By every indication it was a tornado--probably the same one that hit Bear Creek a few minutes later.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 7:25 pm to
I hope you took pictures.

Send that to the NWS in Slidell.
Posted by FCP
Delta State Univ. - Fightin' Okra
Member since Sep 2010
5088 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 7:34 pm to
quote:

Send that to the NWS in Slidell.
Think the wife is working on that. Funny thing: Our phones have been blowing up with storm alerts for the past few weeks. Today--when the storm actually hit--we got zilch. No alarm, no alert, nothing. We were actually looking at the approaching storm line on radar and thinking it looked problematic.
Posted by redneck hippie
Oklahoma
Member since Dec 2008
6263 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 7:52 pm to
They just closed Oklahoma City schools.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66868 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 8:06 pm to
quote:

They just closed Oklahoma City schools.


Nowadays it is a low threshold to close schools in advance.
Posted by Hawgeye
tFlagship Brothel
Member since Jun 2009
32332 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 8:09 pm to
quote:

Nowadays it is a low threshold to close schools in advance.


In Tulsa and not sure how much we will get tomorrow as most of the talk is for SW OK and OKC area.

Tomorrow is the anniversary of the Moore tornado. Those folks have plenty of reasons to be overly cautious. They’re supposed to get it again tomorrow as well.
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
28926 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 8:14 pm to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21000 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 9:58 pm to
This would be problematic from about hour 10 - 28, that would be 18hrs of hell, but I tend to think things will be messier and build quickly upscale (maybe that is just me being hopeful...)

Posted by StraightCashHomey21
Aberdeen,NC
Member since Jul 2009
126568 posts
Posted on 5/19/19 at 10:07 pm to
Stay safe out there baws

Here in SW Oklahoma we are in the most dangerous zone

But my god if one of these tornados hit DFW, OKC or Tulsa
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