re: Weather Board: Enhanced (3 out of 5) Risk for Yankees This PM. Tornado Watch For Masters

...East Texas through western Alabama...
Models indicate ongoing convection at the start of the period across
north Texas, which may pose a risk for hail given steep mid-level
lapse rates in that area. Through the day, storms will gradually
become more widespread across Arkansas and Louisiana through midday
and toward evening. Weak to moderate buoyancy, strong deep shear,
and backed low-level winds will favor all modes of severe, with
tornadoes and damaging wind gusts being the primary threats.
Particularly concerning is the hint in nearly all guidance that
convection will develop within the free warm sector well removed
from any fronts during peak heating hours. This scenario would
likely result in potential for several tornadoes (a few significant)
and damaging wind gusts assuming instability profiles verify as
currently progged. Concerns remain regarding timing of the wave and
subsequent convective development, with an overall westward trend
apparent in convective evolution compared to yesterday's runs. Some
continued disagreement also exists in most recent guidance with
regard to eastward progression of convection. Instability may also
become a limiting factor if too many storms form and result in
unfavorable storm-scale interactions. Nevertheless, a synoptically
evident severe weather episode appears likely to unfold - especially
within the Enhanced Risk area.