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Posted on 4/11/19 at 4:31 pm to slackster
So did some model sounding checking and it's impressive for the enhanced zone.
For central Louisiana. LCL practically ground level and abundant low level shear in place. That's primed for tornado production. Steep lapse rates keep hail a threat as well.
I'll note the hodograph isn't quite the nice sickle shape we've been seeing, but it's outside my knowledge base to speculate how much of an effect that would have. I'll trust the SPC or rds to point out any potential VBV considerations.
Up around Monroe/Winnsboro suggests a dangerous situation. LCL near surface, which is also the level of free convection. Abundant 0-1 km shear. This is for the mid afternoon Saturday.
Another two days to see how it actually evolves but this set up does have dangerous potential.
For central Louisiana. LCL practically ground level and abundant low level shear in place. That's primed for tornado production. Steep lapse rates keep hail a threat as well.
I'll note the hodograph isn't quite the nice sickle shape we've been seeing, but it's outside my knowledge base to speculate how much of an effect that would have. I'll trust the SPC or rds to point out any potential VBV considerations.
Up around Monroe/Winnsboro suggests a dangerous situation. LCL near surface, which is also the level of free convection. Abundant 0-1 km shear. This is for the mid afternoon Saturday.
Another two days to see how it actually evolves but this set up does have dangerous potential.
Posted on 4/11/19 at 4:33 pm to TH03
Last Sunday was supposed to be 100% chance of the skies falling on us....im talking it was supposed to be a complete washout and we were all going to die...
It rained for 4 minutes
this will be another nothingburger
It rained for 4 minutes
this will be another nothingburger
Posted on 4/11/19 at 4:36 pm to Duke
I can't pretend to know how to decode all that. 
How's the setup looking in the Shreveport area?
How's the setup looking in the Shreveport area? 
Posted on 4/11/19 at 4:38 pm to tgrbaitn08
You mean when it flooded?
Posted on 4/11/19 at 4:39 pm to Duke
I know Steve Caparotta said during the noon news he wouldn't be surprised if some part of the Enhanced risk got upgraded to Moderate in the coming outlook.
Posted on 4/11/19 at 4:41 pm to When in Rome
I’m flying into DFW at 7:30 Saturday morning and back out at 8:30 on way to Cabo. Please tell me my flight won’t be delayed
Posted on 4/11/19 at 4:43 pm to Lsuhoohoo
quote:
I can't pretend to know how to decode all that.
I wouldn't expect you to. It's more for me to put some thoughts down in writing.
quote:
How's the setup looking in the Shreveport area?
Same as it's been. Hail. Tornadoes. All possible from late morning to before sunset. Some could have significant tornadoes.
Posted on 4/11/19 at 4:45 pm to TH03
quote:
You mean when it flooded?
It didn’t flood last Sunday
Posted on 4/11/19 at 4:49 pm to lsuman25
quote:
I know Steve Caparotta said during the noon news he wouldn't be surprised if some part of the Enhanced risk got upgraded to Moderate in the coming outlook.
Wouldn't be surprised at all. Lot of storm chasers are coming down to the terrible terrain of the SE because the set up is as good as it is.
Posted on 4/11/19 at 4:59 pm to tgrbaitn08
I was waiting on this post from you. Tigarag would be very proud. LOL
This post was edited on 4/11/19 at 5:01 pm
Posted on 4/11/19 at 5:04 pm to notiger1997
Feels good to hear that. Thanks
Posted on 4/11/19 at 5:31 pm to notiger1997
Sarah Dillingham
?
Verified account
@SarahDillingham
5m5 minutes ago
More Sarah Dillingham Retweeted Sarah Dillingham
#Just In: TorCon upgraded from 5 to 6 for portions of northern Louisiana, far eastern Texas, western Mississippi, & southern Arkansas. This means there is a 60% chance of a #tornado within 50 miles of any point in these areas. Stay tuned @weatherchannel as we follow the forecast!
It just got upgraded to a 6 so ignore the 5.
?
Verified account
@SarahDillingham
5m5 minutes ago
More Sarah Dillingham Retweeted Sarah Dillingham
#Just In: TorCon upgraded from 5 to 6 for portions of northern Louisiana, far eastern Texas, western Mississippi, & southern Arkansas. This means there is a 60% chance of a #tornado within 50 miles of any point in these areas. Stay tuned @weatherchannel as we follow the forecast!
It just got upgraded to a 6 so ignore the 5.
This post was edited on 4/11/19 at 5:37 pm
Posted on 4/11/19 at 5:34 pm to lsuman25
quote:
#JustIn
They're naming thunderstorms now?
Posted on 4/11/19 at 5:35 pm to lsuman25
I'm intrigued about the next 30 days for the Mississippi River. I follow a YouTube channel hunter/bushcraft guy and it's still pissing snow in Ontario and other parts of Canada that has feeders into the MR.
Posted on 4/11/19 at 5:36 pm to Jim Rockford
it's supposed to be Just In not Justin LOL.
Posted on 4/11/19 at 5:38 pm to lsuman25
Posted on 4/11/19 at 5:38 pm to lsuman25
A 6 would translate to 30% tornado for the SPC iirc, which would be a moderate risk.
Posted on 4/11/19 at 5:41 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Last Sunday was supposed to be 100% chance of the skies falling on us....im talking it was supposed to be a complete washout and we were all going to die... It rained for 4 minutes
Link?
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