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Message

re: TS Elsa - Heading off to the NE, Then Shut the Tropics Down for a Couple of Weeks

Posted on 7/5/21 at 11:05 pm to
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67067 posts
Posted on 7/5/21 at 11:05 pm to
The next couple days may be decent water spout days for folks near the coast. We may see some good videos from it.
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
31976 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 6:51 am to
quote:

National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic

Tropical Storm #Elsa Advisory 24A: Elsa Just West of Key West. Expected to Strengthen.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 8:43 am to
quote:

I love what the Euro is doing this year.


00z & 06z still try to make a hurricane out of this.

Host - Euro, what is your final prediction?

Euro - Open wave lifting out east of Florida through the Bahamas.

Host - Is that your final answer?

Euro - Yes! Wait.

Host - Most other models show this as a weak storm in the Gulf.

Euro - I changed my mind. Hurricane in the Gulf!

It really is a clown show right now in the tropics.

Narrator - The next day Elsa strengthened into a hurricane in the Gulf and all declared the Euro King!
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 8:48 am to
The Euro nailed Elsa.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
12270 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 9:18 am to
live streaming in the Keys shows moms and kids strolling on wharves right now at Islamorado. I don's see any waves out of the ordinary thunderstorm where facing the water and wind.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
12270 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:50 am to
Maybe one of the buoys will pick up the NHC windspeed, not even close yet. 30kts or less for the most part
Posted by Wolfhound45
Member since Nov 2009
121779 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:52 am to
Elsa is giving us a good, early lashing right now in the Tampa area.
Posted by VABuckeye
NOVA
Member since Dec 2007
37708 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:54 am to
Rainy day here in Naples but that's about it. No wind to speak of.

ETA: Forecast says windy in a few hours but nothing crazy. 25-35.
This post was edited on 7/6/21 at 10:56 am
Posted by Wolfhound45
Member since Nov 2009
121779 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 11:13 am to
I am in Palmetto. Poured down just now. But yeah, no high winds.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67067 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 11:32 am to
quote:

00z & 06z still try to make a hurricane out of this.

Host - Euro, what is your final prediction?

Euro - Open wave lifting out east of Florida through the Bahamas.

Host - Is that your final answer?

Euro - Yes! Wait.

Host - Most other models show this as a weak storm in the Gulf.

Euro - I changed my mind. Hurricane in the Gulf!

It really is a clown show right now in the tropics.

Narrator - The next day Elsa strengthened into a hurricane in the Gulf and all declared the Euro King!



Posted by TheOcean
#honeyfriedchicken
Member since Aug 2004
44452 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 11:41 am to
I'm close to you. Need to move all my shite from my dock. Hearing 60mph winds
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 11:54 am to
Convection attempting to build upshear (into the shear and towards the LLC). This can lower surface pressures even if shear eventually beats the convection back. Storms are pretty solid so a good shot at heavy rain and wind along Western Florida today & tonight.



ETA: Recon VDM pins it at 1000mb, so for once the convective pattern and recon match up lol
This post was edited on 7/6/21 at 12:30 pm
Posted by PetroBabich
Donetsk Oblast
Member since Apr 2017
4932 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 12:00 pm to
I escaped Tampa via the airport earlier this morning. All was quiet but I assumed the storm would start dicking all the flights up by the afternoon.
Posted by Centinel
Idaho
Member since Sep 2016
44051 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 12:01 pm to
Looks like I won't have to water the garden Thursday. Sweeeeet.

Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67067 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 1:12 pm to
Waterspouts are popping up here and there today. With how Elsa is organized and a chance on both sides of the peninsula, some good video of them could be caught. I like a good waterspout video, so I'm hoping some folks have their cameras ready.
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
214035 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 1:31 pm to
You are actually hoping for water spouts????
Posted by roadGator
Member since Feb 2009
150797 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 1:45 pm to
Saw one in the bay once in Tampa. Beautiful to watch.

So much power.
Posted by A Smoke Break
Lafayette
Member since Nov 2018
2175 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

You are actually hoping for water spouts????


Posted by Purple Spoon
Hoth
Member since Feb 2005
19363 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 1:52 pm to
JBE press conference this evening-

“Now is not the time to let you guard down. We all know how unpredictable these storms are. Smack. This is a very dangerous storm and has the potential to cause significant damage. Smack. Please continue taking precautions and put you personal emergency plans in place. Smack, *white foam in corner of mouth*. The most important part of that plan is to make sure you get vaccinated? Smack ummmm.”
Posted by gatorsimz
cafe risque
Member since Feb 2009
8181 posts
Posted on 7/6/21 at 2:02 pm to
Looks like it’s heading right for Gainesville with us getting the NE side of the storm. We had pretty bad flooding and a ton of downed trees from Irma a few years ago and that was as a weak cat 1 / TS and with it still pretty far west from us. We have so many damn trees here and big flooding areas with a shitty infrastructure, Gville is screwed if it ever gets a direct hit. There are a lot of Floridians that have never gotten a direct hit (eyewall) from one of these things and act like they’re no big deal.
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