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sledgehammer
USA Fan
SWLA
Member since Oct 2020
1036 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

SWLA. Most of the rain coming throughout the day Monday with as much as 10” in a 6 hour window in some places

I hope this isn’t going to be another May flood disaster for us in Lake Charles. I do predict ample shark sightings on Enterprise Blvd though.


gizmothepug
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Apr 2015
2596 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

I wouldn't be surprised if it was much less than we suspect. Like some sustained winds of 60-70 and a gust or two at 90.


No way of knowing but had to be hurricane force gusts in western Washington Parish that night. A huge oak in my neighbors yard snapped like a twig about 8 feet up before the power went out about 8:30.


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BregmansWheelbarrow
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2020
1244 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
I’m assuming that at this point, this is going to be a heavy rainfall event more than a full on wind, surge and tornado hurricane event? Looking at what is projected now, looks like an unorganized tropical depression


Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
31958 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
Careful.

We're not talking anything crazy like Ida but it forms in the right spot it could organize into a decent TS to even a min hurricane. Rain will still be the main story but I wouldnt write it off as just a weak TS just yet.


Rick9Plus
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2020
393 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

I live in south Gonzales and my lowest pressure was 28.91 inches (979 mb).

I got down to 972.


In Denham Springs (well, just south of it by the Amite), mine read 975.


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BregmansWheelbarrow
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2020
1244 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
That’s why I was going by current projections. I don’t count my chickens


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TDsngumbo
USA Fan
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
31787 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

Careful.

We're not talking anything crazy like Ida but it forms in the right spot it could organize into a decent TS to even a min hurricane. Rain will still be the main story but I wouldnt write it off as just a weak TS just yet.

Image: https://media.giphy.com/media/3kIcyN7fUtlUA/giphy.gif


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121
Jim Rockford
LSU Fan
Member since May 2011
85136 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

Wunderground has a bunch of weather stations from people's houses linked that you can find on a map, but at about 10pm they weren't registering anything, probably because they rely on electricity.


I question how well some of those are calibrated. Some within a few miles of each other were showing radically different wind speeds and directions at the same time. Granted there can be local gusts but one shouldn't be showing SSW while another just down the road shows due E
This post was edited on 9/11 at 12:19 pm


LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
25868 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
You kind of have to hate the 12Z GFS run. It doesn't stall it after landfall, but keeps it just offshore enough to let it get better organized and strengthen some. It rides the TX coast, gets to 996mb and makes "landfall" near Lake Chuck.

Let's see if that becomes a trend. It had that solution on the 18Z run yesterday, but went away from it. Now, it is back.


trussthetruzz
USA Fan
Here and There
Member since Sep 2020
1338 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
Brings the shitty stuff to sela also


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31
TDsngumbo
USA Fan
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
31787 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

I question how well done of those are calibrated. Some within a few miles of each other were showing radically different wind speeds and directions at the same time. Granted there can be local gusts but one shouldn't be showing SSW while another just down the road shows due E

Right, they must be placed perfectly in order to collect an accurate wind reading. My vantage pro 2, for example, is placed 23’ above the surface because I can’t safely place it at the required height of 33’. On top of that, it’s only accurate for wind blowing out of the ESE due to trees blocking every other direction.

The highest reading it measured the night of Ida was 78mph out of the ENE and then it got hit by debris or something and stopped being anywhere close to accurate after that. This was an hour and a half before the hardest winds started blowing out of almost due north. my gusts had to be 100-115mph.


LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
25868 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

I question how well done of those are calibrated.

You're always going to have that issue with that type equipment.

As far as the wind direction and speed, that isn't unbelievable. With the nature of Ida's eye and eyewall, readings could have varied widely across a relatively small area.
This post was edited on 9/11 at 12:24 pm


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RockChalkTiger
USA Fan
Member since May 2009
6337 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
LC’s last year:
Direct hit by Cat 4, freeze, flood, dodge bullet, flood again!
If that was a relationship, I would dump that crazy bitch!


Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
31958 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

TDsngumbo


You down in SE Ascension right?

100 mph+ gusts are a reasonable guess down there. You caught the core.


Cosmo
Houston Astros Fan
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
108478 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana


sledgehammer
USA Fan
SWLA
Member since Oct 2020
1036 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

LC’s last year:
Direct hit by Cat 4, freeze, flood, dodge bullet, flood again!


You’re forgetting Hurricane Delta 6 weeks after Laura. Yeah, it was only a cat 2, but those winds tore up my tarp allowing more water into my house.


deltaland
Arkansas Fan
Member since Mar 2011
65984 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana


udtiger
US Space Force Fan
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2006
79860 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
'Tis the season...


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51
texastiger38
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Sep 2007
23372 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

. Models have been all over the place but the one common theme has been the potential for some bigtime rain totals.


We aren’t talking Harvey/Imelda for Beaumont area right? I’d like to make at least one more year till we flood again


Tarps99
New Orleans Saints Fan
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
3053 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

Tropics really heating up now Image: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png



Watching 4 systems in the Gulf of Mexico

-Signed
The Crack Weather Staff of The Advocate
This post was edited on 9/11 at 2:50 pm


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