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Started By
Message
re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
Posted on 9/10/21 at 9:12 am to Tigerpride18
Posted on 9/10/21 at 9:12 am to Tigerpride18
quote:
Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
We did it. It’s officially 59 degrees at the airport [ETA: AEX - Alexandria Airport], and 57 at Esler Field. I haven’t stepped outside yet, but am anxiously awaiting this burst of comfort. But that’s not what this post is about.
We are right at the peak of tropical season. Larry is still out there putting on a show, and will eventually dump several feet of snow in parts of Greenland! I’ve always wanted to visit Greenland, and what better time than a hurricane turned blizzard. Alright, I’ll stay, but someday. Locally, it looks like the tropical wave crossing Central America will try and develop over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The models aren’t signaling anything terribly strong, but a slow moving system is possible, and if this comes in along the Texas coast, it will give us a quick return to humid conditions, and really beef up the rain chances.
This doesn’t look like a huge wind threat, but it’s worth monitoring. For now, I’m thinking the main impact is rain, and as you can see by the early WPC forecast, there could easily be a bullseye of 7-10 inches to our southwest. Rain chances will start to perk up late Sunday into Monday, and because this system will move slowly, high rain chances will continue through at least Wednesday. There could be a pretty large range of rain totals from the southwest Louisiana coast to the I-20 corridor, but for now, I’d plan on a solid 2-4 inch rain through most of Central Louisiana, and I’ll get more specific as this gets closer. Unlike Ida, this system should stay west of us, so we should see a decent amount of rain across the area. Also, unlike Ida, this shouldn’t be a strong system, so don’t panic. The main issue here is a slow moving rainmaker. I’ll keep you posted.
This post was edited on 9/10/21 at 9:14 am
2
Posted on 9/10/21 at 9:14 am to rt3
Sounds like another stat padding 45 mph TS is incoming
This post was edited on 9/10/21 at 9:14 am
Posted on 9/10/21 at 9:59 am to Cosmo
Posted on 9/10/21 at 10:45 am to Cosmo
quote:
Sounds like another stat padding 45 mph TS is incoming
Maybe but if it forms the center on the N or NE side of that area we're looking to for formation, it'll get some lower shear. We're not talking a major or anything but right formation spot and a min hurricane wouldnt be surprising.
Though, as the thread title says, flooding is concern 1A and 1B.
Posted on 9/10/21 at 10:48 am to Duke
wouldn’t mine the rain for South Texas, but i’m hoping it’s not another Harvey situation. too soon to predict how quickly it’ll move along?
Posted on 9/10/21 at 10:58 am to rt3
quote:
Larry is still out there putting on a show, and will eventually dump several feet of snow in parts of Greenland!
Five or six feet is what they are calling for. That's apocalyptical for most, but probably isn't too surprising for Greenland.
This post was edited on 9/10/21 at 11:45 am
Posted on 9/10/21 at 11:05 am to rds dc
Thats the last thing I want to see.
Posted on 9/10/21 at 11:12 am to Klark Kent
quote:
too soon to predict how quickly it’ll move along?
Looks like it's going to pull a stall, but not sure for how long.
That's not going to move anything out of the way.
This post was edited on 9/10/21 at 11:53 am
Posted on 9/10/21 at 11:19 am to Klark Kent
The rain projection through Wednesday is 6-8 inches for southeast Texas. Could cause some localized flooding, especially street flooding.
Harvey was 20-30 inches in that time frame, I believe.
Harvey was 20-30 inches in that time frame, I believe.
Posted on 9/10/21 at 11:37 am to Duke
quote:
Looks like it's going to pull a stall, but not sure for how long.
This shite is getting ridiculous...
Posted on 9/10/21 at 11:48 am to Keys Open Doors
quote:
The rain projection through Wednesday is 6-8 inches for southeast Texas. Could cause some localized flooding, especially street flooding.
Dont trust those yet but we're also not talking about a Harvey repeat.
Posted on 9/10/21 at 12:33 pm to Duke
Euro rain totals are a bit scarier than the gfs. Looks like neither develops the system, but the gfs spreads the rain along the coast while the euro concentrates it between Houston and LC.
Posted on 9/10/21 at 1:06 pm to Keys Open Doors
quote:
6-8 inches for southeast Texas
I always tell my girlfriend this but I never exceed expectations.
Whoops wrong board…
Posted on 9/10/21 at 6:51 pm to Tarps99
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the western Atlantic several hundred miles
southwest of Newfoundland, Canada.
The northern part of a tropical wave is interacting with a surface
trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The merger of these
features is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America, the
Yucatan peninsula, and Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday
before the system moves near or onshore of the western Gulf of
Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance is
expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday which may lead to flash
flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely
reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas
and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant
rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and
urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the western Atlantic several hundred miles
southwest of Newfoundland, Canada.
The northern part of a tropical wave is interacting with a surface
trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The merger of these
features is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America, the
Yucatan peninsula, and Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday
before the system moves near or onshore of the western Gulf of
Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance is
expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday which may lead to flash
flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely
reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas
and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant
rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and
urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Posted on 9/10/21 at 6:54 pm to rds dc
NHC up to 80%
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the western Atlantic several hundred miles
southwest of Newfoundland, Canada.
1. The northern part of a tropical wave is interacting with a surface
trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The merger of these
features is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America, the
Yucatan peninsula, and Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday
before the system moves near or onshore of the western Gulf of
Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance is
expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday which may lead to flash
flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely
reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas
and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant
rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and
urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the western Atlantic several hundred miles
southwest of Newfoundland, Canada.
1. The northern part of a tropical wave is interacting with a surface
trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The merger of these
features is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America, the
Yucatan peninsula, and Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday
before the system moves near or onshore of the western Gulf of
Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance is
expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday which may lead to flash
flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely
reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas
and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant
rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and
urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Posted on 9/10/21 at 6:55 pm to rds dc
This was the storm the GFS models had hitting SW Louisiana next week.
Posted on 9/10/21 at 7:12 pm to rds dc
The 18Z GFS is getting a bit more interesting. It has it developing a bit more and riding Eastward right along the coast, which makes sense right now.
Posted on 9/10/21 at 7:27 pm to Cosmo
quote:Six of those this year.
Sounds like another stat padding 45 mph TS is incoming
Posted on 9/10/21 at 8:11 pm to Keys Open Doors
quote:
The rain projection through Wednesday is 6-8 inches for southeast Texas. Could cause some localized flooding, especially street flooding.
Harvey was 20-30 inches in that time frame, I believe.
I can’t even compete with 6-8 much less BBC Harvey.
Posted on 9/10/21 at 8:19 pm to rds dc
This is getting ridiculous.
Please God, make it stop.
Please God, make it stop.
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