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Cosmo
Houston Astros Fan
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
109072 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

We aren’t talking Harvey/Imelda for Beaumont area right?


As of now no

Looks like somebody might get 10-15” over 3 days with widespread 5” or so


TDsngumbo
USA Fan
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
32456 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

You down in SE Ascension right?

100 mph+ gusts are a reasonable guess down there. You caught the core.

Actually just a couple miles south of Port Vincent in the northeastern tip of Ascension. The core came here also and I’m pretty sure we caught a tiny section of the eye in a wobble because the winds went from a constant deep roar and destructive nature to a “calm” 40-50mph for about 20 minutes then came out of a slightly different direction pretty frickin strong again. It didn’t last long so I think it might’ve been a little wobble that I caught.


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30
dukke v
LSU Fan
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
187955 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
I don’t want to see that.


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02
SLafourche07
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2008
9254 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

Looks like somebody might get 10-15”



Not at my house.


quote:

with widespread 5” or so




That’s more like it.


BregmansWheelbarrow
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2020
1284 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
I think I live in the one tiny part of swla where 6 inches of rain is little more than an inconvenience but I do not want to be out of power for weeks on end ever again


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70
LSUJuice
LSU Fan
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
17255 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
Luckily the ground is dry, so the first 2-3 inches just soak in.


texastiger38
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Sep 2007
23530 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

Looks like somebody might get 10-15” over 3 days with widespread 5” or so


We can handle that. Had 17” back in the spring in a day and we were fine


Cosmo
Houston Astros Fan
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
109072 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

Luckily the ground is dry, so the first 2-3 inches just soak in.


Yeah there has been very little rain in SWLA over last couple weeks


The Boat
Duke Fan
Tim McGraw Country
Member since Oct 2008
137935 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana


LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
27000 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
18Z keeps it a little farther off the coast with roughly the same landfall. It is a bit weaker at landfall, but it does get down to 993mb prior to approach. You almost want to see it ride the coast, though, instead of being off the coast like this run.


The Boat
Duke Fan
Tim McGraw Country
Member since Oct 2008
137935 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
It's quite a bit east of a lot of models putting it onshore around corpus. That run is the LA/Texas state line.

This is going to be a sloppy weak rainmaker but farther east means higher rainfall chances in eastern Louisiana.


LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
27000 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

It's quite a bit east of a lot of models putting it onshore around corpus. That run is the LA/Texas state line.


The 12Z GFS started that trend.

On another note, the GFS hates the Northeast right now.


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20
Klark Kent
LSU Fan
Houston via BR
Member since Jan 2008
56415 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana


Cosmo
Houston Astros Fan
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
109072 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
GFS ensemble is way west but the actual model run is around LC


texastiger38
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Sep 2007
23530 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

17” in 24 hours


quote:

Over 17" recorded near Fannett, TX. This area cannot catch a break. Some homes flooded for the 3rd time since 2017. Fannett was not the only area to


This was on May 17 of this year.


Kcrad
LSU Fan
Slidell
Member since Nov 2010
42345 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
quote:

Had 17” back in the spring in a day


17” in 24 hours?

I guess his wife reads the OT.


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30
CuseTiger
Syracuse Fan
PNW
Member since Jul 2013
7075 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
Flying down there on Wednesday and looks like I'm flying into whatever remnants head over Baton Rouge


Bobby OG Johnson
USA Fan
Member since Apr 2015
16071 posts
 Online 

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana


Klark Kent
LSU Fan
Houston via BR
Member since Jan 2008
56415 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana


LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
27000 posts

re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
That Southern most area coming off Africa could be interesting.


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