re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana

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You down in SE Ascension right?

100 mph+ gusts are a reasonable guess down there. You caught the core.

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Actually just a couple miles south of Port Vincent in the northeastern tip of Ascension. The core came here also and I’m pretty sure we caught a tiny section of the eye in a wobble because the winds went from a constant deep roar and destructive nature to a “calm” 40-50mph for about 20 minutes then came out of a slightly different direction pretty frickin strong again. It didn’t last long so I think it might’ve been a little wobble that I caught.

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Looks like somebody might get 10-15”

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Not at my house.

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with widespread 5” or so

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That’s more like it.

Luckily the ground is dry, so the first 2-3 inches just soak in.

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Luckily the ground is dry, so the first 2-3 inches just soak in.

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Yeah there has been very little rain in SWLA over last couple weeks

18Z keeps it a little farther off the coast with roughly the same landfall. It is a bit weaker at landfall, but it does get down to 993mb prior to approach. You almost want to see it ride the coast, though, instead of being off the coast like this run.

It's quite a bit east of a lot of models putting it onshore around corpus. That run is the LA/Texas state line.

This is going to be a sloppy weak rainmaker but farther east means higher rainfall chances in eastern Louisiana.

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Had 17” back in the spring in a day

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17” in 24 hours?

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17” in 24 hours

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Over 17" recorded near Fannett, TX. This area cannot catch a break. Some homes flooded for the 3rd time since 2017. Fannett was not the only area to

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This was on May 17 of this year.

Flying down there on Wednesday and looks like I'm flying into whatever remnants head over Baton Rouge

damn. i stand corrected.