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2
Posted on 7/27/20 at 6:27 pm to rds dc
Posted on 7/27/20 at 6:37 pm to rds dc
quote:
Tropical Tidbits with an update on 92L - LINK
really good explanation of why the storm hasn't developed yet and why it may struggle to develop at all
Posted on 7/27/20 at 8:59 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
The size of 92L is elite.
Posted on 7/27/20 at 9:13 pm to Duke
quote:
The size of 92L is elite.
Yea, that was one of the 1st things that struck me a few days ago. The SW edge of the wave axis is starting to really get going with some deep convection but the size comes into play here. It is difficult for a system this size to tighten up when the wave axis is tilted to the east and convection is on the SW end, it would need WPAC open spaces to complete the process. However, you never know
Posted on 7/27/20 at 9:41 pm to rds dc
Time to remove the sticky
This post was edited on 7/27/20 at 9:56 pm
Posted on 7/28/20 at 4:48 am to rds dc
The NHC continues to indicate very high chances for development but ‘develop’ could just mean weak sheared TD. It’s very underwhelming so far and it’s not looking like it will get its act together any time soon.
Posted on 7/28/20 at 8:42 am to TDsngumbo
Animated models out this morning show either minimal breaking up over Cuba (Euro and GFS) or Bahamas and strengthening along the East Coast
Posted on 7/28/20 at 8:58 am to The Boat
quote:
How long has Jeff Morrow been back at the weather channel? I guess the weather channel is doing what ESPN figured out which is their new anchors all suck and they’re bringing back old school glory days anchors to try to increase viewership.
Figured they realized no need to go with new when all the viewers are the same.
Posted on 7/28/20 at 9:13 am to rds dc
Can we build a big wall along the West African border?
Maybe it'll just stop these developing waves.
Maybe it'll just stop these developing waves.
Posted on 7/28/20 at 9:14 am to ShootingsBricks4Life
Any update on the 'news' story from last week or so about the dust and dirt in the atmosphere from Africa moving westward .....tamping down on tropical storm development?
Posted on 7/28/20 at 9:51 am to real turf fan
Looks like NHC will soon deem 92L to be Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine and will start issuing advisories for it.
Posted on 7/28/20 at 10:11 am to TDsngumbo
I wonder if all of the weather buoys and terrestrial stations record less than predicted just like that gale in the Western Gulf did
This post was edited on 7/28/20 at 10:12 am
Posted on 7/28/20 at 10:14 am to CitizenK
quote:
CitizenK
Here is the address for the National Hurricane Center. Why don't you drive down there, knock on the door, and tell them they don't know what they're talking about despite the fact that they have far more education and experience than you do?
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, FL, 33165
Posted on 7/28/20 at 10:15 am to Roll Tide Ravens
We now have PTC Nine
From the NHC discussion:
From the NHC discussion:
quote:
It cannot be stressed enough that since the system is still in the formative stage, greater than average uncertainty exists regarding both the short-term and longer-term track and intensity forecasts. A subtropical ridge that extends westward from the central Atlantic is expected to be the dominant steering mechanism over the next several days, and the flow around this ridge should steer the low pressure area generally west-northwestward. However, the details in the track forecast could change depending on exactly where within elongated circulation the center forms. Regardless of the exact track, the system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to much of the Lesser Antilles, and tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico within the next 24-48 hours. After that time, a general west-northwestward heading should continue but as mentioned before, uncertainty exists as to how close the system tracks to Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. It should be noted that a stronger cyclone is likely to favor a more northern track, while a weaker system is likely to remain more equatorward. Users should remember that the long-term average NHC track forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are 140 and 175 n mi, respectively.
Given the current structure of the system, only gradual strengthening is predicted during the next day or two, however the system is expected to become a tropical storm when it is near the Leeward Islands on Wednesday. After 48 hours, possible land interaction with the Greater Antilles, and increasing south to southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough could temper further
strengthening. The global models generally weaken the system due to these negative factors and the NHC forecast calls for little change in strength at the longer range. Interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both track and intensity are likely.
This post was edited on 7/28/20 at 10:21 am
Posted on 7/28/20 at 10:17 am to Roll Tide Ravens
This thing is hauling arse ......
Posted on 7/28/20 at 10:20 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Look at that cone. That's a beauty.
Tight.
Tight.
Posted on 7/28/20 at 10:24 am to Roll Tide Ravens
I remember Katrina was supposed to take this track
Posted on 7/28/20 at 10:29 am to CitizenK
quote:
Animated models out this morning show either minimal breaking up over Cuba (Euro and GFS) or Bahamas and strengthening along the East Coast
That would be nice, but the models didn’t really do well with Hanna initially. In fact several of these storms have “fooled” them. Gonzalo did too.
Posted on 7/28/20 at 10:29 am to rds dc
Projecting 5 days out? Low confidence.
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