re: Tropical Storm Isaias - O Canada!

Currently 53 at the ranch in J Hole old sport

Just got a fire going

Sadly the Covid has made it difficult to overnight chocolate from Switzerland

I told him Hershey’s would be quaint. Nice to eat what the proletariat eat on occasion.

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I'll say this, the models have become less comforting as the chances of a recurve seem to be decreasing for the time being.

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The 500mb pattern currently being depicted by the models as the system moves towards Florida/Gulf is absolutely hostile to development.



Shear around the base of that trough can't be fought off. A system that is really firing convection can thin and fracture PV streamers (PV streamers shear systems, typically in the MDR and up towards the Caribbean) but that trough will win out.

The image above is 120hr EPS and, typically, there isn't a lot of room for change at this range. However, a couple of 18z EPS members do show a strengthening system moving into the Gulf. The only way that happens is if something funky happens with the trough that models are currently showing over the Central US.




Unless there is a big change with the trough in the Central US, we will see the system sheared out as it approaches Florida or the Gulf. The 18z experimental HWRF shows this well as convection gets sheared off as the exposed LLC moves into Florida.

Come on Hispaniola, bust this a-hole up!

We’re in Apalachicola (St George Island) next week:/

I’m not even remotely qualified to make this statement but I feel that we’re gonna send an upward trend in predicted intensity and more of a western/Gulf track if it can even get going.

definitely not a “nothingburger”

That thing says frick Florida.

There seems to be less and and less reason for concern for this system. Very hostile conditions ahead of it and it is not organizing at all. The islands will get lots of rain however..

All I know is surf is up this weekend in Florida

All lives matter not just fish lives

Still not organized enough to be called a tropical storm. It's been trying like hell for a couple of days. It's like a chihuahua trying to hump a a great dane thus far