re: Tropical Storm Isaias - O Canada!

quote:

---

CitizenK

---

I haven't followed you much at all throughout this thread but I keep seeing people call you out for stuff. Honestly, I don't know if it's been warranted or not.

But the general consensus I've been able to obtain is that you feel like the NHC jumped the gun in calling Hannah a hurricane. I am certainly not educated enough to agree or disagree with that. All I can say is that you are NOT smarter than the NHC. The NHC is the real deal and they are correct way more than your average local meteorologist and about 99.9% more than the best OTer. If you're trying to insinuate that the NHC didn't know what they were doing with Hannah, I'd suggest you stop talking and do a lot more lurking in this thread so you can save whatever face you have left. Weather is a huge hobby of mine but I'm no expert. I mostly lurk in these threads with the exception of a few sarcastic jokes here and there and maybe a couple serious posts unless something is threatening Louisiana. Then and only then do I pay much more attention and actually try to contribute serious posts. Maybe you should do the same in these threads unless you have real, substantive info to contribute.

quote:

---

remember Katrina was supposed to take this track

---

There it is

quote:

---

Katrina comparison. Everybody drink

---

Except it’s not close to the Katrina track.

quote:

---

Don’t even engage comments like that. Most who say things like that don’t know what they’re talking about.

1. The track isn’t even close to Katrina’s track.
2. A storm’s track has almost nothing to do with the severity of the system. A depression could take the exact same track as Katrina/Camille/Andrew/Michael and still be a depression.

---

Some here take these storms seriously, do a little research, and put forward provocative posts. I appreciate that. Too many goofballs jump in ruining the thread. It’s hard to know who is serious and who isn’t sometimes.

But you are correct, track has nothing to do with intensity and it takes way more than hot water to form a hurricane. This storm has a lot to overcome to present a big threat to anyone. Let’s see what it does. It may just be moistening things up for the August wave train.

There looks to be some storm brewing behind PTC9 out in the Atlantic.

Is that a viable tropical threat?

NHC seems to think not for next 5 days

quote:

---

The people on the Weather Channel are going crazy over this so called storm.... PANIC MODE..............

---

As it dawns on me that I haven't seen a single second of Weather (Panic) Channel coverage in years.

I don't need politics and agendas mixed in with my forecast.

Recon was unable to close off a rotation and just found a sharp wave axis. A bit more convection is firing this afternoon and that might be able to help close off a LLC before it runs into the Islands.

I'll say this, the models have become less comforting as the chances of a recurve seem to be decreasing for the time being.



Euro ensemble (black line is the mean)



GFS ensemble



Of course, with the thing not yet organized into an actual tropical cyclone, things are certainly subject to major change.

that track gonna have to be adjusted