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re: TORNADO!!! Pine Belt Tornado preliminary rating of EF-4 with 1 fatality

Posted on 4/18/20 at 4:35 pm to
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51714 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 4:35 pm to
For the northern parts of MS and AL, this is all going to depend on how far the warm front can push northward. There should be a pretty sharp cutoff between a very ripe, unstable airmass that will support severe weather, and a stable airmass where any storms will likely remain elevated and below severe limits. This is the surface based CAPE off of the 18z 3k NAM, showing where the unstable air could be tomorrow afternoon:

This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 4:42 pm
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51714 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 4:41 pm to
quote:

Hatch and bullseye pretty much over the same area that got their homes plowed.

Mother Nature can be cruel sometimes.

Yeah, that's the rough part of this particular event. Hopefully we don't see a repeat.
Posted by Lynyrd
Under the Tilt-a-Whirl
Member since Jun 2010
13337 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 6:14 pm to
quote:

an upgrade to "moderate" risk for severe weather from central/northeast Louisiana

We had 8 tornadoes (confirmed during this week) in NELA last week. Not this again.
This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 6:16 pm
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66950 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 6:20 pm to
The only redeeming thing about a round of tornadoes, is that the destruction is typically only mile or so wide. Thus, you could have one miss you by just a little, and you wouldn't hardly have a leaf fall out of a tree in your yard. It's not like hurricanes which can create widespread damage over a much larger area.
But, speaking from experience, a tornado still isn't anything you want to go through. Ever.
Posted by Lynyrd
Under the Tilt-a-Whirl
Member since Jun 2010
13337 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 6:26 pm to
quote:

It's not like hurricanes which can create widespread damage over a much larger area.

I understand that. It's just the randomness of them. At least it's not overnight and I feel for those this will affect tomorrow night.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21527 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 6:28 pm to
quote:

quote:
I guess it goes back to when there were just slight, moderate and high categories. Moderate truly was in the middle.

I think slight should just be called "standard" because it is pretty much the baseline risk (even though marginal is below it).


It should be Limited, Low, Moderate, High, Extreme.


Or - Alive, Flu, COVID19, Certain Death
Posted by Clark14
Earth
Member since Dec 2014
27162 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 6:43 pm to
That moderate risk we had last Sunday did a number on us over here.Some parts of counties west of us still don't have power.

But we were luckier than the states west of us who got the tornadoes.

I take these forecasts seriously these days.They are getting way better at them.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147126 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 7:24 pm to
hail today near Prairieville

quote:

NWS New Orleans @NWSNewOrleans
Pretty cool picture of slightly larger than quarter size hail near Prairieville. Photo taken by Sarah Anne Clark. #LAwx


Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147126 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 7:26 pm to
NWS Jackson's thoughts on the flood potential from tomorrow's events...

quote:

NWS Jackson MS @NWSJacksonMS
The heaviest amounts will likely fall across portions of NE Louisiana and central portions of Mississippi between the US Highway 82 and Highway 84 corridors where 3 to 5 inches of rain could fall within a short period of time.
Posted by t00f
Not where you think I am
Member since Jul 2016
102119 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 7:32 pm to
Nola will get a slight wind and brief showers again. Run for the hills.
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61723 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 7:35 pm to
Don’t be that guy
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12620 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 7:43 pm to
Picked up 2 inches of rainfall here at MSY today (Saturday).
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147126 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 7:44 pm to
severe thunderstorm warning in east Texas

and NWS Shreveport wants you reporting your weather to them

quote:

NWS Shreveport @NWSShreveport
If you are in Cherokee County #txwx and getting hail, please report location/time/size relative to a coin! Thank you!


Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147126 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 8:03 pm to
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147126 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 8:08 pm to
Posted by BregmansWheelbarrow
Member since Mar 2020
3262 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 8:10 pm to
Just watched a severe weather briefing from one of the meteorologists in lake Charles. He talked about all the possibilities and where the greatest threats are...but then I watched weather channel forecast and for East Texas and southwest Louisiana, it looks like nothing again. And those are some of the areas forecast to be hardest hit.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147126 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 8:14 pm to
east Texas north of Nacogdoches is lighting up with severe thunderstorm warnings
Posted by AutoYes_Clown
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2012
5365 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 8:24 pm to
Anyone else see this rotation headed towards Kaplan / Abbeville?

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21527 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 8:30 pm to
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147126 posts
Posted on 4/18/20 at 8:38 pm to
that damn near looks like a tropical storm that just didn't have enough time to organize before deciding to just hug the coast
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