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re: There has to be a correction in the housing and vehicle market at some point, right?

Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:24 am to
Posted by NorCali
Member since Feb 2015
1735 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:24 am to
As far as vehicles that are gasoline only, not likely. The no more gasoline engines mandate is going to prevent investment in new production and the production that was lost from Covid shutdowns and supply issues will never be replaced but demand is still strong and Used market is still strong. There are starting to be some dealer incentives showing up, but still going to pay close to sticker. Was looking at a truck yesterday and financing is 8.99% and these are still moving. I have a 2005 and have decided that now until end of year is my best time to buy
Posted by skullhawk
My house
Member since Nov 2007
27859 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:26 am to
Something may be happening in the vehicle market. I've gotten three calls over the past two weeks from salesmen I've dealt with over the years asking me to come in to look at new inventory.

Posted by Suntiger
STG or BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
36224 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:29 am to
quote:

They want to systemically make it really difficult to purchase vehicles and homes going forward.


Serious question: Who is “They”?
Posted by H2O Tiger
Delta Sky Club
Member since May 2021
7954 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:32 am to
I think there will be a soft correction. Unless we have a mortgage crisis like we did in 08-09, I don't see people who can still afford their houses selling at a loss. They will probably hang on to them and postpone moving/upgrading until they can at least get what they paid for it.

My neighborhood in South Austin has 6-7 houses on the market right now when we used to only have 1-2, they aren't selling though because owners don't want to drop the prices.

Vehicles and to an even greater extent, recreational toys are gonna get decimated first. The boating pages I'm on have people trying to sell at the inflated prices they paid during covid and nothing is moving. Wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of people upside down on those $200k wake boats.
Posted by BabyTac
Austin, TX
Member since Jun 2008
16674 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:35 am to
Vehicles maybe. I’m waiting for that one.

Houses, prob not. They’ll stagnate, but hold their value for the most part. Just a couple of years ago people were getting 2.5-3% rates. They tend to be a bullet proof investment.
This post was edited on 7/11/23 at 8:40 am
Posted by StringedInstruments
Member since Oct 2013
20907 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:38 am to
quote:

finally broke and bought a 4 year old used Corolla with 38,000 miles for $18,000.


What’s sad is that I look at that as a good deal nowadays.

I tried the wait game and ended up with a 2019 Honda Civic with 6k miles for $23k. That was August 2022.
Posted by CatfishJohn
Member since Jun 2020
20326 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:39 am to
I think 5-7 years for housing and 1-2 years for vehicles. Housing takes longer to correct.

Student loans coming online again alone will cause vehicle market to flip dramatically, which is pitiful.
Posted by PeteRose
Hall of Fame
Member since Aug 2014
18170 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:40 am to
quote:

Dude, just work harder and it'll happen for you. It takes grit and determination.


The typical try harder speech from the OT.
Posted by Zaqwert
Member since Jun 2023
109 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:52 am to
quote:

What we need to do is prevent cash rich institutional investors and hedge funds from sweeping in to buy it all as part of a policy to turn the American middle class into perpetual renters and corporate sharecroppers.


You'll own nothing and be happy!

The WEF vision is basically Mr. Potter's .
Posted by The Eric
Member since Sep 2008
24410 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:55 am to
as for vehicles, if you finance with the dealership you can find a decent interest rate.... but the prices are astronomical. My 2016 F150 would have cost me like 20k more than it did then
Posted by H2O Tiger
Delta Sky Club
Member since May 2021
7954 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:57 am to
Yep, automakers are starting to offer special finance rates to move new cars.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
41104 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 8:58 am to
quote:

There has to be a correction in the housing . . . market at some point, right?


There has to be?

Nah. Nothing has to happen. You sound entitled.
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61723 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:03 am to
quote:

You'll own nothing and be happy!




It seems like the problem is too many people own too much, which has helped cause inflation.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131597 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:06 am to
Ive noticed car lots are more full and they are starting to advertise $5000 off half ton trucks

Not the $10000 off you were getting 5 years ago but dropping
This post was edited on 7/11/23 at 9:06 am
Posted by mule74
Watersound Beach
Member since Nov 2004
12861 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:13 am to
Numbers would suggest that it’s already starting. Vehicle prices are falling most since 2020. As someone mentioned above, there seems to be a bubble in AirB&B rentals. Travel is slowing as savings dry up.

There are factors that will continue to prop up housing prices, but the falls are going to come … slowly.

Also, the biggest drops are occurring in the West. Many people are resettling to the Sun Belt. Places like SC, GA, TN, and FL may not see any meaningful price decreases.
Posted by Rize
Spring Texas
Member since Sep 2011
19386 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:13 am to
quote:

Don't expect it for housing. People refied to 2-3% mortgages and aren't selling those houses for a long time. People aren't selling a 3% mortgage to go to a 7% mortgage. There's not enough inventory of new houses and won't be for years. High borrowing rates and higher costs of construction will keep things steady at this pace. Imho


I will be. Going from 2.6% to somewhere in the 7% range.

fricking makes my heart hurt thinking about that stupid shite.
Posted by CatfishJohn
Member since Jun 2020
20326 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:16 am to
quote:

Don't expect it for housing. People refied to 2-3% mortgages and aren't selling those houses for a long time. People aren't selling a 3% mortgage to go to a 7% mortgage.

There's not enough inventory of new houses and won't be for years. High borrowing rates and higher costs of construction will keep things steady at this pace. Imho



This is true and why I think we won't see a housing correction for 5-7 years.

Boomers dying, interest rates normalizing, AirBnb collapsing, student loans coming back online, etc. All things mentioned in this thread, but it will take some time.

ETA:

And we desperately need legislation in state and local governments restricting corporate entities from owning too many single family homes. They are killing the American dream.
This post was edited on 7/11/23 at 9:17 am
Posted by The Eric
Member since Sep 2008
24410 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:19 am to
quote:

Ive noticed car lots are more full and they are starting to advertise $5000 off half ton trucks

Not the $10000 off you were getting 5 years ago but dropping



2016: Fully Loaded F150 50-60k with incentives and the ability to talk down to 38-45k


2023: Fully Loaded F150 70-85k with incentives and no ability to talk down gets the price to 65k???


Thats ridiculous. No reason a half ton truck should be 65k
Posted by sidewalkside
rent free in yo head
Member since Sep 2021
4609 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:20 am to
Right??? who is "THEY" and what is their big secret plan? It's amazing how many people want to blame the boogey man for their own bad decisions and why they can't achieve some aspirational goal.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131597 posts
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:22 am to
quote:

No reason a half ton truck should be 65k


The reason is that people will pay it

Your average baw only cares about the monthly note
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