re: Storm Watch- Gulf- Tropical Depression- Northward Miss. Valley

They must expect the storm to race to the Northern gulf coast. Thats an incredible distance in 24hrs

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The BOC is known for quick spin ups and conditions are somewhat favorable in the far southern portion of the BOC. The models are bringing the storm back SW into Mexico over the next few days and that area can quickly disrupt systems. However, if the storm stays out over the BOC before making the turn north than things could really change - see the 12z ICON. It gets really tricky as the outflow from a stronger system might be able to disrupt the upper level trough but a weaker system probably gets sheared by the upper levels as it moves north.

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Models have backed off the SW movement somewhat and are now favoring more of a southward drift. Not much will happen over the next couple of days as the storm drifts southward with land interaction playing a big role in what happens later in the week.

EPS and GEFS in pretty good agreement of a slow southward drift in the short range.





Once the storm starts lifting north there will be two troughs to watch with each influencing track. The first one will be exiting the NE as the systems starts going north and that will pull it N/NE and then a second stronger trough will move into the NW and start pulling the system NW or even W. We are still far enough out in time that the timing of those troughs and their overall influence on track is still somewhat uncertain.

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I went with cheddar on mine b/c I'm American

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Cheddar is a British cheese.

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you peasant

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officially Cristobal

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119
WTNT63 KNHC 021626 CCB
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1115 AM CDT Jun 02 2020

Corrected storm ID in header

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Three has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Cristobal. The maximum winds are estimated to
be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1115 AM CDT...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 92.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Oh. Cool.

And every model I’ve seen has it getting out of dodge really quickly once it does make landfall

The official forecast is to reach 65mph in the central gulf so hurricane strength cannot be ruled out.

This bares some watching. ICON model showing CAT2 in Abbeville. The model runs tomorrow morning should be more accurate, as it will include the Hurricane Hunter data and the measurement of the surrounding environment.