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Started By
Message
re: Storm Watch- Gulf- Tropical Depression- Northward Miss. Valley
Posted on 6/1/20 at 7:58 pm to deuce985
Posted on 6/1/20 at 7:58 pm to deuce985
Tropical Tidbits Monday Evening Update
Levi always does a good job on this stuff. He is saying the strength of the storm come the weekend depends on how far it dips south the next two days. If it stays over water and the system stays in tact it obviously will be stronger. If it makes landfall it will likely dissipate but something will reimerge in the central gulf later this week. This is a complicated forecast so keep an eye out.
Levi always does a good job on this stuff. He is saying the strength of the storm come the weekend depends on how far it dips south the next two days. If it stays over water and the system stays in tact it obviously will be stronger. If it makes landfall it will likely dissipate but something will reimerge in the central gulf later this week. This is a complicated forecast so keep an eye out.
1
Posted on 6/1/20 at 8:22 pm to Zephyrius
Looks like 2 systems to watch down off Campeche coast.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 7:21 am to SlidellCajun
Any updates?
Posted on 6/2/20 at 7:38 am to lovethetigers7
Still some pretty big question marks until it starts moving near the weekend.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 7:44 am to catholictigerfan
Concerning that Euro has this not going much inland in Mexico and quite stronger than GFS when it makes landfall in the US
Posted on 6/2/20 at 7:47 am to lovethetigers7
As the other poster said, the forecast remains one of low confidence right now but the EURO has it going into the LA/TX border as a cat 1. ICON has it going into Galveston as a cat 1/2. GFS has it going into Terrebonne/Vermilion Bay as a depression or weak tropical storm. Other, more minor models have it going into Lake Ponchartrain as a depression or weak tropical storm.
It all depends heavily on how fast the system begins moving northward and how that northward movement coincides with a high pressure ridge to the north and an upper level low in the southern gulf at that time. If it moves faster to the north, SELA would see the center of a weak, sheared system. If it moves slower, Texas is likely to see a cat 1 hurricane.
It all depends heavily on how fast the system begins moving northward and how that northward movement coincides with a high pressure ridge to the north and an upper level low in the southern gulf at that time. If it moves faster to the north, SELA would see the center of a weak, sheared system. If it moves slower, Texas is likely to see a cat 1 hurricane.
This post was edited on 6/2/20 at 7:50 am
Posted on 6/2/20 at 7:52 am to lovethetigers7
Bastardi (the master of hurricane forecasters) has called it minimal if it hits the US, either Texas or Eastern Gulf Coast but that was on Saturday.
There is some wind shear from mountains but NHC says they really don't have actual data on any of that, none is ever available in that area.
We aren't going to see any weather here until at least next week if it does develop and head this way.
This is from a system that was on the Pacific side dissipated to almost nothing then began reforming as it meandered sort of northward, not two systems. The early one that amateurs were agog about ain't there no more.
There is some wind shear from mountains but NHC says they really don't have actual data on any of that, none is ever available in that area.
We aren't going to see any weather here until at least next week if it does develop and head this way.
This is from a system that was on the Pacific side dissipated to almost nothing then began reforming as it meandered sort of northward, not two systems. The early one that amateurs were agog about ain't there no more.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 7:52 am to TDsngumbo
Why do you keep touting the Icon?
Its way worse than the CMC and way way worse than the UK model
Its way worse than the CMC and way way worse than the UK model
Posted on 6/2/20 at 8:00 am to Midtiger farm
Because right now it’s an outlier, being the strongest & most bullish model. I use it for comparison but also because it’s not far off from what the most reliable model, the EURO, has been showing and it was almost on the money with Barry’s landfall location last year days in advance.
This post was edited on 6/2/20 at 8:01 am
Posted on 6/2/20 at 8:03 am to Zephyrius
ICON
GFS
GFS
Posted on 6/2/20 at 8:04 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
t’s not far off from what the most reliable model, the EURO, has been showing and it was almost on the money with Barry’s landfall location last year days in advance.
It's still in the central gulf when the Euro is about to make landfall in its 06z run
And it got every other storm last year and the years before way wrong. So it getting lucky one time doesn't make it good
I look at it sometimes just to get an idea on regular weather like front timing and it is horrible
This post was edited on 6/2/20 at 8:07 am
Posted on 6/2/20 at 8:28 am to TDsngumbo
I was watching something last night. Down there in Mexico it’s like a vortex of lows. The storm we are looking at right now might not even be the same one that goes back into the gulf.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 8:30 am to Midtiger farm
I mostly use weather.us.
EURO Monday at 1:00am:
ICON Monday at 1:00am:
EURO Monday at 1:00am:
ICON Monday at 1:00am:
Posted on 6/2/20 at 8:33 am to paperwasp
quote:
James Spann
@spann
The sun is up over Tropical Depression 3 in the Bay of Campeche. Should become Tropical Storm Cristobal later today.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 9:10 am to paperwasp
quote:
The sun is up over Tropical Depression 3 in the Bay of Campeche. Should become Tropical Storm Cristobal later today.
quote:
Cristobal
Sounds like an a-hole
Posted on 6/2/20 at 9:19 am to paperwasp
Its starting to get hype on local news so it will probably fizzle out. 
Posted on 6/2/20 at 9:21 am to TDsngumbo
that's a huge jump in a day from what weather.gov shows for placement 1am Sunday to 1am Monday on these models - that would make that storm screaming across the gulf. if it moves that fast, it wont have much time to strengthen.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 9:25 am to paperwasp
Thankfully they have this going into Lake Charles.
These models are NEVER right a week out.
These models are NEVER right a week out.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 10:00 am to Prominentwon
Recon in, finding TS winds.
We have Cristobal.
We have Cristobal.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 10:04 am to Zephyrius
Are the pumps in Nola working? At least there is great leadership with LaToya in charge.
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