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Started By
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1
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:31 pm to LSUJuice
I love checking the hurricane thread, having no idea what anything means, and not wanting to ask because it would go towards a bingo 
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:32 pm to rds dc
18z GFS on the right hand side of the 18z GEFS spread and HMON & HWRF almost right down the middle.
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:32 pm to Lsuhoohoo
Houston to mobile fricked simultaneously.
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:33 pm to lsusteve1
quote:
Some short term upper level changes on the GFS form 12z to 18z. The 18z run might be having some issues based on how the GFS handles convection (thunderstorms). Essentially, this run might have convection too far NE & too intense. This results in the LLC consolidating very far NE and actually crossing over Western Cuba. The 18z GFS is known as the Happy Hour GFS for a reason but it could also be right
quote:
Dumb it down for the special folk
So a global model like the GFS makes some assumptions about vertical motion. The GFS's can have convection run a little hot. It's part of why it spins up a lot of phantom tropical systems. So if it's running the convection too hot to the NE, it organizes the storm too far NE and too quickly.
Where it forms and how fast it organizes are the big early questions and it's worth considering the GFS has the answer wrong because of how it deals with convection.
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:33 pm to Duke
I bet we go at least 50 pages in this thread.
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:33 pm to Ingeniero
Just know a poster here told us all that it'll be ok because the Yucatan has towering mountains that will shear it down
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:34 pm to Spasweezy
quote:
I bet we go at least 50 pages in this thread.
At this rate we’ll be 100+ pages before a hurricane even forms
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:35 pm to Ingeniero
quote:
I love checking the hurricane thread, having no idea what anything means, and not wanting to ask because it would go towards a bingo
and just look at the pictures
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:35 pm to Turftoe
I believe this is the correct wind speed 10 meters off the ground. Correct?
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:36 pm to Spasweezy
That's a bold prediction on page 48 with 5 days to go. It'll be close
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:37 pm to Konkey Dong
What’s the timeline for this thing?
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:41 pm to shaquilleoatmeal
frick it, I’m just gonna move my flight to vegas for the LSU UCLA game to this Friday. I’m not risking any of this shite.
This post was edited on 8/25/21 at 7:42 pm
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:45 pm to deltaland
quote:
Only positive to this run is the eye wall splits LC and Lafayette so neither major city gets the worst parts
How dare you. Mamou is a treasure.
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:46 pm to shaquilleoatmeal
Monday/Tuesday
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:48 pm to shaquilleoatmeal
We'll know more in 120 hours
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:49 pm to Duke
quote:
The GFS's can have convection run a little hot.
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:50 pm to trussthetruzz
quote:
At this rate we’ll be 100+ pages before a hurricane even forms
Is this the longest thread in TD history?
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:51 pm to rds dc
So black line?
Posted on 8/25/21 at 7:52 pm to Ed Osteen
Has anyone heard an update from Honkus yet?
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