re: Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...

Because the avg age on that form is way older than this one

That guy whose name starts with a g freaks out everyday

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The more of the Yucatán it traverses, the more mountains it will encounter.

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This is a goddamn gem here

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The more of the Yucatán it traverses, the more mountains it will encounter.


This is a goddamn gem here

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Those Mayan pyramids gonna do a number on it.

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Those Mayan pyramids gonna do a number on it.

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ya sure... 10 hrs later its a cat 3.50

GFS now has it at 935MB at landfall a major cat 4 over landing dead middle Louisiana

Graphic ?

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GFS now has it at 935MB at landfall a major cat 4 over landing dead middle Louisiana

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Went from Mexico yesterday to nearing a Morgan City landfall today

Tomorrow Miss/Bama will be puckering their asses with this trend

The WPC Extended Outlook just updated...

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 28 2021 - 12Z Wed Sep 01 2021

...Upper Midwest heavy rain threat likely to extend through
Saturday...

...Heavy rain threat for parts of the central/western Gulf Coast
early next week with possible tropical development...

...Overview...

A strong shortwave trough pushing through the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest and its associated surface front will continue the
heavy rainfall threat across portions of the Upper Midwest through
Saturday. An upstream trough with embedded upper low should reach
western Canada and the Northwest U.S. by next Monday-Wednesday,
with a leading frontal system pushing into the Northwest and
eventually the northern Plains. Ahead of these systems, a front
settling over the Mid-Atlantic by the weekend may focus some rain
and thunderstorms. Attention also turns to the southern U.S. where
upper ridging prevails over the weekend then subsides some as a
tropical wave emerges into the western Gulf. A possible tropical
system could bring a host of weather hazards to the
western/central Gulf Coast early next week but confidence in
specifics in lower than average at this time.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

The latest deterministic and ensemble guidance showed average to
above average agreement with respect to the large scale pattern,
particularly with the northern stream energies, over the course of
the medium range period. Initial shortwave troughing will progress
through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend then
head toward the Hudson Bay region. Its associated surface front,
initially stalled over the Midwest giving way to a heavy rainfall
threat, will gradually move across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Upstream shortwave troughing will then drop in across the
Northwest and Northern Plains where some of the typical model
biases were noted. But a consensus approach was favored and this
trended well from continuity.

There is considerable and full range of model spread with the
potential tropical system that may develop over the Caribbean. The
latest guidance continues on a rightward/northeast shift,
particularly as the system crosses or approaches the Yucatan
Peninsula into the central/western Gulf. The CMC was a faster
solution while the UKMET was on the slower side of the spread in
regards to timing. The GFS and ECMWF were fairly close and near
the consensus, so a blend of the two (with some favoring toward
continuity) was favored for this cycle. Consult the National
Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlooks for the latest
information on this development potential over the coming days.