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Started By
Message
re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:41 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:41 pm to GEAUXmedic
So it looks like we ARE Dying again.
My emotions are crazy!!!
My emotions are crazy!!!
0
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:42 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
However, history reminds me that Camille was a weak wave until it reached western Cuba and we all know what happened back in 1969. Too young? Look it up as Camille strengthened into a Cat. 5 at landfall along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. No I’m not saying this will be another Camille. What I am saying is 1) we are now in the heart of hurricane season, 2) Water temperatures in the Gulf are 85-90, 3) Upper wind shear over the SOUTHERN GULF is less, 4) the rotation around the blocking high will bring any system towards the upper Texas/western Louisiana coast IF something forms over the SOUTHERN GULF Sunday-Tuesday.
The models still struggle with upper level features and 99L could just as easily end up under the anitcyclone over the Gulf as getting sheared out. There are multiple ULLs spinning around and the models always struggle with them. If it finds a spot under that anticyclone then all bets are off. The Gulf will be very supportive of development next week with the only question being shear.
The blue highlights areas of rising air and that is favorable for convection:
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:44 pm to rds dc
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/8/21 at 11:51 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:48 pm to slackster
quote:
Isaac
That would be a very bad storm currently. Stalling out and pulling massive moisture from the gulf.
An Isaac style storm could actually do more damage than an andrew.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:50 pm to graychef
In short the blue areas in the Gulf are favorable for thunderstorm development, what we have to watch once this mess gets in the gulf are upper level lows they can shear a system to death or if far away can ventilate the storm.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:01 pm to medtiger
quote:
If the LLC is going to wash up on Cuba tonight, then I assume these model runs are fairly useless as of now? There may or may not be an entirely new LLC tomorrow at which point, the models would then have to run based on that new location, correct?
Not as bad as in the past. The Euro doesn't use vortex relocation and just rolls with the initial fields and data assimilation. The GFS will relocate the vortex before data assimilation based on the NHC position but I'm not sure that they do that for invest. The HWRF uses a different process but will use a bogus vortex from the GFS if the HWRF is initialized with a weaker vortex than reality.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 11:31 pm
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:04 pm to rds dc
looking like the GFS is gonna go more west
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:06 pm to lsuman25
quote:
looking like the GFS is gonna go more west
I forgot it was even running, too much trail running this evening
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:07 pm to rds dc
LOL you do a great job on here so i can't complain
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:09 pm to lsuman25
Much more organized system through the first 96 hrs than on past runs.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:12 pm to rds dc
126 hours in the central gulf still not overly strong but looks like it is organizing
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:12 pm to rds dc
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 11:16 pm
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:15 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
GEAUXmedic
Huge changes on the GFS this run. Lots of extra data was ingested from this afternoons recon:
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:15 pm to rds dc
quote:
Huge changes on the GFS this run. Lots of extra data was ingested from this afternoons recon:
Thanks for that, I was wondering if the data made it in.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:18 pm to rds dc
What does this graph mean?
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:18 pm to GEAUXmedic
150 hours out at the mouth of the Mississippi River
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:20 pm to NOLA Brew Bus
quote:
What does this graph mean?
It is showing dropsonde data added to the different GFS runs. There was a recon mission this afternoon that let out a bunch of drops and the red spike is them being ingested by the 00z GFS run.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:20 pm to NOLA Brew Bus
quote:
What does this graph mean?
I think it means it's got a pulse
Idk either
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:20 pm to GEAUXmedic
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