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Started By
Message
re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:26 pm to WarmBubble
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:26 pm to WarmBubble
"This thing is a middle of the road tropical wave right now. There's a one in three shot that it becomes a depression by Sunday morning, and another 1 in 3 shot between Sunday and next Tuesday".
"There are 2 big ensemble models that take in the current situation and make tiny changes too see a spread of different scenarios..."
"In one of those, 2 out of 50 come within 100 miles of new orleans, in the other, it's 0 out of 20."
"And that's before this thing started to fall apart over the last 6 hours or so..."
Again, from my brother-in-law. Take it FWIW.
"There are 2 big ensemble models that take in the current situation and make tiny changes too see a spread of different scenarios..."
"In one of those, 2 out of 50 come within 100 miles of new orleans, in the other, it's 0 out of 20."
"And that's before this thing started to fall apart over the last 6 hours or so..."
Again, from my brother-in-law. Take it FWIW.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 9:28 pm
0
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:27 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Jeff Masters
Truly one of the best
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:30 pm to rds dc
quote:
Truly one of the best
He's had this blog for 10+ years, and has quite the following. Anyone truly interested in up to the minute developments with this storm should read the comment section to each of his blog posts. It's full of way more geeky info than most want to know.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:34 pm to rds dc
quote:
Truly one of the best
Not as good as WarmBubble's brother.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 9:38 pm
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:43 pm to LakeViewLSU
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:47 pm to LakeViewLSU
If you want to discredit what I post that's fine. I'm not trying to say he's 100% right and "look no further for updates."
But some people, including myself, appreciate simple and straightforward data that's easy to comprehend.
I appreciate everyone's hard work with their own updates. Hopefully tomm this thing is a non-story. Until then, cheers.
But some people, including myself, appreciate simple and straightforward data that's easy to comprehend.
I appreciate everyone's hard work with their own updates. Hopefully tomm this thing is a non-story. Until then, cheers.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:50 pm to LakeViewLSU
As bad as this thing has looked today, only the GFS kills it. The Euro, UK, Canadian, and HWRF all develop it in the Gulf.
12z UK:
12z Canadian:
12z Euro:
Most of them keep it b/w almost nothing and weak until the Gulf. The 18z HWRF entering the Gulf:
The 18z at the end of the run:
If the GFS ends up being right, this will be EPIC. Like Euro Sandy/Joaquin epic.
12z UK:
12z Canadian:
12z Euro:
Most of them keep it b/w almost nothing and weak until the Gulf. The 18z HWRF entering the Gulf:
The 18z at the end of the run:
If the GFS ends up being right, this will be EPIC. Like Euro Sandy/Joaquin epic.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:51 pm to WarmBubble
quote:
If you want to discredit what I post that's fine. I'm not trying to say he's 100% right and "look no further for updates."
But some people, including myself, appreciate simple and straightforward data that's easy to comprehend.
I appreciate everyone's hard work with their own updates. Hopefully tomm this thing is a non-story. Until then, cheers.
Keep the updates coming
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:51 pm to rds dc
Yeah they're all pointing in the same direction.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:54 pm to ByteMe
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:54 pm to WarmBubble
quote:
WarmBubble
Keep em coming baw... greatly appreciated!!
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:55 pm to NYNolaguy1
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:57 pm to WarmBubble
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 9:59 pm
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:15 pm to jlu03
I like how they just say lets frickup new orleans.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:17 pm to LakeViewLSU
The remnant LLC appears that it will wash up on Cuba tonight:
This will still be a westward moving wave in the morning but probably with no low level swirl.
This will still be a westward moving wave in the morning but probably with no low level swirl.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:17 pm to LakeViewLSU
Storms starting to blow up around the circulation in the last hour. Will the shear let them build up is the question.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:21 pm to jlu03
Bob Breck speaks:
Bob Breck on Facebook
Thursday, August 25, 2016
Not Much Happening...
I wish I could say we are “out of the woods”, “out of harm’s way”, “Nothing to worry about”, but I can’t just yet. Here’s what we know tonight. The weak center of this tropical disturbance continues to move west and will move into Cuba on Friday. There are no T-Storms with it and very little surface wind. It remains in a hostile environment and little development is expected for the next 2 days. However, eventually it should emerge over the southern Gulf by Sunday and still could develop under much less upper wind shear. So rather than say nothing to worry about, I’d rather say little to worry about tomorrow and Saturday. The European model has totally missed the forecast so far with the American model doing much better. NHC has lowered the chances for development from 80% yesterday to 60% tonight. I like that trend! However, history reminds me that Camille was a weak wave until it reached western Cuba and we all know what happened back in 1969. Too young? Look it up as Camille strengthened into a Cat. 5 at landfall along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. No I’m not saying this will be another Camille. What I am saying is 1) we are now in the heart of hurricane season, 2) Water temperatures in the Gulf are 85-90, 3) Upper wind shear over the SOUTHERN GULF is less, 4) the rotation around the blocking high will bring any system towards the upper Texas/western Louisiana coast IF something forms over the SOUTHERN GULF Sunday-Tuesday. So we do what we always do…wait & watch for any signs of organization. Stay tuned! But for now, relax. Bob Breck
Bob Breck on Facebook
Thursday, August 25, 2016
Not Much Happening...
I wish I could say we are “out of the woods”, “out of harm’s way”, “Nothing to worry about”, but I can’t just yet. Here’s what we know tonight. The weak center of this tropical disturbance continues to move west and will move into Cuba on Friday. There are no T-Storms with it and very little surface wind. It remains in a hostile environment and little development is expected for the next 2 days. However, eventually it should emerge over the southern Gulf by Sunday and still could develop under much less upper wind shear. So rather than say nothing to worry about, I’d rather say little to worry about tomorrow and Saturday. The European model has totally missed the forecast so far with the American model doing much better. NHC has lowered the chances for development from 80% yesterday to 60% tonight. I like that trend! However, history reminds me that Camille was a weak wave until it reached western Cuba and we all know what happened back in 1969. Too young? Look it up as Camille strengthened into a Cat. 5 at landfall along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. No I’m not saying this will be another Camille. What I am saying is 1) we are now in the heart of hurricane season, 2) Water temperatures in the Gulf are 85-90, 3) Upper wind shear over the SOUTHERN GULF is less, 4) the rotation around the blocking high will bring any system towards the upper Texas/western Louisiana coast IF something forms over the SOUTHERN GULF Sunday-Tuesday. So we do what we always do…wait & watch for any signs of organization. Stay tuned! But for now, relax. Bob Breck
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:24 pm to rds dc
If the LLC is going to wash up on Cuba tonight, then I assume these model runs are fairly useless as of now? There may or may not be an entirely new LLC tomorrow at which point, the models would then have to run based on that new location, correct?
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:24 pm to MSCoastTigerGirl
quote:
They make smart arse comments and post the meme with the white plastic chair blown over or the single branch on the ground.
I've been in this thread since the beginning and I take it a little more serious than most, but those Isaac memes are hilarious. Gotta be able to laugh at the ones that amount to little or nothing.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:25 pm to jlu03
quote:
Storms starting to blow up around the circulation in the last hour. Will the shear let them build up is the question.
Shear shredded the burst from earlier this evening and still looks to be very stout. This is probably lights out for that LLC.
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