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Message
re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:10 pm to graychef
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:10 pm to graychef
quote:
So we're back to nobody knowing what the hell is going on.
Yeah pretty much a bunch of dumbfricks got a hard on over a thunderstorm in the Atlantic which has fizzled to shite before they could cum.
0
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:11 pm to lsu mike
quote:
If it even survives and makes it that far. Chances aren't looking too good.
So AP2 712 with Recoil Proto 110 F4's off the hosel to the west will run it up into LaTour or Belle Terre? Maybe Sandos or Oak Harbaw at a Cat 3?
Is Carter and Beaver Creek safe?
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 8:12 pm
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:11 pm to MSCoastTigerGirl
quote:
Wtf is going on? It seems to be changing every few hours. I know it seems like those of us in South LA are overreacting to some, but a tropical storm, much less a hurricane, is the last thing we need here right now.
That's what models do. The difference between the weather info you get in a thread like this, compared to what you get from the news, is that we watch every run, and every little thing that happens with a storm. That changes by the minute. Models flip flop a lot, especially with storms that don't exist. Extremely small changes, can make a huge difference between models--the butterfly effect. Conversely - when watching the news/weather channel, they package it all up in a nice 5 minute clip, all while having to answer to news directors, and the public who put their head on a pitchfork if they are wrong. They have to toe the line between awareness and preventing panic. Throughout this whole event I've talked to people in tv weather and other services who say one thing publicly, but have different private thoughts. Many still aren't writing this thing off because it's doing what it was predicted to do, and you can't write anything off that will potentially come in the Gulf right now, but if they're to only ones saying the potential of the storm, and nothing happens, their credibility goes down. Even if you post all probabilities, people are only going to focus on the bad part, so if you say "well it has the chance to come in the gulf and become a major hurricane, but it's looking like it most likely won't" guess which part people pay attention to.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 8:14 pm
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:13 pm to graychef
quote:yes but even more importantly this system is just about gone. It's less than poorly organized it's close to not existent anymore. So yes no one knows what is going on but thankfully it may not matter. No one knows what's going on about nothing.??
So we're back to nobody knowing what the hell is going on.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:14 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
The difference between the weather info you get in a thread like this, compared to what you get from the news, is that we watch every run, and every little thing that happens with a storm.
GTFOH
Meteorologist watch every move and their satellite imagery is on their website 24 - 7.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:17 pm to purpleleaf
quote:
Meteorologist watch every move and their satellite imagery is on their website 24 - 7.
But not publicly, you don't get a report on every model run. You don't see their entire thought process, or a breakdown of everything that happens. You see the cleaned up version for public consumption.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:17 pm to purpleleaf
quote:
Meteorologist watch every move and their satellite imagery is on their website 24 - 7.
20 pages...
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:20 pm to MSCoastTigerGirl
quote:
Overreacting
If a storm comes in it fricks shite up around here. Working nights during a hurricane riding back roads cutting fallen trees out of the road, evacuating people to shelters, etc is not fun. Especially when it's a storm like some we have had that lingered for 3 days.
So yea, I stress any time a storm is possible. Not to mention all the other bullshite we've had lately
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:47 pm to purpleleaf
quote:
GTFOH Meteorologist watch every move and their satellite imagery is on their website 24 - 7.
You completely missed the point of his post.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:01 pm to BayouBengals18
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/28/19 at 9:43 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:04 pm to deuce985
quote:
Let me guess: Your bother-in-law looked at one set of models and came to this conclusion? Don't bother posting updates.
No. The terms he used to explain how this storm has progressed is over my head. I was just trying to be help and actually contribute to this thread in a way that could maybe help people feel optimistic.
Like I said, he is on the Autism spectrum. You should probably look up Asperger's. Weather happens to be one of his "hobbies" and he dedicates a good amount of time trying to explain how these things work for guys like us.
So, your guess is wrong. And I will continue to post what he has told me if I believe it can help others and no one else has contributed anything of relevance.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:04 pm to GEAUXmedic
There is reason I read these these threads more than I listen to the weather guys on TV. 
I know it's too early to know anything. I know that predictions cNt be accurate this far out, ND I normally don't pay much attention to them, but right now is a terrible time for a storm to hit LA.
Jay Grimes seems to think this thing is still going to hold together and enter the gulf, if I understood him correctly.
Our streets are lined with the insides of people's homes right now. If a TS or hurricane were to hit here before that is cleaned up, that's a lot of shite blowing around...on top of saturated ground. It's rained here every damn day for as long as I can remember.
Fwiw, I appreciate all that you guys do. I've read every page of this thread. frick the people that have nothing to say other than smart arse comments. It happens every year. They make smart arse comments and post the meme with the white plastic chair blown over or the single branch on the ground.
I know it's too early to know anything. I know that predictions cNt be accurate this far out, ND I normally don't pay much attention to them, but right now is a terrible time for a storm to hit LA.
Jay Grimes seems to think this thing is still going to hold together and enter the gulf, if I understood him correctly.
Our streets are lined with the insides of people's homes right now. If a TS or hurricane were to hit here before that is cleaned up, that's a lot of shite blowing around...on top of saturated ground. It's rained here every damn day for as long as I can remember.
Fwiw, I appreciate all that you guys do. I've read every page of this thread. frick the people that have nothing to say other than smart arse comments. It happens every year. They make smart arse comments and post the meme with the white plastic chair blown over or the single branch on the ground.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:04 pm to USEyourCURDS
There's really no need to worry yet. This situation is something to keep an eye on, but nobody will know where it's going for a couple more days.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:06 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
I agree.
I've read some comments in this thread. I think it's better to be cautious than to wait until the last minute.
I've read some comments in this thread. I think it's better to be cautious than to wait until the last minute.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:07 pm to BayouBengals18
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/28/19 at 9:43 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:09 pm to Scoop
quote:
heard people bring this up but it seems very, very unlikely. To get debris moving winds as far inland as BR and the surrounding areas would require a right side of the eye sniper shot from a cat 4/5. It would have to be so precise in the landfall and path that the odds are astronomical.
My comment wasn't about wind I was responding to her comment on the possible torrential rains for a few days from a tropical system. Another flood would certainly move all of that debris to points unknown. Like I said, it would be a horrible mess.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:14 pm to jlu03
quote:
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
This is the 2nd time they have had to walk back formation chances since this wave came off Africa.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:15 pm to Scoop
Sorry i didnt mean it to be directed at you. Just the whole board in general
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:24 pm to Deaux boi
The only person I consistently watch/listen to is Jeff Masters on weather underground. He has consistently been on the money and updates his blog post at least twice a day.
As of late today he said...
LINK
As of late today he said...
quote:
99L is likely heading toward the Gulf of Mexico
The lack of a well-defined center makes it more difficult for computer models to predict the track and intensify of 99L. If a center does consolidate, it appears likely to move in a general west-northwest direction that would bring it near the southern Florida peninsula late Saturday or Sunday. A slight bend toward the west, as suggested by the ECMWF model, could allow 99L to miss the peninsula entirely, perhaps crossing the Florida Straits. In either case, 99L appears likely to enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the start of next week. Conditions in the eastern Gulf will favor development, and the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF models have been largely consistent in showing 99L intensifying across the Gulf, perhaps well beyond hurricane strength. The GFS is stubbornly in the other camp, continuing to insist that 99L will not develop significantly.
NOAA/RAMMB has this excellent 1-minute resolution loop of 99L. You can really see how an upper level anticyclone centered to the east of 99L is bringing strong southerly upper-level winds to the south of 99L, blowing the tops of the thunderstorms from south to north over Cuba and Hispaniola.
A multi-day animation from the Navy is excellent, too.
We’ll be back with an update by midday Friday.
LINK
Posted on 8/25/16 at 9:25 pm to Deaux boi
Interesting Tweet on the state of things nationally:
Marshall ShepherdVerified account
?@DrShepherd2013
Something called Invest can generate this much attention yet we can't figure out how to elevate attn for big flood systems like Louisiana
Marshall ShepherdVerified account
?@DrShepherd2013
Something called Invest can generate this much attention yet we can't figure out how to elevate attn for big flood systems like Louisiana
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