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Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:16 am to Jack Bauer7
quote:
i'm putting my money on a TX landfall with LA getting some fallout on the bad side of the storm
I'm cool with this as long as I still have electricity and internet to watch the opening weekend of college football.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:16 am to Klark Kent
LA needs no more rain
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:17 am to GEAUXmedic
Nobody knows where this bitch is going just yet.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:17 am to EventHorizon
quote:
Flying out of New Orleans Thursday morning
driving to NOLA on Thursday afternoon
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:18 am to Catman88
quote:
I'm not an oceanographer but I did work at NAVOCEANO as a developer on HYCOM and many FNMOC models. It's been a while and things have changed a good bit but I am fairly certain ocean modeling accuracy for events like this are still greatly compromised without a good initialization point.
Good point, initialization will always be an issue for models. More data than ever is being collected and data assimilation techniques are better than ever but we will never be able to get the initial state of the ocean/atmosphere perfect. So that will always be an issue for models.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:18 am to tigerbutt
This model is fricked. 
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 10:19 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:18 am to LSURussian
ah didnt see the 24th on the other one anyways yeah these models are everywhere
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:19 am to AU_251
quote:What are you talking about? It hasn't rained in Baton Rouge since yesterday!!
LA needs no more rain
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:20 am to dukke v
quote:
..... And NO I am not always wrong....
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:22 am to Duke
quote:
I'm watching the ridge strength and placement and for that little low feature off Texas on Tuesday to get some idea of steering
There is also a small northern stream feature over the top of the ridge that will play a role. Complicated setup.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:23 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
This model is fricked.
It shows the system going from a tropical storm to a Cat 5 hurricane in 36 hours. The Gulf water temp must be near the boiling point. 
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:23 am to dukke v
quote:
And NO I am not always wrong....
Sigh. Wrong again.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:23 am to MightyYat
quote:
Flying out of New Orleans Thursday morning. I hope this doesn't get interesting!
They'll be thousands of us in the same boat.
Flying out as well Thursday morning. Already have a plan to leave Wednesday evening if we are driving. I will get to Green Bay haha!
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:25 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
This model is fricked.
Southeast Louisiana would be wiped off the map if this indeed happens.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:27 am to LSURussian
Idk what the time lapse was, but as far as intensity between coordinates that model is almost identical to Katrina. Katrina intensified into a cat 1 a little closer to the Florida gulf coast and a cat 5 a little further from the Louisiana gulf coast than this one is showing, but yea. As far as distance intervals it looks very similar, and the gulf is hotter than a 3 peckered possum in mating season right now
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 10:30 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:27 am to LSURussian
quote:Wilma did that in 16 hours back in 05
It shows the system going from a tropical storm to a Cat 5 hurricane in 36 hours
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:28 am to LSURussian
quote:
It shows the system going from a tropical storm to a Cat 5 hurricane in 36 hours. The Gulf water temp must be near the boiling point
Not saying it's right but RI is a real thing.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:28 am to LSUTiger23
quote:
Southeast Louisiana would be wiped off the map if this indeed happens.
Even a cat 1 would cause significant damage.
All the debris lining streets will be strewn for miles with projectiles causing more damage.
The ground is so saturated many large oaks would uproot and topple over with a constant pressure of strong winds.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 10:28 am to supernovasky
quote:
A heads up with the map and the forecast cone going around - a lot of times, Oil and Gas companies want well advance warning that these things are coming this way. They'd rather err on the side of caution and thus have a lot more tolerance for wrong forecasts, hence bigger cones, cones established before a storm even forms, etc. TBH when a system does form and a cone comes out, it wouldn't surprise me if it were close to what this company is putting out. Thing is, the purpose of the company is to give WAY advanced, overly cautious warning. They have much higher tolerance for saying something will form and it not forming, than saying nothing will form and something does.
Exactly!
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