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Message
re: Some people don't want to accept the data that shows the Covid impact hasn't been too bad
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:22 am to GetCocky11
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:22 am to GetCocky11
we shut down the entire world and 30k people still died
mitigation worked, is what youre trying to say. playing it off like it's some kind of hoax doesn't make any sense.
mitigation worked, is what youre trying to say. playing it off like it's some kind of hoax doesn't make any sense.
2
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:22 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
this simply was not nearly as bad as the various governments projected it to be and they overreacted bigly
And for some insane reason rather than shifting course or strategy we're doubling down now.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:24 am to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
Do you not agree that 60,000-70,000 is in line with a bad influenza outbreak?
Well the worst flu outbreak in recent US history had an estimated 61k deaths with no mitigation beyond a voluntary vaccine that was ~40% effective. Estimated 61k over 6-7 months.
We're at 36k lab confirmed covid related deaths in 1.5 months WITH extreme measures put in place.
For reference, while not at all an apples to apples situation, the 12k number cited as US H1N1 deaths in 2009 is based on a little over 1000 lab confirmed H1N1 deaths.
I would bet my life savings and next years salary that the estimated number of US covid deaths from the CDC (that won't come out for probably a year or more after this event is over) will be 2x or more the lab confirmed covid positive deaths.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 10:30 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:25 am to RogerTheShrubber
Yeah and it made way too much sense. Of course they had to make a shite show out of this.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:26 am to sanora
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/14/20 at 8:22 pm
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:28 am to SulphursFinest
quote:
I get what you’re saying, but you also have to think that social distancing likely mitigated thousands of cases.
This. It's not that hard to understand.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:29 am to Crazytrain69
quote:
more people will have died from suicide after having their livelihoods destroyed than will have legitimately died from the virus itself.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:30 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Well the worst flu outbreak in recent US history had an estimated 61k deaths with no mitigation beyond a voluntary vaccine that was ~40% effective. Estimated 61k over 6-7 months.
So you agree, 60,000-70,000 is in line with a bad flue outbreak? So the poster wasn't being disingenuous.
quote:
We're at 36k lab confirmed covid related deaths in less than 1.5 months WITH extreme measures put in place.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:31 am to msutiger
Delete.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 10:35 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:33 am to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
So you agree, 60,000-70,000 is in line with a bad flue outbreak? So the poster wasn't being disingenuous.
No. He was being disingenuous when he cited top range figures for 2 estimates, and then mid range figures for 1. He should have used only mid range or only top range.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:36 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
No. He was being disingenuous when he cited top range figures for 2 estimates, and then mid range figures for 1.
You just said 60,000-70,000 was the worst flue outbreak in America...
quote:
Well the worst flu outbreak in recent US history had an estimated 61k deaths
Seems like the top range to me
quote:
He should have used only mid range or only top range.
He did use only top range. He used the top range for a bad flue outbreak in America.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 10:37 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:36 am to Tigersonfire
quote:
Can we be honest about this no matter how “mean” it might sound......if a business or person, barring long term layoff, was broken because of a month shut down. It/they were doomed anyways. We’ve been shut down for a month not six months or a year. This is what I don’t get. Again if people don’t get their jobs back totally understandable.
The ignorance inherent in this is so sweeping I hardly know where to start. It is this kind of thinking that has us in this fix.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:38 am to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
You just said 60,000-70,000 was the worst flue outbreak in America...
Firstly, no I didn't say that 60-70k was the worst flu outbreak in america. That was the worst in recent history. The worst was probably 1918 when every major city shutdown for weeks and months and many shut down again after reopening.
quote:
He did use only top range. He used the top range for a bad flue outbreak in America.
You should learn to read better.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 10:57 am to sanora
quote:
mitigation worked
But at what cost and when will it end?
There are lots of people who want strict mitigation factors to remain in place with no clear goal. Stated goals change, feelings trump logic, politics over all, etc. The numbers will never be zero but plenty of people can’t accept the idea that even one death is justifiable. They blindly accepted lockdown orders but appear ready to fight those same authorities when they want to open things back up.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:00 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Firstly, no I didn't say that 60-70k was the worst flu outbreak in america. That was the worst in recent history. The worst was probably 1918 when every major city shutdown for weeks and months and many shut down again after reopening.
So sorry, I left out the word recently.
So, what would be the top range for recent flu outbreaks he should have use?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:05 am to GetCocky11
150k have died in a span of 4 months, and that is completely excluding China's numbers which are no doubt alot higher than what they reported.
No, this was not the Bubonic Plague, anyone acting like it was were totally off base. But dang near every country worldwide shutdown because of this virus. So why do people act as if the US, the 3rd largest country and quite frankly probably has the most inter-country travel in the world, would have been completely fine if we ignored this and pretended it didnt exist.
Its amazing to me the extremes people jump to. No, thank God this wasnt as bad as predicted. Even with mitigation, this is looking to not be as bad as the original experts predicted. But that doesn't nean we should have never taken it seriously to begin with. In select areas like, Italy, Spain, NY, you can tell how bad this virus could have been. Our health officials have been working hard to kick this thing's arse. If it wasn't for how exponentially far modern medicine has come in 100 years, this could have been very similar to the Spanish Flu. But its clearly not.
Were there overreactions yes, but that doesnt mean there shouldnt have been any actions to begin with.
No, this was not the Bubonic Plague, anyone acting like it was were totally off base. But dang near every country worldwide shutdown because of this virus. So why do people act as if the US, the 3rd largest country and quite frankly probably has the most inter-country travel in the world, would have been completely fine if we ignored this and pretended it didnt exist.
Its amazing to me the extremes people jump to. No, thank God this wasnt as bad as predicted. Even with mitigation, this is looking to not be as bad as the original experts predicted. But that doesn't nean we should have never taken it seriously to begin with. In select areas like, Italy, Spain, NY, you can tell how bad this virus could have been. Our health officials have been working hard to kick this thing's arse. If it wasn't for how exponentially far modern medicine has come in 100 years, this could have been very similar to the Spanish Flu. But its clearly not.
Were there overreactions yes, but that doesnt mean there shouldnt have been any actions to begin with.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:08 am to QJenk
Are you kidding? Too
Many dead with in 15 miles of here. New York City and New Jersey. Alone
The steps necessary were taken, albeit’after the bs hoax stuff.
Many dead with in 15 miles of here. New York City and New Jersey. Alone
The steps necessary were taken, albeit’after the bs hoax stuff.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:12 am to TigerFanatic99
quote:
suicide
But they likely had other underlying issues so those numbers shouldn’t count.
Or does that argument only work when talking about people who died from the rona?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:50 am to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
So, what would be the top range for recent flu outbreaks he should have use?
Christ dude. He used the top range estimate of COVID deaths in his first 2 numbers and then the mid range of COVID deaths for his last number.
Why didn't he use the top range of the most current?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:04 pm to GetCocky11
Waste of time to debate the shithouse geniuses that want to use hindsight to make their argument about an over reaction.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 12:17 pm
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