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re: Some people don't want to accept the data that shows the Covid impact hasn't been too bad
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:39 am to GetCocky11
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:39 am to GetCocky11
ignorant
0
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:40 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
particular areas should have been shut down. not the entire nation or entire states
See for me, I think that would not have been effective. Americans are highly mobile and all it takes is just a few sick patients to leak into an area that was generally unaffected.
I would have been supportive of federal and state mandates to quarentine specific sets of people with medical conditions. I would have also been OK with governors telling their businesses to take additional precautions and providing tax relief to help cover some of the extra cost.
Providing labor protections (work from home mandates) for those that prove their sensitivity, and also locking down hospitals and nursing homes.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:40 am to LoveThatMoney
quote:
And we can’t social distance our way out of this.
That was never the point. You'll be exposed to it anyway. The current measures are meant to protect health resources and recovery will last longer.
For geographically much of the country, this appears to have been oversold.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:40 am to GetCocky11
I'm gonna be completely honest right now, and I'm sure I'm gonna get downvoted to hell and back. But I don't give a frick about the actual virus any more. If I get sick, I get sick.
I'm really worried about the economics behind it now. I'm personally worried about my own retirement. That personal goal I set for retiring at 63 - yeah frick that. That's probably not happening anymore. I might be lucky to retire at 70 now.
I'm worried about my personal friends who got laid off from nice positions making good money. I'm worried about people who I don't even know who were laid off. I'm worried about businesses/restaurants/bars/etc. who had to close their doors for good.
And the recession that is about to hit us will be like a fricking tsunami coming in.
That's the part that scares the shite out of me. And here's the kicker: the longer we stay shut down, the worse all of that is going to be.
All of that is going to impact everybody participating in this thread MUCH worse than the virus itself. The virus will come and go. The aftermath will make a gigantic financial and economic scar on all of us.
I'm really worried about the economics behind it now. I'm personally worried about my own retirement. That personal goal I set for retiring at 63 - yeah frick that. That's probably not happening anymore. I might be lucky to retire at 70 now.
I'm worried about my personal friends who got laid off from nice positions making good money. I'm worried about people who I don't even know who were laid off. I'm worried about businesses/restaurants/bars/etc. who had to close their doors for good.
And the recession that is about to hit us will be like a fricking tsunami coming in.
That's the part that scares the shite out of me. And here's the kicker: the longer we stay shut down, the worse all of that is going to be.
All of that is going to impact everybody participating in this thread MUCH worse than the virus itself. The virus will come and go. The aftermath will make a gigantic financial and economic scar on all of us.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:40 am to FreddieMac
quote:you have no way of knowing this
Everything you mention, virus not as bad, hospital bed rates below capacity are a RESULT of what we been doing for the past month not in-spite of it.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:41 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
That was never the point. You'll be exposed to it anyway. The current measures are meant to protect health resources and recovery will last longer.
That’s what I’m saying
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:42 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Originally, the data called for 2.2 million Americans to die if nothing was done, then it was pushed down to 240,000 with mitigation. Now the models are saying between 60,000-70,000 Americans will die of COVID-19 this year - which is right in line with a bad influenza outbreak.
But it is still a new way to die. Did the goal posts move? Absolutely. It’s still a football stadium of dead people that wouldn’t be dead otherwise.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:42 am to RealityTiger
quote:
I'm gonna be completely honest right now, and I'm sure I'm gonna get downvoted to hell and back.
Only by the doomcasters, especially the ones that still have a job and can provide for their families.
There are plenty of us here that agree with you that the economic impact these draconian measures will cause will be far, far worse than anything the virus did or will do.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 9:44 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:42 am to Centinel
quote:
This. The blanket approach to slam everything closed, to include parks and beaches, is fricking asinine.
yeah that's the whole thing
saying that we did too much and should open things back up doesn't mean that has to be 100%. no, NYC should not open up anytime soon. Nola probably should wait a few weeks at best as well
but Houston? Lafayette? Lake Charles? etc. no reason to remain closed knowing what we know now
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:43 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
They shutdown harder and earlier than NY though.
what are the comparable dates? I think SF was open well into February
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:44 am to LSU alum wannabe
quote:
It’s still a football stadium of dead people that wouldn’t be dead otherwise.
Do you think we should shut down the economy every time a contagious disease spreads across the country?
Using that slippery slope, why do we allow many things we allow?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:44 am to greygoose
quote:
The worst part of it is that we have no fricking herd immunity because we have been sheltering in place, so when we go back to work, we’re going to see another spike.
Yep.
Can't argue with that
I often wonder how "costly" herd immunity will be before it's actually effective.
Let's look at something that happened hundreds of years ago when westerners came to the Americas and the Colombian Exchange killed 2/3 of the indigenous people
Obviously modern medicine would stop that particular doomsday scenario from happening but we certainly would see a high death toll before achieving herd immunity.
It's pretty interesting how even after nearly 500 years of human evolution, mother nature still finds a way to kill us through the global exchange of regionally born diseases
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 9:46 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:44 am to Tigeralum2008
quote:
Americans are highly mobile and all it takes is just a few sick patients to leak into an area that was generally unaffected.
using more resources to quarantine these areas would have stopped most of that spread
people were still allowed to leave NYC. hell i think they still are
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:45 am to ell_13
Pardon me. Johns Hopkins right now is 147k dead worldwide.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:48 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Originally, the data called for 2.2 million Americans to die if nothing was done, then it was pushed down to 240,000 with mitigation. Now the models are saying between 60,000-70,000 Americans will die of COVID-19 this year - which is right in line with a bad influenza outbreak.
THIS and a god damned gump came up with the point.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:50 am to SlowFlowPro
SF closed about a week before NYC when they had way less confirmed cases per capita vs NYC.
Going off the data from IHME, California as a whole closed on the 19th. NYC closed a few days later.
All the data we have from past pandemics around the world shows that shutting down BEFORE a spike in cases/deaths will lead that location to fare pretty well. Shutting down in response to a spike in cases/deaths means you fricked up and are too late. That's what happened in NYC.
Going off the data from IHME, California as a whole closed on the 19th. NYC closed a few days later.
All the data we have from past pandemics around the world shows that shutting down BEFORE a spike in cases/deaths will lead that location to fare pretty well. Shutting down in response to a spike in cases/deaths means you fricked up and are too late. That's what happened in NYC.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 9:53 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:51 am to Pelican fan99
quote:
Everything you mention, virus not as bad, hospital bed rates below capacity are a RESULT of what we been doing for the past month not in-spite of it.
you have no way of knowing this
That argument goes both ways.
We failed to learn our lessen from the previous SARS outbreak in 2002-3... We should have studied the effectiveness of different response strategies then and come up with a smarter plan for today's pandemic.
Today's political leaders were flying by the seats of their pants which often leads to choosing a roundabout solution over a data driven decision
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 10:01 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:51 am to Tigersonfire
quote:
Originally, the data called for 2.2 million Americans to die if nothing was done, then it was pushed down to 240,000 with mitigation. Now the models are saying between 60,000-70,000 Americans will die of COVID-19 this year - which is right in line with a bad influenza outbreak.
If you're going to use the top range for your first 2 numbers, you probably shouldn't use the average/median range for your last one. Makes you look disingenuous.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:52 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Do you think we should shut down the economy every time a contagious disease spreads across the country?
Probably not. Depends on the outbreak? Ebola? You bet your fricking arse the economy should shut down.
Idk what will be done with future pandemics. Hope it’s never to this scale. Maybe keeping gatherings under 50. Letting business run as usual even essential has problems. Tyson chicken has what, 286 sick in one plant?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:53 am to JohnnyKilroy
CDC just released the numbers
34,000 less americans died in March this year than the average for March from 2012-2019
34,000 less americans died in March this year than the average for March from 2012-2019
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