re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding

Posted by Costanza

Member since May 2011

3273 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:43 pm to tiger91

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 88.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 3:44 pm

Posted by Funky Tide 8

Bayou Chico

Member since Feb 2009

56840 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:44 pm to antibarner

My gf is worried about her families boat on Ono. Its on a lift under a boat house...or it was on a lift under boat house at least.

Posted by LSURussian

Member since Feb 2005

134808 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:44 pm to doubleb

quote:
The NHC hadn’t done a good job with Sally. It’s been a hard storm for them to get right. The original prediction had the storm weaker and moving NW at the La./Miss. border right now.

I agree. My point was I don't understand the reluctance to simply acknowledge when the NWS & NHC get a forecast wrong.

Or, why some people's feelings get hurt whenever anyone says those groups missed a forecast. I don't expect them to get every forecast right on the money.

Posted by SlidellCajun

Slidell la

Member since May 2019

16382 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:45 pm to Duke

How far out do hurricane force winds go on Sally?

Posted by tilco

Spanish Fort, AL

Member since Nov 2013

14473 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:45 pm to Funky Tide 8

quote:
My gf is worried about her families boat on Ono. Its on a lift under a boat house...or it was on a lift under boat house at least.

Why didn’t they get it out?

Posted by slackster

Houston

Member since Mar 2009

91838 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:45 pm to LSURussian

quote:
My price cone for TSLA shows it will close between $375 - $525 tomorrow.

And that's with a 95% degree of confidence...

Only +/- 16% one day out?

That’s like a cone from Brownsville to Sea Island, GA.

But seriously, you have to appreciate the complexity of weather, even 48 hours out.

Posted by Duke

Dillon, CO

Member since Jan 2008

36494 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:45 pm to antibarner

quote:
Some of the models are turning it NE just as it reaches the coast which looks sound to me at the moment.

Depends on how slow it keeps moving. It'll turn NE at some point tomorrow morning I think, just matters where it is when it does. That's kind of been the story the entire time with Sally.

Posted by Klingler7

Houston

Member since Nov 2009

12620 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:45 pm to SlidellCajun

45 miles

Posted by geauxtigers87

Louisiana

Member since Mar 2011

27416 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:46 pm to Costanza

I wish they would cut down on the flashy adjective usage like historic

Posted by Roll Tide Ravens

Birmingham, AL

Member since Nov 2015

51685 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:46 pm to Duke

Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger

Member since Nov 2012

36754 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:46 pm to slackster

quote:
It will likely miss the cone. I’m a big picture guy though, so I don’t get too caught up when the center of a storm misses by 150 miles considering the circumstances.

This. This is all I ever wanted. People were being shite on in the Laura thread (I wasn't one) for saying Laura could hit Vermillion (it was said that that would have been a giant miss 48 hours out). Nailed down was used plenty of times. In the case of Laura, it was nailed down. People in OB who thought this was nailed down to Grand Isle on Sunday night are having a pretty shitty time inside 48 hours from that

Posted by Palmetto08

Member since Sep 2012

4129 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:47 pm to Duke

quote:
Depends on how slow it keeps moving. It'll turn NE at some point tomorrow morning I think, just matters where it is when it does. That's kind of been the story the entire time with Sally.

Possible Pensacola landfall or further east?

Posted by McGregor

Member since Feb 2011

7059 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:48 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger

nothing under a beach house fares well during a hurricane.

Posted by Roll Tide Ravens

Birmingham, AL

Member since Nov 2015

51685 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:48 pm to Roll Tide Ravens

Interesting note, if Hurricane Sally does make landfall in Alabama it will be the first hurricane to make landfall in Alabama since Hurricane Ivan in 2004.

Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger

Member since Nov 2012

36754 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:49 pm to McGregor

quote:
nothing under a beach house fares well during a hurricane.

Disagree. Plenty of slabs left in biloxi to prove my point

Posted by Duke

Dillon, CO

Member since Jan 2008

36494 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:49 pm to Palmetto08

quote:
Possible Pensacola landfall or further east?

I don't think it gets east of Pensacola.

Posted by slackster

Houston

Member since Mar 2009

91838 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:49 pm to geauxtigers87

quote:
wish they would cut down on the flashy adjective usage like historic

Probably looking at 100 or 250 year floods. You could almost call it, I don’t know, historic?

Posted by Funky Tide 8

Bayou Chico

Member since Feb 2009

56840 posts

Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:50 pm to tilco

quote:
My gf is worried about her families boat on Ono. Its on a lift under a boat house...or it was on a lift under boat house at least.

Why didn’t they get it out?

Don't even get me started...