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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:28 pm to MrLarson
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:28 pm to MrLarson
So while we wait for the next update...weather in Gulf Shores next Week. Will this system suck the moister out and leave clear skies and cooler air?
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 3:54 pm
1
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:28 pm to Large Farva
quote:
Y’all have been bitching about the cone for the last thirty pages. Who said what and calling them out. It doesn’t matter.
Sure, but the storm isn’t being ignored or anything. If people want information, the OP has it. If they have a question, it will be answered.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:29 pm to Duke
They do at times have some real issues with intensity, and they admit it.
I know it isn't quite the same thing, but it amazes me how we can't pin down storms like this, yet they want me to buy into theories like climate change like it's settled science.
I know it isn't quite the same thing, but it amazes me how we can't pin down storms like this, yet they want me to buy into theories like climate change like it's settled science.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:30 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Reports coming in from mobile bay are not bad. Windy but the bay is not surging.
Far from an expert but when I look at the cameras it seems the wind is going east to west because it's still sitting offshore. Once it moved in the wind direction will change and start pushing the water inland, and into the bay.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 3:54 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:31 pm to NOLAGT
quote:
Far from an expert but when I look at the camera by my condo it seems the wind is going east to west because it's still sitting offshore. Once it moved in the wind direction will change and start pushing the water inland, and into the bay.
Yeah she ain’t here yet
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:31 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Which is dumb. They should be able to widen it based on uncertainty.
The uncertainly is baked into the warning system.
The warning should cover all areas 36 hours out.
That's why the warning area is bigger than the cone.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:32 pm to NOLAGT
quote:
Will this system suck the moister out and leave up with nice clear skies and cooler air?
Go ask folks in LC how much cooler and drier it has been there since Laura
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:32 pm to LSURussian
quote:
The landfall cone was over 250 miles wide when the starting point off of Miami was only 650 miles away.
The NHC hadn’t done a good job with Sally. It’s been a hard storm for them to get right. The original prediction had the storm weaker and moving NW at the La./Miss. border right now.
But they did a great job with Laura. It’s best to get the big ones tight.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:33 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Sally actually looks a little better organized this afternoon, at least on radar.
That north side is rocking and rolling this afternoon for sure. South end is still anemic but it's actually close to a full circle of rain around it. Recon did pick up some solid winds in the SE end.
Pressure is probably down to 981-980.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:34 pm to doubleb
Recon got a 980, the pressure has been slowly falling and it looks to my untrained eye like we have a north or just east of north movement, slow as it may be.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 3:36 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:36 pm to antibarner
quote:
ooding by antibarner
They do at times have some real issues with intensity, and they admit it.
And a storm’s intensity will often determine where the storm will go.
Sally doesn’t strengthen as much as it did Monday it probably would have been close to the La./Miss. border by now.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:37 pm to antibarner
Which storm chaser is in a black SUV with Arizona plates? Raining sideways so I couldn’t read the decals. He’s at The Hangout
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:38 pm to Duke
quote:
That north side is rocking and rolling this afternoon for sure. South end is still anemic but it's actually close to a full circle of rain around it. Recon did pick up some solid winds in the SE end.
Remember radar can’t easily penetrate and see everything on the south side.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:38 pm to slackster
quote:My price cone for TSLA shows it will close between $375 - $525 tomorrow.
ou’re a money guy, right?
Tell me what the price of TSLA will be 1 day out
And that's with a 95% degree of confidence...
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:38 pm to antibarner
Due north. Westside is improving (in terms of the storm's health). Models have all wanted to strengthen some on the move north and that might just be starting in earnest.
80 mph. 980 mb. Expecting that to be the 4:00 update. With improving structure, will probably stick with the 85 mph max and shift a little east to Mobile Bay or even Fort Morgan.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:39 pm to rds dc
Mobile regional airport winds currently Northeast 26 mph . Highest Gust past hour : 55 mph
Rainfall since midnight CDT : 1.08 inches.
Rainfall since midnight CDT : 1.08 inches.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 3:40 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:39 pm to doubleb
quote:
The NHC hadn’t done a good job with Sally. It’s been a hard storm for them to get right. The original prediction had the storm weaker and moving NW at the La./Miss. border right now.
But they did a great job with Laura. It’s best to get the big ones tight.
NHC cone was awful for Laura.
Sally will miss one single cone. That’s it. Y’all are making this a far bigger deal than it is.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:40 pm to doubleb
quote:
Remember radar can’t easily penetrate and see everything on the south side.
sigh.
I promise I know that.
I was looking at the LIX radar and the recon to support that idea. It's certainly improving though on the south end.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:41 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Go ask folks in LC how much cooler and drier it has been there since Laura
The unfortunate devastation in LC is going to be a bit different than what GS is going to take. After Katrina we had some really clear days that followed from what I remember. I had seen someone else saying it was going to be cooler a few post back so I was just wondering.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:41 pm to Duke
That it is. Some of the models are turning it NE just as it reaches the coast which looks sound to me at the moment.
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