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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:19 pm to bigpapamac
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:19 pm to bigpapamac
I just want everyone in SELA to know that it was my selfless action that steered this storm... Once I lay down the basketball goal there's a 0% chance that anything will develop to justify my actions.
You're all welcome.
You're all welcome.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 3:20 pm
0
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:19 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
wasn’t in the cone
Cone of what
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:20 pm to rds dc
quote:
But don't worry, I'm sure there'll be plenty more for people to complain about next week with potentially another Gulf system on tap.
Come again?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:20 pm to lesthemadhatter
quote:
Pensacola question here - how do you think the weather will be around there on Thursday evening/Friday morning?
Probably a bit cloudy and cooler.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:20 pm to BradC
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:20 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Mobile wasn’t in the cone 48 hours ago? WTF?
They were under a hurricane watch/warning though.
The cone has nothing to do with the confidence in a given track. It’s not dynamic for every storm. It’s the same size all year.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:20 pm to slackster
quote:
The cone has nothing to do with the confidence in a given track. It’s not dynamic for every storm. It’s the same size all year.
Which is dumb. They should be able to widen it based on uncertainty.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:21 pm to BRgetthenet
quote:
Cone of what
I'm thinking vanilla with some toppings
Gotta be waffle though
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:22 pm to Cosmo
If I started a hurricane cone debate thread would y’all please move your shite there?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:22 pm to tilco
Wonder if the VRBO owner will still come let us stay the weekend.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:24 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
So one out of three times, it will be outside the cone.
We're talking any cone at any point in time too.
Typically the misses are early on, when you have a developing storm or a situation like this with weak steering and subtle things really make a difference there. For Sally, it was both.
It was tough, it missed on Sunday but everything quickly corrected and Mobile got some lead time to prep. It was tough to get this exactly right, and the standard in 2020 has gotten pretty high because of how often the NHC gets the forecast very right days in advance.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:24 pm to geauxtigers87
quote:
Come again?
I'd have to rewind a good ways to find it but the Atlantic is slap full of tropical storms.
Mary and Joseph couldn't get in right now.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:25 pm to Large Farva
quote:
If I started a hurricane cone debate thread would y’all please move your shite there?
If you have a question about the storm, ask it. People bitch about the side conversation, but everything is being answered in this thread.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:25 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Mobile solidly within cone? Timing just way off
With the five day cone starting near Beaumont, Texas and ending near Apalachicola, Florida it’s no mean feat to have the storm reach land in the cone.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:25 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Mobile solidly within cone?
The landfall cone was over 250 miles wide when the starting point off of Miami was only 650 miles away.
Not exactly pinpoint accuracy....
If you tell me the Gulf landfall cone was ultimately accurate when the system formed 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, then I'd be damn impressed!
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:26 pm to TigahJay
Sally actually looks a little better organized this afternoon, at least on radar.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:26 pm to slackster
Y’all have been bitching about the cone for the last thirty pages. Who said what and calling them out. It doesn’t matter.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:26 pm to geauxtigers87
Yes, there is potential for another system with that disturb area in the southern Gulf got time to watch it just gonna meander for a while.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:26 pm to tiger91
Reports coming in from mobile bay are not bad. Windy but the bay is not surging.
I’m thinking the next update will be an East shift toward a gulf shores /oba shore.
I’m thinking the next update will be an East shift toward a gulf shores /oba shore.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:27 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Which is dumb. They should be able to widen it based on uncertainty.
I agree. Always have felt that way. Very few folks are reading NHC discussions to understand how high or low the actual confidence is.
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