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Started By
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1
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:11 pm to The Boat
This light windy rain in Gretna... can we call this a Sally band?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:11 pm to The Boat
Cone is created based on 95% confidence interval from prior storm projections
So 5% of the time they will be wrong and outside a cone
Why do you hate science?
So 5% of the time they will be wrong and outside a cone
Why do you hate science?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:12 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Cone is created based on 95% confidence interval from prior storm projections
It's 66% of the error range over the past five years.
Which, unfortunately, doesn't correct for the actual uncertainty of a forecast.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:13 pm to The Boat
quote:
The NHC track Sunday had it going through Hammond.
Yes, it did. They’ll probably miss by 150 miles or so 60 hours out. 1.74 standard deviations from typical miss at that mark. A miss you’d expect about 1 in every 13 forecasts.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:13 pm to McGregor
quote:
I get my weather news here
Certainly get far more detailed information here than most places on tv. It’s why I wish this bitching about the cone would go elsewhere while some of us are still expecting to get the worst of this thing.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:13 pm to rds dc
quote:
But don't worry, I'm sure there'll be plenty more for people to complain about next week with potentially another Gulf system on tap.
You killing me smalls
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:14 pm to slackster
as long as you can admit they missed this one dude. I'm cool with it but you defend everything it seems
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:14 pm to Cosmo
That’s a non sequitur
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:14 pm to Duke
Finally starting to get some rain in Nola
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:14 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Cone is created based on 95% confidence interval from prior storm projections
Not 95%. Not even close actually. 95% cone would have captured Mobile and then some.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:15 pm to tgrbaitn08
This thread has gone off the deep end now.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:15 pm to bigpapamac
quote:
Certainly get far more detailed information here than most places on tv. It’s why I wish this bitching about the cone would go elsewhere while some of us are still expecting to get the worst of this thing.
This is the typical bullshite before the big update at 4 on here. Models are done, got one plane in waiting for a pass, so people bitch about the cone.
You Mobile/PCola baws, got any questions, just ask.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:16 pm to Mr Perfect
quote:
as long as you can admit they missed this one dude. I'm cool with it but you defend everything it seems
It will likely miss the cone. I’m a big picture guy though, so I don’t get too caught up when the center of a storm misses by 150 miles considering the circumstances.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:16 pm to Duke
Pensacola question here - how do you think the weather will be around there on Thursday evening/Friday morning?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:17 pm to Duke
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:17 pm to Duke
quote:
Duke
You and the others do a great job
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:18 pm to Duke
quote:
It's 66% of the error range over the past five years.
Which, unfortunately, doesn't correct for the actual uncertainty of a forecast.
So one out of three times, it will be outside the cone.
We are on named storm 20, right, so that means 6 or 7 times so far this year, we should be outside the cone.
People want more precision, but that might not be possible given current tech and science.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:18 pm to lsupride87
quote:
lsupride87
Starting to pick up a good bit down there. Still not too bad......yet.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:18 pm to BRgetthenet
Mobile wasn’t in the cone 48 hours ago? WTF?
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